Battlefield Update - 2023-04-11 (1)
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🖇 About leaking secret American documents - Rybar's analysis
Last week, photos and documents marked SECRET and TOP SECRET (“secret” and “top secret”) unexpectedly appeared on the Web, which reflected data on the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the spring-summer campaign, from the training of Ukrainian formations to the deadlines supply of arms to Ukraine.
It is pointless to go into details of what is specifically written in these documents, since all the contents have already been sufficiently analyzed by our colleagues from the channels War History Weapons, Search ZVI, as well as LostArmour specialists.
Rybar's team will focus only on a few important points, in our opinion.
🔻 How true is this data?
It's no secret that over the past few months, Western countries have been preparing Ukrainian formations for an offensive. On the basis of the structure of the joint armed forces of NATO, two army corps were formed as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which included, among other things, the brigades indicated in the documents.
If we look at the dates of the preliminary completion of the preparation of new formations and the transfer of weapons and military equipment, we can conclude that the information as of the end of February was not far from reality. Getting this information in the public domain is not such a big problem: for example, we wrote about this back in early February.
However, in reality, the deadlines have changed a long time ago: various difficulties arose somewhere in manpower, somewhere in the supply of equipment and other weapons.
❗️According to the results, only 47, 67, 117 and 118 Smbre are now fully combat-ready, for the rest, the date of full staffing was postponed to May-June of this year, and the 5th brigade to December.
🔻So this data is real?
The leaked lists at the end of February indicated only nine brigades being formed, but in fact, more than 20 formations were being trained at various training grounds in Ukraine and in Western countries. And ready for the beginning of April:
▪️9 AK
➖47 smbre
➖67 smbre
➖3 sshbr
➖1 arr of special forces
➖4 selection
▪️10 AK
➖115 smbre
➖116 smbre
➖117 smbre
➖118 smbre
The 21st, 22nd ombr of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and 77th sambr of the DShV of Ukraine are equipped. At the moment, the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the state have 12 combat-ready formations (to one degree or another), which are quite realistic to use in the spring-summer campaign. And 13 more are in the process of formation.
🔻For what purpose could the documents be published?
Other "leaked" documents dealt with obvious things, for example, the fact that the United States is listening to the leadership of South Korea. Separate documents talked about the lack of shells, failures in the products of the Western defense industry and the general "unpreparedness" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
And luckily, just a couple of weeks before the large-scale counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, such convenient TOP SECRET files appeared on the Web. It all looks like a controlled leak and a massive disinformation campaign.
This is also confirmed by the large-scale information support from the media giants The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, CNN and others, who are trying to overtake each other in an attempt to show how uncombat-ready the Armed Forces of Ukraine are and in every possible way encourage the Russian military-political leadership to make a mistake.
While in Russia they relish the lack of armored vehicles or anti-aircraft missiles in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the West continues to supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Public demonstration of the southern regions as the main attack vector (however obvious) can be a red herring.
The offensive may even begin somewhere in the Belgorod or Bryansk region. In the Kharkiv region, near the border with the Russian Federation, a multi-thousand grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is noted, including a unit of the 67th SMB.
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Highlights of Russian Military Operation in Ukraine on April 10
▪️Another exchange of prisoners of war took place at the border of Belgorod and Sumy Regions.
106 Russian servicemen will be taken to Moscow by military transport aircraft for further treatment and rehabilitation.
▪️The situation in Kup’yans’k sector has not changed significantly. Positional fighting is taking place along the entire front line.
Russian artillery is striking at enemy concentrations in Novoselivs'ke and Dvorichna.
▪️In the area of Makiivka and Balka Zhuravka, Russian troops took several strongholds, advancing further west.
It is expected that in the next few days AFU will launch counteroffensive in this area.
▪️In the area of Bogdanivka, Wagner PMC fighters continue their attack on AFU positions, trying to cut the road to Bakhmut.
At the same time, massive artillery strikes are being launched against discovered enemy positions in Chasiv Yar.
▪️Russian forces are in active offensive in the centre of Bakhmut along the entire line of contact.
Buildings to the north of the police station have been taken under control and heavy fighting continues near the railway station.
▪️Ukrainian formations continue to deliver artillery strikes on towns and settlements in Donetsk agglomeration.
A direct hit on a residential building was recorded in Yasynuvata and two people were wounded in Verkhn'otorets'ke as a result of the shelling.
▪️In Mar’inka, after aligning the front line along Druzhba Avenue, fighting is taking place near the tire-repair plant.
As a result of the successful actions of Russian motorized riflemen, the remaining buildings in Mar’inka industrial zone have been taken under control.
#digest #Russia #Ukraine #video
🇫🇷🇨🇳 On the results of the meeting between Emmanuel Macron and Xi Jinping
The statements made by French President Emmanuel Macron during negotiations with Chinese President Xi Jinping are still being discussed in the Western media.
Last week, Macron and Xi Jinping, in addition to the Ukrainian topic, discussed that they do not want the growing problems in relations between China and the United States to become an obstacle to Sino-European cooperation.
According to Macron, a "balanced, efficient and sustainable architecture of European security" should become the key to maintaining effective interaction between China and European countries.
Interest in the meeting was also fueled by the words of the French leader, made immediately after his return, that Europe needs to reduce its dependence on the United States.
Some experts even started talking about changing the vector of French foreign policy.
🔻 What reaction did Macron's words cause in the world?
Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a political scientist at Hong Kong Baptist University, is confident that "in the context of the deepening Cold War with China, Macron definitely wants to go against the grain." The words of the President of France impressed him so much that he even compared the leader with Charles de Gaulle.
The New York Times writes that "the need for a new European architecture implicitly calls into question the activities of the North Atlantic Alliance."
Some politicians in the US and Europe also criticized Macron for saying that Europe should not interfere in the situation with Taiwan (and thus spoil relations with China).
🔻 So should we expect changes in the political course of France?
Our French colleagues @actualiteFR are sure that statements about an alleged change of course towards national interests are an ordinary event in French foreign policy.
▪️ Macron once a year throws in the thesis about Europe's autonomy from the United States in exactly the same words, while in reality the situation does not change at all.
▪️The @awaken_dragon channel adds that the meeting of the two leaders should be more like a business meeting than a discussion of political topics. Together with Macron, representatives of several dozen French companies came to China: Airbus, Electricite de France, Alstom, L'Oreal and others.
The agreements reached are of great importance for the French economy, but will not have a significant impact on EU policy.
Macron's predecessors also managed to stir up the minds of all kinds of experts, voicing bold theses.
François Mitterrand spoke about the "war between France and America", Francois Hollande - about the intention to create a military alliance with Russia to fight terrorists in Syria.
Finally, Emmanuel Macron himself appeared on the front pages of major publications three years ago, saying that "NATO's brain is dead."
🔻Therefore, there is no reason to believe that the French authorities are planning to reduce the influence of the decisions of the White House on their own policy. On the contrary, the trend is exactly the opposite, and Macron's statements are only intended to lull the vigilance of the French inhabitants.
#China #USA #France
