Daily Report from the Ukraine Field for 2022-06-21
News, Telegram, and Twitter Articles (Warning: Graphic)
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With respect to the situation between Kherson and Nikolayev, the Ukrainians claim a tactical success at Kiselyovka, while the Russian military sources unequivocally deny that any ground was given up.
It must be recalled that this is not the first Ukrainian attempt to do something—anything—near Kiselyovka. At least a month ago, after massive artillery shelling, the Ukrainian side claimed to have forced the defending Russian garrison to withdraw from Kiselyovka to Chernobayevka. The Russian troops did, indeed, withdraw that time, but promptly returned once counterbattery action suppressed the Ukrainian fire and such return became safe.
Kiselyovka is relatively unprotected, with no natural barriers apart from a minor river running through it, and has already been shelled—significantly—more than once.
Nonetheless, the best case scenario for the Ukrainian fairytale—in my opinion—is the repetition of the last Ukrainian attack on Kiselyovka. As then, this one will also end up nowhere.
However, as the Russian sources say that no territory was given up, I believe that no territory was given up. As usual with virtual Ukrainian Tik-Tok victories, no proof of any success at Kiselyovka has been provided by the Kiev regime.
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The second area of concern today is Pavlovka, in the Ugledar-Pavlovka-Nikolskoye urban triangle. As Ugledar is the major railway junction in the area, the triangle is largely tied into the city. While Russia controls the base of the triangle, Ukraine has been trying to split off Pavlovka from Russian control this week.
Today’s attack is the second in the last 3 days. The first one was repulsed without serious consequences, but it may have only been reconnaissance-in-force (although I am not certain complex terms like this are always applicable to the Ukrainian battlefield actions).
In any event, fighting was reported in the streets of the city. The intent is clear—in my opinion—Ukraine wants to expand the zone of control around and to improve the precarious position of Ugledar in anticipation of the Russian offensive in the area.
While this one gives me more pause, with the recent reinforcement of units in the Ugledar-Kurakhovo direction—any difficulty is temporary.
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