A Skeptic's Best Guess On Final Map (Updated)
Updated 2023-02-23
Our old take:
Our revised take:
Out initial Best Guess On Final Map could still happen, but is becoming unlikely. Our initial map leaned heavily on a political compromise where Ukraine conceded territory of majority Russian speakers. The assumption was that Ukraine would rather sue for peace than lose so many lives, and that Russia would rather not govern regions more hostile to Russia.
It’s clear now that lives lost is not a factor. The west wants to bleed Russia. The west will fight to the last Ukrainian Soldier and Polish Mercenary.
We must now take into consideration other factors.
A peaceful settlement is no longer possible.
Ukraine shells civilians and nuclear power plants. A buffer zone is needed.
Ukraine will use the Dnieper River water supplies as a tactical weapon. Control of the dams on the river is required to remove the threat downstream.
Strikes on Russia from Ukraine controlled Oblasts eas…
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