Daily Report from the Ukraine Field for 2022-12-27
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The US will raise the stakes to the limit
Military expert Boris Rozhin on maneuvers in Belarus, the possibility of an attack by the AFU on Belgorod, and the threat of strikes on Moscow - especially for Voenkor Kotenok Z channel @voenkorKotenok:
The Belarusian factor
- A lot of information about the redeployment of forces to Belorussia. In case of a new attempt by a Russian Armed Forces grouping from the north, will the AFU have enough resources to repel this attack and hold the front in Donbass simultaneously?
- It depends on what grouping could potentially be concentrated in Belarus and what tasks it would have. Since it is almost impossible to hide the accumulation of a large group, the AFU will probably reinforce the northern border (it is already doing so), fearing a potential strike.
However, the Russian Armed Forces may not plan such strikes. Still, they may successfully speculate on this topic to mislead the enemy's command and make maneuvering with reserves more difficult. The maximum fog of war in this matter is very profitable for the Russian General Staff.
The choice between propaganda and strategy
- The "experts" affiliated with Zelensky's Office continue to tell the Ukrainian population about the impending attack by the AFU, which will allegedly begin after the ground freezes. Among other things, the possibility of an offensive in Belgorod oblast is being discussed. Is Kiev ready to risk the accumulated reserves for the sake of the propaganda effect of capturing the border strip?
- The availability of sufficiently substantial forces enables the AFU either to conduct a propaganda offensive on the territory of the Belgorod region or to intensify attacks on Svatovo and Kreminna, for which the enemy continues to attack in the direction of the Svatovo-Kreminna highway without regard to casualties.
The main task of these attacks is to reach the highway (for example, near Krasnopopovka) and disrupt the integrity of the front of the RF Armed Forces in this area to create the preconditions for an assault on Kremenna and Svatovo. Achieving success in this area has more military and propaganda prospects for the enemy. Hence the expenditure of resources.
"Red lines" no longer work
- Ukraine is threatening to hit Moscow and other Russian megacities. What risks does Kiev face if it makes such a decision, and what options does it have to implement it?
- Well, if there is no question of the use of TNW weapons in Ukraine, then, in fact, Kiev does not risk anything, as the Russian Federation already uses almost all the available nomenclature of weapons against Ukraine. And as the US shows, the course for further escalation is inevitable because the US does not consider Russian red lines beyond the parameters of nuclear doctrine significant.
In conventional warfare, the US will raise the stakes to the limit - any costs to Ukraine or Europe are immaterial.
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Set objectives by the Russian leadership
On February 21, 2022, Putin addressed the nation with a set off decisions. I highly recommend to re-listen it or read the transcript here (http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828). Since it is not the goal to analyse his speech I will break it, and the decisions that are announced the following several days into three main objectives:
Denazification:
The Soviet Union sacrificed over 26 million people in the second world war, to defeat Nazism. Every family in Russia has some family members, that died in the second world war. It is a big wound in the Russian soul. And the best attack vector against Russia. Unfortunately, Ukraine has huge Nazi collaborator cells during the world war. Led by Stepan Bandera. Western Services knew about the Russian wound and cultivated, especially in Western Ukraine, even during Soviet times, followers of Bandera. This trend exploded exponentially since the Western services took control of Ukraine during the events in 2014. Basically, an Anti-Russia was created, armed to the teeth, right on Russia’s borders. Not only this, but not far from Moscow away. Especially difficult is, that there is a huge Russian speaking part of the population in Ukraine, which is getting discriminated, if not worse, by the Bandera followers. Russia’s goal is, to roll back this development and to remove the whole Nazi and Bandera ideology from Ukraine. This time thoroughly since it wasn’t done properly after WW2. How? I’m not an expert in such questions, so I honestly don’t know what the approach will be. It remains to be seen.
Demilitarization:
Ukraine, if remains as a national state, which I doubt in the meanwhile, would be allowed, to have only a small self-defence force. Which implies, that its whole military needs to be destroyed, or handed over to Russia, before. Moreover, it means, that no foreign military, that is hostile to Russia, would be allowed to station its military or equipment on Ukrainian soil.
Ukraine could have surrendered. In this case it would have handed over its military equipment to Russia. It could have kept, what Russia would define as necessary, for basic self-defence.
Without surrender/negotiation, demilitarization is being implemented by force. Which means, that all military equipment and troops on Ukrainian soil, that are not Russian or with Russia allied, will be destroyed. This includes both, Ukrainian and NATO equipment and troops.
Since the West is committed, to defeat Russia on the Battlefield, through Ukrainian proxies, we can assume the following: “Russia will demilitarize Ukraine AND the West, as long the West is committed, to send its equipment and as long as there are Ukrainians alive, that can use this equipment. This would lead to the total demilitarization of both, the West and Ukraine, unless the West doesn’t surrender (Ukraine) or Russia is being defeated on the Battlefield.
Bringing to justice all Ukrainians, that committed crimes against the Russian speaking population:
Over eight years, Ukraine committed all kinds of crimes against its Russian speaking population. There were three main crime places.
The Ukrainian held Donbass in general: The Russian speaking population suffered different atrocities, which I won’t explain here.
In Mariupol, which is part of Donbass, in particular: The most fanatic Nazi formation, called Azov Regiment, had its headquarters in Mariupol. There are endless reports of atrocities.
Odessa: A city, founded by the Russian czarina, Catherine the Great. It is considered by most Russians, and as far as I am informed, by the inhabitants as well, as a Russian city. Nazi formations conducted a massacre here, 2014, against Russian speaking inhabitants. Putin mentioned this massacre, and its perpetrators especially in his speech. He said, all perpetrators are known and will be brought to justice.
Putin didn’t aim with these goals on Donbass, but on the whole of Ukraine. Which brings us by logical deduction to the conclusion, that the whole of Ukraine will need to be captured, to be able to fulfill the stated goals. There is no other logical way.
Strategic planning: Basics
First of all, there is no red line, that is followed by a professional military, no matter what.
Hence, there is no “Russia planned X and didn’t achieve it”.
The only thing, that is constant in military planning, is the political goal, given by the political leadership of the country. Those objectives are the three, mentioned above. The way, to achieve those goals, can change, depending on the development of circumstances on the field. Ultimately, the political objectives can change as well, if the military might is too less or too big or the political circumstances change.
If the military might is too weak, then the objectives might be adjusted to more reachable smaller ones. If the political leadership agrees. There are unfortunately examples, where such adjustments did not take place in human history. If the military might is strong enough, and the political leadership agrees, then the goals could be expanded.
For the time being, and as all the time reiterated by Russia’s leadership, all goals will be achieved and there is no change.
The military is planning a strategy how to achieve the political goals. Most crucial in military planning is, that you have options for all deviations from the original plan. As many people know, the best plan is only valid, until the first bullet starts to fly.
Every military campaign is being planned, with many options, if things do not follow the initial planned way. And every campaign can consist of X military operations.
If a country plans thoroughly its military strategy and the derived campaigns and operations, and if it takes into consideration the realistic worst-case scenarios, then it will have as a result all resources and time, that will be needed, to sustain the project. In turn it means, that it is highly likely that Russia had several scenarios of outcomes. Best case, middle case and worst case. To start this war, Russia would need to be prepared for the worst-case scenario. I personally assume, that this is the reason, that Russia waited for eight years, to conduct this Special-Military-Operation (SMO). To prepare its economy and military, to be able to sustain the worst (realistic) military scenario.
Strategic planning: Option A, B and C
I will present three scenarios/options, that I assume, Russia has planned for, for phase 1.
Again, those are assumptions and of course they can be wrong:
Best case scenario(A):
Conducting a massive penetration on a broad frontline to cause a shock and quick collapse of the enemy. In this case Ukraine would have fully surrendered within days or weeks after the invasion. Having analysed the facts, which are available, I assume, that it was one of the realistic Russian goals, which were not achieved, eventually. The result would have been the handing over off Ukraine to the Russian military.
Middle case scenario(B):
Fighting with Ukraine, by gradually increasing the intensity, and thereby the Ukrainian military and infrastructural casualties, until Ukraine is ready to negotiate a favorable post war agreement.
This was almost achieved at the end of phase 1. Unfortunately, the West intervened and held back Ukraine from concluding a negotiated agreement.
In theory such a scenario could still be concluded if Ukraine would be a sole actor. Since Ukrainians do not control their own country, but foreign powers, the timeframe for scenario B obviously is closed.
Worst case scenario(C):
This scenario foresees, that Ukraine will not surrender under any circumstances, as long it is physically able to resist. This means that it would fight until the last soldier is killed and the last piece of equipment destroyed, so that the Russian army can drive through, to the Polish border.
Moreover, it implies, that NATO will assist and supply Ukraine, with most resources, except those, that are “redlined”, to prevent Ukraine, to collapse too fast. As far as I understand, this is the scenario, that is currently being implemented. Of course, all people involved, are hoping, that the collapse takes place, before too much damage was made.
I just presented three, at least in my opinion or assumption, possible scenarios.
Scenario A and B would have been possible, to achieve within Phase 1. Both scenarios became impossible after Phase 1 was concluded. Now, unfortunately, only scenario C is left. I will go deeper into it, in the articles, covering Phase 2 and 3.
Deception and cover up
As mentioned above, Russia needed to plan for three scenarios. Considering scenario B and C, we can conclude, that Russia would need massive amounts of mobilized and trained troops, properly equipped hardware and all the intelligence capacity in place, for target acquisition and many more purposes.
We can recall the beginning of phase 1. Very few details, troops and equipment were in place and all troops, except of some staff and general ranked officers, did not have any plan whether it is serious or only a bluff. In turn it means, the troops were not prepared and informed properly for the invasion. We can also recall that 12 hours before the invasion, Russia did alert and started to mobilise its intelligence services. Of course, there are some top-secret parts of the intelligence community, which helped to plan everything. But most parts were not involved and started being mobilised for war intelligence duty, 12 hours in advance.
One could argue that I just described bad preparation by the Russian side. This is not the case. My opinion is that the Russian General Staff and the departments of the Russian Intelligence Services that were involved in planning, created a multi-level mixed military-political campaign. Taking into consideration the three (or how many ever they are) scenarios mentioned above, what escalation steps will be activated, if Ukraine don’t surrender after this or that event on the battlefield.
The first step was made in total secrecy, to confuse Western intelligence services about the scale and objectives of the first push into Ukraine. If we take into consideration the public communication of the United States, days before the invasion, we can understand the deception, that was in effect. The Americans were sure, that Russia would invade Ukraine doctrinal and conquer it within days. Russia could have done that. The Americans know that. That’s why there were created maximal confusion.
Only after scenario A failed, Russia activated the next, pre-planned steps, that led to phase 2, which I will discuss in the next article.
What I simply want to highlight is, that all escalation steps by the Russians are pre-planned and the resources allocated. The are only released, if needed. Which means, unless Ukraine doesn’t surrender, more and more Russian resources will be released, that are already before the invasion earmarked, for exactly this escalation step.
The last thing to say, is, that as described initially, the Russian troops didn’t have information about the war and their objectives, to keep everyone in total secrecy. At the second the war started, everything was set in motion, to withdraw and trained earmarked troops for purposes, that are assigned to them in later escalation steps. Unfortunately, the Donbass militia took the biggest part of the fighting and casualties, especially in Donbass. The reason is, to keep Ukrainian troops at bay, grind them down and buy time, until the main Russian troops are prepared and trained for their earmarked purpose.
Preconditions
Depending on the source, that you take, Ukraine did have approx. 300,000 – 500,000 troops at the beginning of the conflict. And the number of troops in Donbass were, also depending on the source, between 100,000 – and 200,000 troops. This were the most experienced and elite troops, assembled for an attack at the militia held territories in Donbass.
Since the Americans knew for sure, that there will be an invasion, they prepared with the Ukrainians, especially with most of their special forces’ ambushes and traps on all roads, that will be likely used in the event of an attack. All means of guerrilla warfare were prepared. In this case, high-tech guerrilla warfare, with drones and satellite reconnaissance and communication.
All other regions were thinly defended.
My estimation is, that the American services calculated with a push on Kiev and on Donbass and established the defences accordingly. In Donbass with the regular professional army. In northern Ukraine, Kiev included, with mixed components of the regular army, popular defence and most importantly, almost all special forces units of Ukraine, training for the mentioned guerrilla warfare.
Russia prepared strike groups North, South, Special forces (airborne VDV), Donbass militia brigades and Wagner mercenaries. Of course, there were more sub formations, but those were the most important.
Penetration
As announced before, I don’t intend to go into details.
Though I want to highlight some highlights.
Russia’s airborne special forces, called VDV, were responsible for pinning down the Ukrainian elite Special Forces troops in and around Kiev. Moreover, to apply maximum pressure on Kiev and the Ukrainian government, to assist either the negotiations or to bring a collapse of the government and achieve a quick Ukrainian total surrender. These troops did the most heroic fighting under the worst possible conditions. They also suffered huge casualties. There were special decorations of the involved formations by President Putin.
The southern strike group were quite successful. As far as I can judge it, they achieved most, but not all set goals for the first phase. They captured the whole of Kherson, a huge part of Zaporozhe and fought in the battle for Mariupol. Moreover, they expanded buffer zones around Kherson, Mariupol and Kakhovka. In anticipation of future defensive battles, to have space for maneuvering, regrouping and tactical retreats.
The northern group was tasked with pinning down troops across northern Ukraine from Donbass up to Kiev. As far as one can judge the reports (I could be wrong here), these group was not that successful and suffered heavy losses. It could be explained either by bad leadership, or because, as mentioned above, my assumption is, that Americans expected this vector as main attacking vector and prepared accordingly all guerrilla warfare elements in this direction.
There were several purposes, apart from the already mentioned scenarios A, B and C:
Ukraine prepared a large-scale attack at the Donbass, which was ready to kick-off any time. By attacking on a large front, Russia cut off most of logistics and reinforcements for the frontline troops in Donbass. A large-scale attack on Donbass was no longer possible. Instead, the Donbass militia utilized the situation and went on the offensive on their own.
Creating a permanent land bridge to Crimea. The bridge is good, but in wartime useless. Ukraine maybe isn’t capable, apart from terrorist attacks, to attack the bridge. NATO is. Would be one of the first targets, that couldn’t be defended.
Securing the permanent water supply to Crimea, out of the Kakhovka reservoir.
Ambushes
As initially stated, NATO did prepare Ukraine very well for the likely Russian attack vectors. Therefore, several tens of thousands special forces units were trained by NATO in Ukraine and on foreign soil, over eight years, to conduct this kind of guerrilla and stay-behind warfare.
By taking this into account, one can understand one of the reasons, why Russia have chosen the approach of invading with totally uniformed soldiers. To avoid, that offensive plans trickle through to NATO and that thereby even more successful ambushed could have been planned.
Having invaded in winter, Russia had even more problems with ambushes. Snow gives good opportunities for preparing ambushes. Especially because columns are forced to drive in an array on roads. Next, I will explain, why this is a problem:
Ukraine pre-registered most road sections by artillery, where likely Russian columns will need to pass. And they did. And many columns have been destroyed. It was a very successful approach. Nevertheless, by far not enough, to hurt the Russians substantially.
The Ukrainian military applied the strategy to hide in all civilian buildings on the roads, where the Russian columns needed to pass. So, either the Russian shot at civilian houses or they tried to rush through and sustain heavy damage, due to NLAW fire out of windows of civilians. The worst of this approach is, that most civilians are Russian speaking. Which forced the Russian army to shoot on people, that they wanted to protect. Rightfully, Amnesty International recognized this approach as a war crime by the Ukrainians.
Of course, it absolutely makes sense, to mine the roads, where Russians would have been forced to pass. And that’s what Ukrainians did. Many tanks and other vehicles, that weren’t equipped properly, to detect or remote denote mines, were blown up.
A part of the propaganda warfare of Ukraine was, to demoralize the Russian public, to trigger it to overthrow President Putin. To achieve that, many ambush kills were filmed by drones and broadcasted immediately. The idea was, to make Russian public demand an end of the war and by refusing it, Putin would lose confidence by the population and would be eventually overthrown. The broadcasting was very successful. But not the approach, that Russians would lose moral, and demand an end of the war. That failed badly.
To achieve the exact same goal, to trigger the Russian public to overthrow Putin, Ukraine instigated many footages, where they tortured captured Russian soldiers horribly. I won’t describe it here in detail. This attempt failed as well. There were no calls for overthrowing Putin. Instead, the Russian public and soldiers got angry and demanded a far more resolute approach against Ukraine. Soldiers didn’t surrender that quickly. Instead, many fought to death, because they knew, what awaits them.
Negotiations
I described the main strike directions of the first phase. As mentioned in the possible scenarios, those strikes were intended to achieve scenario A or B. Unfortunately, A was never an option. Ukrainians were remote controlled, down to the unit level. There was never the possibility, that orders could be issued from a central command to the various units, to surrender. This still applies today.
Nevertheless, there were some pre-negotiations during phase 1 in Minsk. They led to a meeting on March 29, 2022, in Istanbul. These negotiations had officially the potential to end the conflict. Ukrainian neutrality should be declared and the recognition of Donbass and Crimea as Russian. The parties were close to a conclusion. The following days the proposals should have been discussed in the capitols and then an agreement on top level should be reached. As a sign of good will, Russia withdrew all troops from northern Ukraine, including Kiev.
Unfortunately, the West had other plans for Ukraine. Boris Johnson flew immediately to Kiev and after a meeting between him and Zelensky, Ukraine completely withdrew from negotiations.
This event triggered the activation and announcement of phase 2 by the Russian leadership at the end of March 2022.
Further thoughts
Russia decided, to apply a special military operation in Ukraine. Not a doctrinal war. The big question is, why? Many people, including Western intelligence services, thought there would be a doctrinal push. It would have many advantages, but some disadvantages as well. This is a topic for another article. But I will go a little bit into it here. By applying a special military operation, Russia had the following opportunities:
Proceeding slowly, (If we exclude phase 1) so the West has all time it needs to deplete itself militarily and economically. So, Russia would be able to force the West down on its knees and to implement the new draft security framework for Europe, without getting into an actual military conflict with NATO.
Drawing out all Ukrainian troops and (NATO) equipment out of the big cities and Western regions. To destroy it in a place with short supply lines, a friendly population and total air domination. This is the Donbass and Kherson. Thereby a collapse of Ukraine can be triggered, slowly, but surly, without the need to fight devastating battles in Ukraine’s large cities. Thereby avoiding further Mariupol scenarios.
I want to highlight, that I’m by 100% convinced, that the Russian leadership calculated and still is calculating with confidence, with a full Ukrainian surrender. And the handing over of Ukraine as a whole by its military to Russia’s military. This is what eventually will happen. Unfortunately, we can assume that many people still will have to die before this happens. I wrote that I think that this was planned from the beginning. This is to be explained with, what I wrote in the “Strategic planning” section of this article. Russia is following a predefined, but flexible escalation process:
It was clear from the beginning that Ukraine as a whole, needs to be captured, to reach all geopolitical and security goals, set by the political leadership of Russia. Nevertheless, Russia needs always to show the whole world, and first and foremost its BRICS allies, that it is always ready to negotiate. Even though all parties are fully clear, that this is an existential war between the West and Russia. The party that loses, vanishes into geopolitical insignificance. There will be either a strong Russia with BRICS afterwards and NO West (geopolitically) or the West and the BRICS project would be over. Therefore, all involved parties will always find, a reason why not to negotiate or why negotiations failed. As many say, “until the last Ukrainian”. I personally think that Russia proceeds carefully and will execute a quick final blow, when the time comes, that fits Russia, to preserve as many Ukrainians and their infrastructure as possible. Why? Because it will inherit it and will need to either incorporate it and rebuild it or find another solution.
Why was I sure, from the beginning, that the whole of Ukraine is on the plate? Because the leaders of Hungary and Serbia started to be very bold in their communication with the West. They did and said things, that would be a no-go before. Things, for which they would be sanctioned into oblivion. Hungary for example blocked many EU sanctions against Russia. This is huge. This tells me, that Hungary and Serbia had information in advance, what the Russian plans are and how the future landscape between Russia, Hungary and Serbia will look alike. Without Ukraine. Since I believe that there will be a land-bridge between Russia (with the whole of Ukraine as federal subject) and Hungary, I think, that here will be finally military ground and air support, as well as trade by land and the black sea possible. So, Hungary and Serbia are no longer afraid of a military attack by NATO and by Western sanctions, that will be after the implementation of the multipolar world order obsolete. I have further thoughts about this, which I will explain in detail in another article.
Results of phase 1
Here I want to give a quick overview of the achieved objectives of phase 1:
Denazification was not completed yet.
Demilitarization was not completed yet.
Bringing war criminals to justice was not completed yet.
Huge territorial gains were made, and deep buffer zones around big cities were created for maneuvering in defence. Both sides suffered huge casualties, which are normal under such circumstances.
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Discussion about the battle for Artemovsk(Bakhmut)
1. For political and operational reasons, the Ukrainian armed forces will continue to try to hold Artemovsk for as long as possible. It appears that political reasons now prevail over purely military ones.
2. The transfer of reserves to Artemovsk, Opytne, and Chasov Yar is taking place to the detriment of ambitious offensive plans, which also indicates the current prioritization by the Ukrainian command. Heavy casualties among the Ukrainian militants and Zelensky's political ambitions, force the Ukrainian command to send more reserves to this place.
3.Based on the experience of fighting for Popasna and previous actions, such as undermining bridges and preparing positions in the city centre, the AFU will conduct defensive action, with the option of retreating to positions prepared in the central and western parts of Artemovsk. Further, in the event of losing the city and being forced to retreat towards Kostyantynivka, they will defend themselves in the Chasov Yar area.
4. In the city itself, fighting will gradually shift to residential areas, with a repeat of the already familiar patterns - Mariupol, Popasna, Severodonetsk. The city itself will obviously be very heavily destroyed.
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Has Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Doomed the Dollar?
It’s plausible that the yuan will become an alternative to the U.S. dollar in a “multipolar” world in a matter of years, not decades or centuries. This will deal a severe blow to American economy and global position that Washington may not be able to recover from.
This crisis has reshaped the international order and global realignments by offering states the opportunity to pursue their own self-interest without aligning themselves with a political camp. Broadly speaking, the crisis has divided the world into three camps: One led by the United States and NATO, one led by Russia and China, and wedged between these two camps is one in which most countries adopted neutrality
These neutral countries are cognizant of the reality that at a time of global competition over scarce resources they can neither sanction nor go against Russia, the largest country in the world with the largest amount of resources, and China, the country with the second-largest economy and largest holder of foreign reserves in the world.
They have been uneasy about America’s unipolar power since its unilateral invasion of Iraq in 2003. The Ukraine crisis and its ensuing ramifications for dividing the world, coupled with the virtual
unilateral invasion of Iraq in 2003. The Ukraine crisis and its ensuing ramifications for dividing the world, coupled with the virtual universal perception that American power is in decline following its debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan, only sharpened these countries’ determination to try to curb American global power by supporting multipolarity and multilateralism. In this respect, China is leading the way by supporting international organizations such as Shanghai Cooperation Organization—the world’s largest regional political, economic, and security organization (https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/76995/#:~:text=MOSCOW.,to%20be%20rendered%20in%20rubles)—and BRICS as a counterbalance to Western economic, political, and security might
Indeed, while the SCO looks to advance (https://en.odkb-csto.org/international_org/sco/) a new “democratic, fair and rational international political and economic order,” BRICS—an acronym for five leading emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—promotes a transition to a multipolar world. They seek to provide alternatives to the Western-dominated International Monetary Fund and World Bank through institutions like the New Development Bank. Significantly, these organizations’ influence is being enhanced by the admission of new countries; For example, Algeria, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, and Iran have either submitted formal applications or expressed their willingness to join BRICS (https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20220714-brics-expects-egypt-saudi-arabia-and-turkey-to-join-group-soon/).
Central to these developments is the attempt to weaken the American dollar as a prelude to weakening the overall global position of the United States. Fundamentally, the dollar is the underbelly of the United States. By examining economic patterns and trends, it is clear that many countries are reconsidering the use of the dollar as their major trading currency.
Most importantly, China has been strategizing the introduction of yuan-denominated crude oil futures and the payment for imported crude in its own currency rather than the U.S. dollar. In fact, China and Saudi Arabia have been engaged in active talks about Riyadh pricing some of its oil sales to Beijing in yuan (https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541).
No doubt should Saudi Arabia begin trading oil in yuan, the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global petroleum market would suffer.
From an overseas vantage point, U.S. national debt has surpassed a staggering $31 trillion, and American global power has been declining. It’s no coincidence that some of the United States' allies or friends are considering using or holding different currencies in their trade and foreign reserves.
Today, Washington's global power is slowly yet steadily declining. By splitting the world into three broad camps, the Ukraine crisis, as prosecuted by NATO, has moved the “neutral camp” to inch closer to China and Russia.
- The national Interest (https://nationalinterest.org/feature/has-russia%E2%80%99s-invasion-ukraine-doomed-dollar-206047?page=0%2C1)
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❗️🇺🇦 Soledar direction
The situation as of 14:00 on 27 December 2022
Fighting continues in the vicinity of Bakhmut. "Wagnerians," together with the national militia of the LNR of Russia, are conducting an offensive in several areas.
However, the Ukrainian command is transferring reserves to retain control of the territory, so it is too early to talk about a quick liberation of Bakhmut.
🔻At the Bakhmut (Artemivsk) sector, assault detachments of the Wagner PMC have squeezed units of the 63rd AFU Ombra from five platoon strongholds near Opytnoye on the Ivangrad side.
▪️Fighting is fierce on the eastern outskirts of Kleshcheyevka. Units of the 28th Brigade are setting up minefields in the central part of the village.
▪️Artillery crews of the 28th and 53rd brigades and the 57th infantry brigade of the AFU are firing a barrage at the areas where the Russian Armed Forces are advancing. Mavic-3, Matrix-300, and Autel Evo II UAVs provide targeting.
▪️On the southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut, Russian forces are gradually pushing through the defenses of the Ukrainian garrison. Reinforcements and three tanks have been transferred to the area of the 57th Infantry Division to assist and replenish it.
In addition, the activity of formations of the 17th Tank Brigade from the Kherson direction has been noted in Kramatorsk. Earlier, one of the battalions was spotted in the Liman area.
▪️The number of casualties is increasing day by day. Ukrainian formations are spreading information that fewer than 100 of the 800 mobilized who arrived earlier are still alive.
▪️From Kharkov Oblast, redeployment of forces from the TERO has begun - despite the formal relation to the TERO, the units are equipped with heavy equipment and air defense complexes. In Dnipropetrovsk oblast, the 56th infantry battalion is being re-equipped, which will be completed in January 2023.
A training camp for mobilized citizens is being deployed at the Cherkasy firing range, while in Bilozorie, southwest of the administrative center, the units of the 53rd mechanized brigade of the AFU are being re-staffed after being withdrawn from the combat zone.
🔻On the Soledar sector, the Wagnerians continue to advance in several directions, systematically improving their tactical position. Currently, fighting is taking place in the vicinity of Razdolovka, Veseloye, and on the eastern outskirts of Soledar from the direction of Bakhmutskyy.
▪️ Units of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade and 46th Airmobile Brigade of the AFU are defending in nearly destroyed settlements with no serious fortifications. Holding the villages is complicated by artillery and aviation fire by the Russian Armed Forces and problems with ammunition supply.
▪️Attack groups of the 128th Ukrainian Armed Forces' Ogsh Brigade attempted to break through the advancing ranks of the Russian Armed Forces in the area of Stryapovka. As a result of the counterattack by Russian servicemen, the AFU lost control over four positions.
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[In reply to Slavyangrad STANDS WITH #SERBIA]
Clarification : The armed forces of Ukraine have not captured Kremmenna or Svatovo. However, according to Russian military officers, the Ukrainians tried to capture the towns but lost around 1,000 men in the battle. As per Russian reports, all Ukrainian attacks have been repulsed. The reports of the "surrender" of the cities are fake, however, according to Russian channels, the AFU command has already reported to Zelensky about the "capture," but it's fake, and they have not captured any significant territory. Now, for a political victory, they attempted to capture the towns but suffered significant losses, and they may try another offensive in this area.
The previous post from " military chronicle ":
The AFU rushed to report to Zelensky on the capture of Kremenna. This cost Kiev 1,000 soldiers and officers.
In late December, Ukrainian Telegram channels spread information that the Russian Armed Forces were retreating from Svatov, while Kreminna (60 km from Slovyansk) was practically cut off and it was a matter of time to block it.
The commander of the Russian Legion detachment, Sergei Fomchenkov (call sign Fomich), told Military Chronicle that President Vladimir Zelensky, according to his radio intercepts, had already been informed of the capture of Kreminna. This, according to Fomich, was due to the fact that the AFU had accumulated excessive forces in the area of the Kreminna-Svatovo line and no longer had any doubts about its success.
Thus, the AFU rushed to report the capture of the town and therefore sent new reserves there in the hope of capturing the settlement and "implementing the report."
All attacks by units of the 14th and 92nd mechanised brigades of the AFU, supported by the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade, were repulsed.
The 80th and 95th Airborne Assault Brigades suffered heavy losses during the "probe" between Kremenna and Svatove. The 25th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU and units of the 66th Mechanized Brigade also recorded a large number of casualties during the Kremenna rush.
Active movement by the AFU since the autumn has been hampered by bad weather, gunfire positions, and constant reconnaissance drone activity. Convoys with Ukrainian equipment are detected at a distance of 10-12 km, after which they are fired upon.
According to the Military Chronicle, the number of dead and seriously wounded soldiers in the AFU brigades in the Svatove-Kreminna area after reports of the shift of the front line and the capture of Kreminna came close to 1,000.
According to another Military Chronicle source in the Russian Legion detachment, the AFU has faced a shortage of heavy equipment in this area, and almost all combat sorties are carried out using lightly armoured MaxxPro, Cougar, and Sisu Pasi vehicles. The vehicles receive critical artillery damage and are destroyed along with the paratroopers.
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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Chronicle of a special military operation
for December 27, 2022
🔻Starobelsk direction:
The situation on this sector of the front has hardly changed: mutual shelling and sorties of the DRG continue along the line of contact. At the same time, territorial control remains almost unchanged.
▪️ Artillery duels continue on the Kupyansko-Svatovsky section.
➖In addition, mercenaries from the "International Defense Legion of Ukraine" are pulled to Monachinovka and Liman 1st.
▪️In the Limansky sector, the 3rd battalion of the 25th air brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was able to occupy a stronghold near Krasnopopovka.
➖The Russian Armed Forces stopped the further advance of the Ukrainian army with artillery fire. Now the 25th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is waiting for reinforcements for further attempts to break through the defenses of the Russian forces.
➖South-west of Dibrova, the 111th troop brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is preparing for an attack on the RF Armed Forces and has equipped minefields in the area.
🔻Soledar direction:
The Ukrainian command continues to transfer forces to Bakhmut (Artemovsk) from other directions in order to prevent the RF Armed Forces from breaking the resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area.
▪️In the Bakhmutsky (Artemovsky) sector, the “Wagnerites” recaptured five strongholds from the 63rd Ombre of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Experienced from the side of Ivangrad.
➖ There is fighting in the eastern part of Kleshcheevka: Ukrainian fighters are laying minefields to prevent Russian forces from advancing.
➖The RF Armed Forces are slowly but consistently developing success in the southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut.
➖The number of Ukrainian casualties in recent weeks of fighting in the sector has increased significantly.
▪️In the Soledar sector, the assault detachments of the Wagner PMC are fighting on the eastern outskirts of Soledar, in the area of Razdolovka and Vesely.
➖128 AFU Ogbshr tried to attack the RF Armed Forces in the area of Stryapovka, but failed and were forced to withdraw from their positions.
🔻Donetsk direction:
▪️Fighting continues for control of Maryinka: Russian forces are trying to push the enemy onto the western outskirts of the city.
▪️Ukrainian formations attacked Donetsk, Gorlovka, Yasinovataya and Golmovsky.
🔻Zaporozhye region:
▪️ Artillery duels are taking place along the front line: the RF Armed Forces hit targets in Temirovka, Olgovsky, Poltavka and Malaya Tokmachka.
The enemy, in turn, fired at Tokmak and Chernigovka.
🔻Southern Front: Kherson direction
▪️In the south, Russian artillery attacked the facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kherson, Stanislav, Berislav and Sadovoe.
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