Daily Report from the Ukraine Field for 2022-11-15
News, Telegram, and Twitter Articles
Will WW3 be sparked by a farm trailer?
A Polish farm trailer was blasted by a missile. The two top theories are: Russia spent a lot of money to blow up a Polish hay hauler, or a Ukrainian air defense missile missed its target and landed next door. The truth may not matter.
Several defense researchers also claimed parts of the debris (top right) bore a resemblance to components of the S-300 air defense system employed in Ukraine, though no conclusive proof has yet been found.
Daily Mail’s usual definitive headline with buried disclaimer.
⚡️ (https://t.me/sitrepmaps/257)🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Situation in the #Zaporozhye Direction until 12:00 on 15 Nov 2022⚡️
In the direction of #Zaporozhye, reconnaissance activity has increased along the front line as well as in the rear of Russian troops with the help of drones and informants from pro-Ukrainian circles.
Locals are spreading information about preparations for an AFU attack on #Melitopol from #Orekhovo and #Vasilievka from #Kamenskoye.
▪️ Units of the 65th AFU Mechanized Brigade are stationed in residential buildings in #Novoalexandrovka, #Staroukrainka, #Zaliznichnoye and Verkhnyaya Tersa.
Colonel Kravets, commander of the 65th Brigade, inspects the unit's advanced positions and fortifications on the #Belogorye - #Zaliznichnoye line and their readiness prior to a possible offensive.
▪️ In #Orekhovo, at the base of the 65th Mechanized AFU Brigade and in #Shcherbaki, where the 197th Territorial Defence Battalion is deployed, the positions of the AFU's electronic reconnaissance manoeuvre groups have been deployed.
▪️ In the coming days, six battalions of Territorial Defence and several artillery divisions of the 17th Tank Brigade of the AFU from the #Kherson direction are expected to arrive in the #Orekhovo sector.
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⚡️ (https://t.me/sitrepmaps/258)🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Offensive in the #Donetsk Direction: Situation until 13:00 on 15 Nov 2022⚡️
🩸 Near #Donetsk, the AFU Operation Task Group Donetsk is trying to hold the #Avdeevka stronghold by moving reinforcements into the battle areas and equipping additional fortifications.
▪️ Fighters of the Separate Sparta Batallion and the 1st Slavyansk Brigade, supported by the 238th Artillery Brigade, continue clearing the northern outskirts of #Opytnoye, while Ukrainian missile and self-propelled artillery shell the area.
▪️ Fighting also continues in the area of #Vodyanyoye and #Nevelskoye. A SRG of the AFU's 56th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade tried to break through the advancing formations of Russian troops in #Pervomayskoye. After wounding ten militants, the group retreated.
▪️ In order to rotate personnel and evacuate the wounded, 80 mobilised men were transferred towards the #Netailovo - #Pervomayskoye. Detachments from the AFU´'s 36th Separate Marines Brigade arrived in the #Vodyanoye area.
In order to reinforce the AFU garrison at the line of #Nevelskoye - #Pervomayskoye - #Vodyanoye, also the 137th Battalion of the 35th Marine Brigade has begun to be moved from the #Kherson direction.
In order to reinforce the AFU garrison on the #Nevelskoye - #Pervomayskoye - #Vodyanoye line, the transfer of the 137th Battalion of the 35th Marine Brigade also has been started from the direction of #Kherson.
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⚡️ (https://t.me/sitrepmaps/259)🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Situation in the #Starobelsk Direction until 14:00 on 15 Nov 2022⚡️
#Kupyansk Sector:
▪️ Artillery units of the 14th AFU Brigade are massively shelling the borderline #Olshana - #Pervomayskoye - #Orlyanka - #Yagodnoye. Targeting is done by reconnaissance drones and SRGs at #Ivanovka.
▪️ To cover the ground grouping in #Kupyansk in the area west of #Yagodnoye, a short-range air defence system calculation as well as several mobile air defence units with man-portable air defence systems are operating.
#Svatovo Sector:
▪️ Assault commandos of the 2nd Battalion of the AFU's 92nd Mechanized Brigade launched an offensive towards #Stelmakhovka.
In the course of intense fighting, the Ukrainian formations consolidated on the western outskirts and advanced further towards #Kuzemovka. UAV calculations detected the AFU movement and Russian artillery and TOS strikes pushed the 92nd Mechanized Brigade back to its initial positions.
#Lyman Sector:
▪️ Reinforcements arrived at the #Novolyubovka - #Ivanovka line to reinforce the 25th Airborne Brigade of the AFU.
▪️ After an artillery barrage, a company of the 25th Airborne Brigade, reinforced with armoured vehicles, tried to break through towards #Chervonopopovka. Russian soldiers repulsed the attack.
▪️ Russian artillery struck the positions of the 25th Brigade in this area, killing two men and wounding 15 Ukrainian paratroopers.
#Lysychansk Sector:
▪️ Fighting is taking place in the #Belogorovka area. The AFU command has rotated personnel and wounded personnel of the 122nd Battalion of the 81st Separate Airmobile Brigade. Several small UAVs are operating at the #Serebryanka - #Belogorovka line.
▪️ A separate group of 81th Separate Airmobile Brigade conducted a reconnaissance battle on the Russian position near #Zolotarevka. Artillery fire stopped the advance and the Ukrainian SRG withdrew.
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⚡️ (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/5009)Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine⚡️
(15 November 2022)
◽️The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
◽️A successful offensive by Russian troops has resulted in the complete liberation of Pavlovka (Donetsk People's Republic). Within the fighting for Pavlovka, Russian troops have destroyed up to 1,400 Ukrainian servicemen, 2 AFU Su-25 aircraft , 1 Mi-8 helicopter, 12 tanks, 27 infantry fighting vehicles and up to 30 other armoured fighting vehicles. 6 artillery pieces, including 2 US-made M777 artillery systems, over 25 vehicles of various types and 28 unmanned aerial vehicles have been eliminated.
◽️Russian troops continue their offensive.
◽️In Kupyansk direction, active actions by Russian troops have thwarted an attack by 2 AFU company tactical groups near Kuzyomovka (Lugansk People's Republic's). The enemy units have been halted by artillery and heavy flamethrower systems' fire and driven back to their initial positions. Up to a 100 Ukrainian soldiers, 8 tanks, 3 infantry fighting vehicles, 5 infantry fighting vehicle and 6 motor vehicles have been eliminated.
◽️In Krasniy Liman direction, the AFU made unsuccessful attempt to attack with 2 company tactical groups near Chervonopopovka and Zolotaryovka (Lugansk People's Republic). As a result of a fire attack, up to 90 Ukrainian servicemen, 1 tank, 4 armoured fighting vehicle and 5 pick-up trucks have been eliminated.
💥Operational-Tactical and Army Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery have neutralised 6 AFU command posts near Kupyansk (Kharkov region), Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People's Republic) and Chernobayevka (Kherson region), as well as 82 artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and hardware in 178 areas. A munition depot near Krasnogorovka (Donetsk People's Republic) have been destroyed.
💥7 unmanned aerial vehicles have been destroyed by air defence near Salkovo, Radensk, Tavriysk (Kherson region), Novokrasnyanka, Krasnorechenskoye (Lugansk People's Republic) and Novoandreyevka (Donetsk People's Republic).
📊In addition, three shells of the HIMARS multiple rocket launcher have been intercepted near Skadovsk (Kherson region).
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⚡️ (https://t.me/sitrepmaps/260)🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Situation in the #Kherson Direction until 16:00 on 15 Nov 2022⚡️
🩸 Ukrainian units continue to consolidate on the right bank of the #Dnipro River. Both regular formations and AFU Territorial Defence battalions are preparing to move in other directions.
#Kherson Region:
▪️ Activity of a Bayraktar TB2 drone was spotted over the #Kherson area and the #Ochakov coast. The drone cleared the activity of Russian forces on the Kinburn Peninsula and along the left bank of the #Dnipro River.
⚠️ Despite what some sources say about the AFU capturing the peninsula, this information does not correspond to reality.
▪️ The Ukrainian command is now probing the ground for a tactical landing in the area, and artillery pieces have been moved to #Ochakov.
⚠️ The information about the capture of Novaya Kakhovka, #Aleshkov and other settlements on the left bank by the AFU is also an Ukrainian resource information dump.
▪️ Filtration operations continue in #Kherson and the surrounding area. Mercenaries from the UK and Georgia are involved in punitive actions against civilians.
▪️ Ukrainian artillery fired indiscriminately at villages and towns in the #Kherson region on the left bank. And at night, a boat with an AFU reconnaissance team on board operated on the #Dnipro along the #Konka River.
▪️ Both sides exchanged artillery strikes throughout the day yesterday.
▪️ Informers of the AFU continue to operate in #Aleshki and #Nechaevo.
▪️ Russian troops hit the deployment point of the 15th Battalion of the AFU's 128th Mountain Assault Brigade. Twenty-one people were killed, including the commander, Major Vadym Oduda.
#Nikolaev Sector:
▪️ Engineering units of the AFU's 28th Mechanized Brigade are demining the occupied territory. Nevertheless, during the transfer of equipment to #Kherson on the #Aleksandrovka - #Stanislav highway, an armored fighting vehicle was blown up by a mine.
▪️ A group of Canadian advisers is working at the #Kulbakino airfield near #Nikolaev and is responsible for the distribution of weapons supplied to AFU units.
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⚡️ (https://t.me/rybar/41173)🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 Massive Missile Strikes by the Russian Armed Forces in #Ukraine: What is known as of 18:00⚡️
🩸 In the afternoon, the Russian Armed Forces once again launched a series of strikes on targets across #Ukraine. The launches were carried out by long-range aircraft of the Russian Air Force and naval ships. As on previous occasions, the attacks caused electricity and water supply problems in Ukrainian cities.
Despite recent deliveries of Western-made air defence systems, the AFU was once again unable to repel a Russian massive air raid. So far, the following cities are reliably known to have been hit:
▪️ #Kiev: more than five cruise missile sorties. One five-storey building was damaged, which may be a consequence of Ukrainian air defence. Power outages have started in the city.
▪️ #Zhytomyr: two incursions into critical infrastructure, tentatively the Zhytomyrska 330 substation, which has previously been hit (https://t.me/rybar/40388) by missiles by the Russian Armed Forces. Electricity and water have been lost in the city.
▪️ #Kharkov: power cuts after incoming attacks, underground shut down. Local authorities reported hitting critical infrastructure in Chuguevsky district: probably the Zmievskaya TPP.
▪️ #Lvov: a series of explosions, power and mobile phone outages. According to preliminary reports, one of the targets was a 330kV substation.
▪️ #Sumy: explosions in the area and power outages.
▪️ #Odessa: at least one rocket flew in. Power outage in part of the area.
▪️ #Kirovograd: two sorties, power infrastructure damaged.
▪️ #Volyn: hit energy infrastructure in the region, tentatively a 330kV substation in Kovel.
▪️ #Rivne: explosion, city partially de-energised.
▪️ #KrivoyRog: at least two explosions after arrivals.
▪️ #Khmelnitsky: at least two explosions after incoming flights.
▪️ #Kremenchuk: incoming, infrastructure facility hit.
Although power cuts have begun in the country, it is not gone everywhere: this indirectly indicates that autotransformers, rather than general control points (GCPs), are once again targeted. This reduces the effectiveness of the impact on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
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On the question of bridges, dams, and other big Soviet engineering things—to close the topic once and for all.
Below you see a Ukrainian NATO soldier (link (https://t.me/SLGmaps/58)) looking forlornly from the right (west/north) bank of the Dnieper river, where the Antonov bridge used to be, to the left (east/south) bank of the Dnepr river. He cannot cross. The next photograph is of the Antonov bridge floating in the water (link (https://t.me/SLGmaps/60))
What caused this event of bridge destruction—an act that Telegram users of all kinds have been asking for since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict? It was not caused by HIMARS. It was not caused by Kalibr. It was not caused by Geran-2. It was not caused by any other fancy missiles that have been deployed by Russia in this war. It could not have been caused by any of them, other than—perhaps, though I am not certain—through a monumentally wasteful expenditure of precision weaponry.
The Antonov bridge was destroyed through an act of intentional demolition. Charges were set in specific weak points of the bridge—no small feat that requires engineering knowledge and meticulous work—and then detonated, resulting in the collapse of this transportation link. Nothing else would have worked, other than a direct hit with a large-enough tactical nuclear device. Ukrainians tried and tried, ad nauseum, but did not succeed, and, in fact, equipment was moved over the bridge during the Russian withdrawal.
The same can be said for the Novaya Kakhovka dam—an act of intentional demolition would be required, just like the Soviet army needed to set charges and detonate the DneproGes, in Zaporozhye, in 1941 (https://histrf.ru/read/articles/kak-vzryvali-dneproges), to stop the Nazi war machine. Nothing less would suffice. These monumental works—whether Soviet or built elsewhere in the world—are titans that take a significant and targeted effort to destroy. You can't just lob missiles at them. It does not work.
Accordingly, this post is meant to close all further discussion about how easy it would have been to destroy all bridges across the Dnepr river, and elsewhere. If you believe so, you are simply wrong. You have been told this by @Fighter_Bomber. You have been told this by many others, familiar with the matter—civil engineers, military pilots, and so forth. Had Russia conducted massive aerial raids over the core of Ukrainian territory (along the Dnepr river) at the beginning of the war, then maybe a few bridges might have been sufficiently damaged. Not with cruise missiles though.
Same with the railroad tracks—they are easy to repair, there is so many of them, and missiles do not have a sufficiently wide radius of damage to do much to disrupt rail transport this way. If you want to stop the Ukrainian rail traffic (and stop the Ukrainian military movements)—destroy electrical traction substations. That would have paralyzed in excess of 80% of Ukrainian rail transport, forcing a shift to diesel locomotives, with greater pressure on scarce fuel supplies. Even that is not enough and does not solve everything.
Troops are needed. Larger maneuvers are needed. Area denial and logistics disruption is needed. Encircle, suffocate, force surrender. For that, troops are required. That's it. It's rather simple. Russia needs infantry. Not Internet speculation about how easy it is to destroy clearly difficult-to-destroy engineering marvels (https://t.me/SLGmaps/58).
EDIT (from Zornkrieger): Cost benefit analysis is key. 100 Kalibr missiles might take a few spans down on one of the bridges across the Dneiper, but how long until it’s repaired? Hit the enemy where they are weakest.
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