A Skeptic's Best Guess On Final Map

Last Updated 2023-06-15

Our previous Best Guess was based on a political solution. It’s clear now that lives lost is not a factor. A political solution is now all but ruled out. The west wants to bleed Russia, without any particular strategy. The west will fight to the last Ukrainian Soldier and Polish Mercenary.

When envisioning a final map, we must take into consideration the SMO stated goals, and these other factors.

1. A peaceful settlement is no longer possible.

2. Ukraine shells civilians and nuclear power plants. A buffer zone and defensible terrain is needed.

3. Ukraine will use the Dnieper River water supplies as a tactical weapon. Control of the dams on the river is required to remove the threat downstream.

4. Strikes on Russia from Ukraine controlled Oblasts east of the Dnieper are too much of a threat without a settlement. A buffer is needed.

5. Outside of a peaceful settlement, the post war Ukraine economy will need to be subdued to keep the threat down. Loss of all ports and eastern agriculture will help accomplish that.

6. Large numbers of civilians have fled areas east of the Dnieper. Those remaining are more likely to accept Russian control.

7. Sharing a river border with Kiev will give Russia tactical leverage should it be needed. Exchanging shells across the new border will have far greater consequences for Ukraine, with Kiev on the front line.

Our map sees the Dnieper River as the border in the north from Belarus to Cherkasy, and then a relatively straight line from Cherkasy to the northern border of Transnistria. The Red Line. The line from Cherkasy to Transnistria will follow defensible terrain, but otherwise be as short as practical. This map affords a river barrier, river control, buffer territory, and a minimal front line. It incorporates all of the desired territory Russia seeks. It makes the most sense outside of a political settlement.

The Red Line is our Best Guess for a military conclusion.

The Purple Line is our Best Guess for what Russia would consider part of Russia. Areas to the east and south will be annexed. Areas between the Red Line and the Purple Line will be occupied and serve as a buffer.

It is unlikely that Russia will remain in areas west of the Red Line. Those areas are politically unfavorable and economically undesirable.

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