Daily Report from the Ukraine Field for 2023-02-10
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The timing seems to indicate a large offensive. The 19th-20th is highly likely.
We want to say thanks to our friends from Black Mountian Analysis.
Also, we strongly recommend that you read this article. It is long read but of extreme importance.
SLG will publish few big texts in next several days which should provide new perspectives and, perhaps shed some light on the conflict.
Black Mountain Analysis (https://bmanalysis.substack.com/)
War update
Polish buildup,
Polish troop build-up
Basics
Currently there are hot discussions about why Poland is overtly and covertly mobilising troops. There are talks about the mobilisation of some additional 300.000 troops. I won’t discuss this number, since no one has the real numbers, but I’m sure, there is a mobilisation ongoing. And a re-location of huge parts of the Polish army to Western Ukrainian and Belarus borders.
But why?
In the next chapter I will discuss several scenarios, that I consider as likely. Moreover, I’ll assign probabilities in percentage, of how probable I consider the given scenario. Keep in mind that these are my assumptions. Not confirmed facts.
Scenarios
A: Double pinning operation (45%):
The Belarussian army has a certain purpose in this war. Not what many think, that it would invade Ukraine. It certainly won’t. And there is no reason for it. The Belarussian army is there, to pin down Ukrainian troops in the north, so that they can’t be used in the east. Moreover, it is there, to react, in case there would be a Polish/Baltic incursion into Western Ukraine.
By building up a huge and significant army right at the Belarussian and Ukrainian border, the Poles are doing essentially the same. They are forcing the Russians and Belarusians, to take them into their calculations and contingency plans.
Belarus and Russia now need even more troops, equipment and logistics to guard the Western part of Belarus. Those are troops, that can’t be used in the fight against Ukraine. Or additional troops need to be raised for this anti pinning effort. This is costly und uncomfortable, because of the distance and logistics situation. That is very simple and straightforward. I would do the same.
B: Incursion into the Western parts of Ukraine (10%):
I won’t explain this scenario too much since it is discussed ever since everywhere. The Poles would annex some parts of Western Ukraine in this scenario. They would do it under the pretext of a humanitarian intervention or peacekeepers of things like that.
I think there were real considerations, to do that. But I also think, that Mr. Patrushev and Mr. Sullivan had their discussion about what are real red lines for which parties, in Istanbul. And I think, this option is totally off the table. Western Ukraine is the geopolitical key for Russia, to implement its main strategic goal. The new draft treaty for European security. Maybe I will explain this point another time, but not here. This is strategic stuff, that I won’t discuss in an operational update.
And even if there weren’t an exchange of red lines between Sullivan and Patrushev, the Poles understood very well, what they could expect after such a move. The had a good development of their industry and logistics within the last years. They achieved a lot. If they would move into Western Ukraine, they wouldn’t have any protection by NATO, whatsoever. The army would leave a country, that is slightly prosperous, and if this army wouldn’t be destroyed totally, which it probably would, it would come back into a country without industry and infrastructure. It would come back into the stone age. (Time travel for dummies)
Keep in mind. Poland is not Ukraine. Russia considers Ukraine as Russia, that’s why Russia is trying to avoid much damage and casualties in the civil population. Poland is indeed an enemy state. They chose it themselves. All Russia weapons, that you can imagine, that deal out the biggest damage, apart from nuclear weapons, would be used instantly against all valuable targets, without taking into consideration collateral damage, in Poland. Infrastructure, industry and military. Essentially Poland would be back in the stone age.
To Impeach is Patriotic.
Why doesn't US CONgress impeach Biden for pipelineGate?
They all make too much money from war.