Battlefield Update - 2023-06-24 (3)
Last reports say it's over.
Earlier today:
Battlefield Update - 2023-06-24 (1)
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Currently:
Any information from MSM, Twitter and Telegram during this rebellion event should be considered suspect. This is likely a mix of reality and Psyop. The rebellion is real, the stories resulting from it are likely western PsyOp. We’re going to stick with sources we have found to be more trustworthy in the long term.
Our quick and amateur analysis is this. Putin’s stated goals should be taken at face value. He wanted to de-militarize and de-Nazify Ukraine. Prigozhin’s chief complaint for some time appears to be how Wagner is treated.
To achieve the stated goals, a lot of Ukraine soldiers need to be defeated. To do that, and maintain popular support domestically, Putin is using Wagner to do the bloodiest work. Wagner losses are far more politically acceptable than regular RU military losses. Our analysis is that Prigozhin is unhappy that Wagner is being treated like cannon fodder, while regular RU forces are possibly held mostly in reserve.
It is entirely possible that this began as more of a protest on the part of Prigozhin. The intent was possibly to have a Wagner convoy go to Moscow and make demands.
The full text of Vladimir Putin's address (https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51987) to the citizens of Russia:
I appeal to the citizens of Russia, to the personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement agencies and special services, to the soldiers and commanders who are now fighting at their battle positions, repelling the enemy's attacks and doing so heroically—I know, I spoke again tonight with the commanders of all directions. I am also addressing those who have been lured into this criminal enterprise and pushed onto the path of the gravest crime—armed mutiny—through deceit or threats.
Russia today is fighting an uphill battle for its future, repelling the aggression of the neo-Nazis and their masters. Virtually the entire military, economic and information machine of the West is directed against us. We are fighting for the lives and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence. For the right to be and remain Russia—a state with a thousand-year history.
This battle, when the fate of our people is being decided, requires the unity of all forces, unity, consolidation, and responsibility. When everything that weakens us, any kind of discord, which our external enemies can and do use to undermine us from inside, must be put aside.
And so the actions that split our unity are, in essence, an apostasy from our people, from our comrades-in-arms who are now fighting on the frontlines. It is a stab in the back of our country and our people.
This is exactly the blow that was dealt to Russia in 1917, when the country fought the First World War. But the victory was stolen from her. Intrigues, squabbles, politicking behind the backs of the army and the people resulted in the greatest shock, the destruction of the army and the disintegration of the state, the loss of vast territories. The result was the tragedy of the civil war.
The Russians killed the Russians, the brothers killed their brothers, and the lucrative interests were reaped by all kinds of political adventurers and foreign forces who divided the country and tore it apart.
We will not allow this to happen again. We will protect both our people and our statehood against all threats. Including internal treachery.
And what we have faced is precisely betrayal. Excessive ambitions and vested interests have led to treason. Betrayal of their country, their people, and the cause for which the fighters and commanders of Wagner fought and died alongside our other units. The heroes who liberated Soledar and Artemovsk, towns and villages of Donbass, fought and gave their lives for Novorossiya, for the unity of the Russian world. Their name and glory have also been betrayed by those who are trying to organise rebellion, pushing the country towards anarchy and fratricide. To defeat, ultimately, and capitulation.
I repeat, any internal turmoil is a mortal threat to our statehood, to us as a nation. It is a blow to Russia, to our people. And our actions to defend the Fatherland against such a threat will be tough. Everyone who deliberately chose the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed insurrection, who chose the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer an inevitable punishment, they will be held accountable both before the law and before our people.
The Armed Forces and other government agencies have received the necessary orders, and additional anti-terrorist measures are being introduced in Moscow, the Moscow region, and a number of other regions. Decisive action will also be taken to stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains complex, with the work of the civilian and military authorities effectively blocked.
As the President of Russia and Commander-in-Chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do my utmost to defend the country, to protect the constitutional order, the lives, security, and freedom of its citizens.
...continued below (https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51992)...
The full text of Vladimir Putin's address (https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51987) to the citizens of Russia:
...continued from above (https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51991)...
Those who organized and prepared the military uprising, who raised arms against their comrades-in-arms, have betrayed Russia. And they will be held accountable for it. And I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make the fatal and tragic, an irreversible mistake, and to make the only right choice - to stop participating in criminal actions.
I believe that we will preserve and defend what is dear and sacred to us, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any trials, we will become even stronger.
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🤜🤘👍
"SMO" may be superseded by "CTO"
In case anyone missed it, regardless of what you believe on how real or not this whole Prigozhin story is, within the message delivered by the President were these important words:
"...additional anti-terrorist measures are being introduced in Moscow, the Moscow region, and a number of other regions."
Move over SMO, the CTO (Counter Terrorist Operation) may be here. The differences in Russian law between an SMO and CTO are very serious.
Special Military Operation (SMO) is a conventional term which describes the scope of current Russian operations in Ukraine. The conduct of the SMO does not affect life within Russia in any significant legal sense. A CTO by contrast, is a legal framework with key implications for Russian citizens, as well as people living in the area of operations.
The CTO regime is introduced and canceled by the head of Russia's FSB. As such it is primarily a national security measure. The purpose of a CTO regime is to prevent or minimise the consequences of any and all threats to national security, such as (but not limited to) terrorist attacks.
A brief summary of CTO legal implications:
• FSB officers become part of the command structure of the military operation and participate in military planning and decision making at the highest levels.
• Conscripted soldiers may be utilised in combat operations (not just mobilized reservists).
• Security services may requisition property of citizens such as personal vehicles, warehouses etc for CTO use.
• Strict powers of control over the exchange of information.
• Communication means may be disconnected by security services without notice.
• Unimpeded access to any CTO employee into any premises in Russia without the need for legal warrant.
• Restrictions on freedom of movement
• Employees of FSB, Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Emergency Situations and others, become part of the CTO.
• Expanded powers to security forces in who may be designated a hostile combatant. This opens the door to targeted destruction of non-military individuals.
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The question of the explosion of the fuel depot in the Voronezh region has been resolved: The explosion was caused by the Strela-10 rocket of Wagner PMC that missed the Ka-52 (was diverted by its heat traps) of the Russian Air Force, according to @Fighter_Bomber
https://t.me/fighter_bomber/12893
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Video of the consequences of the passage of the PMC convoy toward Moscow.
The footage appeared on social media. vote for the frame says that along the way, Wagner fighters break barriers from trucks that were installed by the authorities.
Many telegram channels claim that the video was made in the Lipetsk region. However, the footage shows a sign for the Ikorets River. It is located in the Voronezh region. And this bridge is located on the highway towards Moscow, a few tens of kilometers before reaching Voronezh
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Prigozhin’s high treason
Dear friend and subscribers, what a night we’ve had! Nazi collaborators (in the widest sense of the word) had their fun spreading misinformation, administrators had their fun banning them and the “less-engaged-but-trying-to-help” people like me were watching it all in absolute astonishment. I think the dust has now settled enough to draw at least some conclusions, if even not all of them.
Prigozhin, until about 20 hours ago everyone’s favourite cook and mercenary, finally showed his true face and betrayed our country. I do not want to pretend to “know this all along” or anything equally as pretentious, but the signs were there for us all to see. Ever since Artemovsk and his video about dead Wagner fighters for the lack of artillery ammunition became very popular and plenty of people then spent hours upon hours dissecting it. Some called it an act, some started questioning Sergei Shoigu, but mostly because Wagner make for cool background for music tracks, rather than any actual evidence against the Ministry of Defence. Some, however, called it out for what it was: insubordination. There is no conceivable way an officer (or someone who pretends to be one) can act this way, especially during wartime. This culminated in Prigozhin’s threat of retreat from Artemovsk, despite his orders to the contrary. This was the moment when most people finally turned against him in the Ministry of Defence, in political circles, among other troops and among the public. Then, too, people called it for what it is: insubordination. That time, however, it was an officer directly threatening his superiors (during a war and active engagements) to pull those troops under his command away from fighting. In any other war, in any other country and under any other leader he would have been court-martialled and, at best, put to prison. But Putin is a patient man and, perhaps, it wasn’t the best time to create unnecessary drama. Problem is, as we see now, it was not unnecessary. While this could have been done then with far fewer losses to prestige and reputation to Russia and to Russia’s manpower. Since then, however, Prigozhin was not quite. He spent a large part of the month demoralising our troops by spreading what we here in chat would call “doomer” messages about deaths, missing shells and an imminent advance of the ukrowermacht. Statement after statement, day after day, Prigozhin continued his campaign to discredit the Ministry of Defence, but was left alone, for whatever reason. And now here we are. Prigozhin, in his delusions of grandeur, decided to take up arms against his superiors, the Russian army, the Russian people and, eventually, against our dear President Vladimir Putin. In doing so, Prigozhin redefined the saying “overplaying your cards”. He no doubt expected a popular uprising, but the very opposite has happened. Everyone, without exception, turned against him and stand behind Vladimir Putin. In fact, the only support he is getting is from Ukraine. This is not a good look for a wannabe insurrectionist. Even people who were before neutral turned against him. PMC Wagner are currently in an absolute information vacuum, with no support and no prospects of ammunition or other resources. Well, as the saying goes «попытка не пытка», meaning trying doesn’t hurt. Except it should.
To Yevgheny Prigozhin:
Lay down your arms, stop embarrassing the country you claim to fight for and surrender to the authorities. You are currently only helping our enemy during Russia’s war for its future and for the future of the multipolar world. You are dirt, a traitor and you deserve to die a traitor’s death. Luckily for you, Putin will spare your life.
To Wagner fighters:
Men, you’ve done so much for Russia up until now and your sacrifice is appreciated and respected. Do not ruin all this now, there is still time. You cannot win. You don’t have any support in the country and no outside support has any chance of reaching you. You lost. Surrender now and spare not only your lives, but also your legacy.
Next: Part 2 (https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52083)
PART 2
PART 1 (https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52081)
To our dear President Vladimir Putin:
Уважаемый Владимир Владимирович, мы с Вами, мы все. В такое тяжёлое время ни в каком случае нельзя показать слабость противнику и я уверен Вы сами это понимаете лучше меня. Когда Пригожин достанется Вам в руки, не щадите его, он заслуживает смерти за его предательство. Вы сами сказали, что предательство не прощается.
This is not a joke, this is high treason and Prigozhin should face a firing squad. I rarely make such statements, but I will make it now. No mercy can be shown here. To stab your country in the back during such a time and to stab a man in the back who made you what you are. Whatever you were yesterday you are no more, all that is left is an opportunist traitor to his country, his people and his President.
May God have mercy on your soul, Zhenya, because we will not.
Павел Владимирович
🇷🇺Statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry on the situation with an attempted armed rebellion:
The adventurous aspirations of the conspirators are aimed at destabilizing Russia, the rebellion plays into the hands of the external enemies of the Russian Federation;
The Russian Federation will continue its sovereign course to ensure its security, protect its values, strengthen its authority in the international arena;
The attempted armed rebellion causes sharp rejection in Russian society, which strongly supports Putin;
All goals and objectives of the special military operation will be fulfilled;
The Russian Foreign Ministry warns the West against any hints about the possible use of the internal Russian situation to achieve Russophobic goals;
The Russian Federation fully feels the understanding of the allies of Moscow's position to ensure its security.
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The main thing from the statements of the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev:
📍 The rebellion is a thoughtful and planned operation, the purpose of which is to seize power in the country;
📍If the nuclear arsenal of the Russian Federation is "under the control of bandits", the whole world will be on the verge of destruction;
📍Medvedev did not rule out that foreign specialists and persons who served in the elite units of the RF Armed Forces participated in the preparation of the rebellion;
📍Russia will not allow the rebellion to reach the state transfer and the global crisis;
📍The leadership of the Russian Federation will not allow crazy criminals and their fans to seize power in the country;
📍Speculations about the Defense Ministry's failure to fulfill its obligations and "strikes" on the rear units of the PMC "Wagner" do not stand up to criticism.
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The situation around the armed rebellion in Russia. Highlights at 19.00 Moscow time:
▪️Putin discussed the situation with the presidents of Belarus, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkey. Erdogan said that Ankara is ready to contribute to the settlement of the situation in Russia.
▪️Medvedev called what is happening an attempt at a coup d'état, did not rule out the possible participation of foreigners in the rebellion, and called speculation about past grievances nonsense.
▪️Sobyanin called the situation difficult and announced that Monday in Moscow would be a day off (except for the defense industry, city services, and some other enterprises).
The Russian Foreign Ministry warned the West against any hints about the possible use of the internal Russian situation for their Russophobic purposes.
▪️ In Rostov itself, during the day there were reports of shots fired into the air and the use of an explosive package, but in general, the situation in the city is calm, it began to rain in the evening.
▪️Bus flights are canceled in the regions of central Russia, and the sale of bus tickets has been stopped in Rostov. In Moscow, security measures are being strengthened at the entrances to the city, and checkpoints are being set up.
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❗️🇬🇺💀 "March of Justice" PMC "Wagner" to Moscow
what is known as 19.00
The leadership of the counter-terrorist operation to suppress the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin and the PMC "Wagner" decided to equip the border along the southern bank of the Oka River to prevent the "Wagnerites" from advancing towards Moscow.
▪️There is no exact data on where exactly the PMC is located. According to rumors, in Serpukhov, locals heard a shooting battle, and in Kashira they saw PMCs.
▪️Mobile reserve units from other regions of Russia were transferred to Moscow by military transport aviation. Soldiers are sent by train from St. Petersburg. In some military units in Moscow and the region, a collection of vacationers has been announced by the end of June 24.
▪️The Chechen units of "Akhmat" have not yet reached the center of Rostov-on-Don: PMC units are still holding the defense on the spot.
▪️Ukrainian information warfare agencies are actively throwing in fakes, trying to discredit the RF Armed Forces and bring even more confusion. This does not negate the fact that on the ground PMC "Wagner" enjoys situational support because the fighters of the RF Armed Forces also had the same questions to the leadership of the RF Ministry of Defense. This, among other things, is due to the rapid advance of PMCs to the capital.
🔻In general, the situation is close to completion: we do not believe in prolonged urban fighting in the capital in case of further escalation of the situation.
According to unverified information, in a couple of hours in Moscow and the region, they should begin to jam mobile communications and the Internet.
If this happens, the night events in Moscow will remain, in many respects, a secret, and we will learn about the results of the rebellious "justice march" after the completion of this grandiose action. There are enough questions about the ongoing events: much is done so deliberately that you seriously feel like the hero of some tricky chess game.
#Rybar (https://t.me/rybar/48967)
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Grain of salt?
Our initial predictions appear to be correct. This was a protest by Wagner, and it appears to be over.
We may have a 4th update today. It will depend on events. It was already a late night!
Well, that deescalated quickly:)
Lets get back to destroying Western heavy hardware!