A Skeptic’s Best Guess On Final Map
Originally from our 2022-05-29 Report
Updated
This remains our best guess
The Red line is current Russian border. The Yellow line is current battle line. The Green line is Moldova government held border. The Aqua line is worst case new south eastern border for Ukraine. The Fuchsia line is minimum northwest border for New Russia.
The logic is based on possible political support. Russia likely has little desire to hold territory where popular support is unlikely to be achieved. It would require too much ongoing military support to subdue unrest. It is likely that Russia wishes to avoid an insurgency after the conflict. For that reason, and others, Russia will have little desire to seize Western Ukraine. The current mandate in Russia does not include seizing Western Ukraine.
In the elections prior to the 2014 coup, areas south and east of the Fuchsia line aligned with the pro Russia candidate by 60% to 93%. It can be argued that previous pro Russian support will have been weakened by war. It can also be argued that previous Western supporters will have likely fled areas controlled by Russia.
The area between the Fuchsia line and the Aqua line is unpredictable. It had 60% to 70% support for the pro Western candidate. Never the less, the area has vital strategic interests. The biggest interest is the Kremenchuk Hydroelectric Power Plant. Aside from energy interests, failure to secure that dam would leave the downstream area vulnerable. The area may end up as a heavily fortified no mans land where NATO insurgents and soldiers of fortune come to fight Russians.
The area between the Green and Fuchsia line is Transnistria. It will be part of New Russia in some form.
In addition to the political maps, we should consider the language maps of Ukraine. Russia is unlikely to leave behind large populations of native Russian speakers.
Feel free to comment please!
I wish they would publish this on the front page of the NYTimes, so there could be a rational discussion. One point on the end game- how does the West perpetuate an endless war, as it is in their interest to do so? How does Russia avoid an endless war? Any ideas?
The map seems about right but I believe that NovoRussyia will eventually extend up tthe Dneiper before passing by and isolating Kiev and eventually bordering with Belarus. There is no way Russia proper will ever let Ukraine border on its western front again.2