Battlefield Update (Telegram) 2023-03-06
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Battle for Bakhmut
situation as of 15.00 March 6, 2023
🔻The Ukrainian command is carrying out a partial evacuation of the garrison from the city. The only roads to Konstantinovka and Chasov Yar are under the fire control of Russian units, so the withdrawal is carried out along country roads under constant shelling.
▪️At the moment, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are conducting counterattacks at the Bogdanovka-Krasnoye line and the Konstantinovka-Bakhmut highway in order to maintain a physical corridor from the city in case of a full withdrawal.
▪️Artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is firing at the areas of advance with all its might. In the air from Druzhkovka, there are at least six Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters, as well as Ukrainian attack aircraft and fighter jets from Dnepropetrovsk.
The situation is getting worse day by day. The command of the group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will use the combined arms reserve to provide assistance to units in Bakhmut. According to the Military Informant, the transfer of formations from the newly created brigades to the combat zone began.
🔻In Bakhmut itself, they completely cleared the area of the meat processing plant and went to the Bakhmutsky autodrome. Along with this, an offensive is noted from Shchedraya Street from the south in Zabakhmutovka.
▪️On the southern outskirts of the city, the “Wagnerites” increased the control zone on Shchedraya and Karla Marksa streets, moving from the waste sorting plant. In addition, the assault detachments of PMC "Wagner" moved slightly north along Nezalezhnosti Street.
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🇺🇦 About the first possible use of the Ukrainian OTRK "Grom-2" in the Crimea - analysis of Rybar and the Military Chronicle
On March 4, around 16:00, Ukrainian formations tried to strike at the Crimean airfield of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Gvardeisky . Air defense units repelled the raid: there were no casualties, debris fell outside military facilities.
According to various sources, the Armed Forces of Ukraine used a Tu-141 Strizh jet drone equipped with a “homemade” explosive device with striking elements. It is believed that the Soviet-type UAV was shot down on approach to the airfield. But we have reason to believe that it was not the Swift.
🔻 Why?
Judging by the footage, a funnel up to five meters deep formed at the crash site: a UAV with a small warhead could hardly have caused such a strong detonation.
Swifts are mainly intended for pinpoint strikes against aviation bases or ammunition depots, as was the case during the attacks on Engels . For such purposes, a high power charge is not required. Yes, a funnel could appear when falling into soil with loose soil, but in this particular case the situation may be different.
🔻 What is "Thunder"?
The Armed Forces of Ukraine could use the operational-tactical missile system "Grom-2" of their own production to shell the Crimea. On the eve of the strike, the Ukrainian media dispersed the news about the successful development of the OTRK, exceeding the capabilities of the American HIMARS MLRS.
According to our information, the crew of the Grom-2 OTRK could launch a ballistic missile from the area of the village of Tuzla in the Odessa region. The distance to Gvardeisky was about 320 km, and the warhead from a ballistic missile weighing 480 kg could easily leave a funnel of such depth. At the same time, the maximum launch range of this complex can be 500 kilometers.
🔻 Is this possible?
At the enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, they actively developed products of their own production even before the start of the SMO. However, industrialists constantly had problems both when working on the Alder MLRS and the Grom OTRK - most of the tests were not successful .
Against the backdrop of the ongoing SMO, the West intensified its own Ukrainian developments: specialists joined the case, began to import spare parts, components and circuits. A similar "modernization" affected the Kharkov factories "Khartron" and "Kommunar" , where missile weapons were being developed.
The same Alder is delivered to combat units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: an improved multiple launch rocket system based on the Soviet Smerch MLRS. Two launchers are on the balance sheet of the 15th Regiment in Blagodatnoye , and two more are in service with the 107th Reabr in Seversk in the DPR. The same thing is happening with Grom: at the moment, the OTRK is being tested.
🔻 What is "Thunder"?
The longer the operation in Ukraine drags on, the more new weapons appear in the ranks of the Ukrainian army. This is a completely logical turn in the development of the conflict, therefore, so far, trial strikes by the OTRK are not surprising.
The presence of Ukrainian -made short or medium-range systems and strikes against Russian territories will make it much easier to justify further deliveries of American long-range ATACMS missiles to HIMARS and cruise missiles.
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❗️ About the strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the Avdeevsky fortified area
The day before yesterday, footage of air strikes on strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Avdeevka was published. Judging by the video, the blow was delivered to Avdiyivska school No. 2, on the territory of which the firing positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were equipped.
The results of the strikes are unknown, but the scale of the explosions indicates the exact defeat of targets near the school. At the same time, the destruction of one of the strongholds will only partially harm the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but will not change the situation in the suburbs of Donetsk.
🔻Avdeevka fortified area is one of the most protected and prepared for long-term defense positions in the occupied Donetsk National Republic, and its liberation by direct attack or assault is fraught with huge losses in personnel and equipment.
The most effective means is the methodical destruction of strongholds with powerful aerial bombs and the coverage of Avdiivka from two sides to cut the supply lines and supply of ammunition.
As long as the Donetsk suburb has communication routes, it is not possible to squeeze out and, moreover, liberate Avdiivka. Now the Russian troops are advancing in the areas of Krasnogorovka and Experienced with the North, and success in these areas will improve the situation before the assault on the fortified area.
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❗️AFU will continue the defense of Artemivsk (Bakhmut): what does it mean
According to the Ukrainian presidential office, Valery Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the AFU, and Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces, have decided to continue the defense of Artemovsk (Bakhmut).
This means that additional AFU and territorial defense units may be sent to the area of Artemivsk and Chasov Yar. The density of Ukrainian Army units in the area of Chasov Yar and adjacent towns may significantly increase. The main task of the AFU after the partial loss of Artemovsk could be to hold the offensive at least within the administrative boundaries of the city and conduct deblocking operations in the event of a complete or partial encirclement of the Bakhmut grouping.
However, there is no talk of bringing in fresh forces. According to RT, the AFU has practically no reserves not engaged in combat operations at the moment. Most of the units will be withdrawn from other directions - Avdeevka, Kreminna, Svatove, Zaporizhzhya, Kharkiv - and transferred to Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Konstantinovka, and Seversk. Presumably, some of the fresh units will replace the battle-worn units or occupy defensive positions, while a grouping will be built up near Chasov Yar.
For the units of the Wagner PMC and the Russian Armed Forces, the task near Bakhmut does not change: to grind the units of the AFU, the destruction of personnel and equipment, cleaning of urban areas and suburbs, and the liberation of territories.
Presumably, the eastern outskirts of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) have already been partially abandoned by AFU units. The positions in the vicinity of the meat processing plant, Zabakhmutka, and the southern pond are manned by territorial defense units and nationalist battalions, which are currently being eliminated by advanced groups of the Wagner PMCs.
The main part of the Ukrainian army units that remained inside the perimeter and did not have time to withdraw before the start of the operational encirclement of the city will probably receive orders to entrench on the right bank of the Bakhmutka River and wait for reinforcements.
Inside the city, the remaining AFU and territorial defense units are in Komarovka and Sobachevka, in the areas of the central market, School No. 5, the southern pond, the lower and upper parks on the right bank of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), as the urban development on the left bank continues to be taken over by the "orchestra."
The maneuvering and supplying of Ukrainian troops are hampered by the muddy weather and the fact that the Russian Armed Forces have superior reconnaissance and firing capabilities in this area.
In turn, the compaction of the Ukrainian forces' combat orders requires a corresponding reinforcement of the group's supplies.
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