A Skeptic's Best Guess On Final Map (Updated)

Updated 2023-02-23

Our old take:

A Skeptic’s Best Guess On Final Map

Our revised take:

Out initial Best Guess On Final Map could still happen, but is becoming unlikely. Our initial map leaned heavily on a political compromise where Ukraine conceded territory of majority Russian speakers. The assumption was that Ukraine would rather sue for peace than lose so many lives, and that Russia would rather not govern regions more hostile to Russia.

It’s clear now that lives lost is not a factor. The west wants to bleed Russia. The west will fight to the last Ukrainian Soldier and Polish Mercenary.

We must now take into consideration other factors.

1. A peaceful settlement is no longer possible.

2. Ukraine shells civilians and nuclear power plants. A buffer zone is needed.

3. Ukraine will use the Dnieper River water supplies as a tactical weapon. Control of the dams on the river is required to remove the threat downstream.

4. Strikes on Russia from Ukraine controlled Oblasts east of the Dnieper are too much of a threat without a settlement. A buffer is needed.

5. Outside of a strong settlement, the post war Ukraine economy will need to be subdued to keep the threat down. Loss of all ports and eastern agriculture will help accomplish that.

6. Large numbers of civilians have fled areas east of the Dnieper. Those remaining are more likely to accept Russian control.

7. Sharing a river border with Kiev will give Russia tactical leverage should it be needed. Exchanging shells across the new border will have far greater consequences for Ukraine, with Kiev on the front line.

Our new map sees the Dnieper River as the border in the north from Belarus to Cherkasy, and then a relatively straight line from Cherkasy to the northern border of Transnistria. The red line. This map affords a river barrier, river control, buffer territory, and a minimal front line. It incorporates all of the desired territory Russia seeks. It makes the most sense outside of a political settlement.

The best guess on the battle progression is as follows:

Massed Russian forces in Belgorod (1) will launch a major offensive west and south. Control of the Dnieper River and Ukraine resupply routes will be the priority. Kharkov, Sumy, and other areas will be cut off and taken after. Some of the massed Russian forces from the south will move northward as a pincer. The west will have difficulty rallying additional outrage so far. Most citizens in the west will not see the significance.

Russian troops are also massed in Belarus (2). These forces potentially could be used to split western Ukraine in half. To do so, they would move south, far west of Kiev, to cut off western resupply. Just that threat forces Ukraine to keep significant forces on that border, thus denying their deployment in the east. The force in Belarus also serves to threaten any NATO push into Ukraine, should that happen.

Once the East West front has progressed sufficiently, the best opportunity for a push on Odessa presents itself. Attacking from the south (3) involves several major river barriers and entrenched fortifications. If Ukraine still resists, this would be difficult and bloody for both sides. In this event, Russia could make a major push from Belarus (2). Such a push would happen far west of Kiev, bypassing it, and heading straight for Odessa, Mykolaiv and Kherson’s west bank. Mykolaiv and Kherson’s west bank will need to be a top priority, as it opens an east west resupply route that is far shorter and less vulnerable than north south from Belarus. This operation will generate major alarm and outrage in the west. It needs to be fast and decisive, and needs to disentangle Belarus swiftly. The west is unlikely to tolerate a large Russian presence in Western Ukraine for very long. A north south supply route west of Kiev would be very difficult to maintain.

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