Daily Report from the Ukraine Field for 2023-02-04
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The X-101 missile that fell on January 26 in Vinnitsa turned out to be a previously unknown modification designed to break through Ukrainian air defense systems .
After dismantling the well-preserved fragments of the rocket and examining the obtained images, American and Ukrainian experts came to the conclusion that the new version of the Kh-101 was equipped with the L-504 862-4-22 trap firing system . In addition, the Otblesk-U optical trajectory correction system based on satellite images was on the rocket.
The principle of operation of the trap firing system and their composition is not known for certain, however, it is assumed that either the firing is carried out when the missile enters the initially defined areas with saturated air defense, or the radar warning system is integrated on board, which fires at the moment of threat.
As for the composition of the traps, there are also two versions. If these are ordinary false thermal targets, then they will only be able to withstand missiles with a thermal guidance head, such as MANPADS or R-60. If chaff is integrated into the traps, then they will already be able to reduce the effectiveness of missiles guided by radar.
In any case, a modification of the X-101 with a similar composition of equipment on board was not previously noticed, and its appearance indicates ongoing work to increase the survivability of cruise missiles during a breakthrough of Ukrainian air defense in order to destroy more objects.
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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Seversko-Kremennoy area
situation as of 10.00 February 4, 2023
🔻Russian troops launched an offensive at the Krasnopopovka-Kremennaya line a few days ago. The defensive lines of the 66th brigade, 25th brigade and 19th combined troop battalion were broken through in a swoop. The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in killed and wounded exceed hundreds of people.
▪️As a result of the attack on a wide front, the fighters of the RF Armed Forces advanced almost to Yampolovka , and in the Dibrov area they knocked out the territorial defense forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the south and south-west of the settlement, expanding the control zone in Serebryansky forestry .
❗️ Judging by the negotiations of the members of the 25th brigade, the offensive of the Russian Army was unexpected for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Retreating from the front lines, Ukrainian formations threw weapons and ammunition.
▪️Now the units of the 144th Motor Rifle Division of the RF Armed Forces are fixed on the occupied lines. There are active artillery duels. Formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are regrouping at the turn of Yampolovka - Terny .
▪️Several units of tanks from the 3rd battalion of the 17th detachment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as reinforcements from the 25th airborne brigade of the Airborne Forces of Ukraine, which occupy positions near Zhuravka Balka and in Yampolovka, arrived in the Terna area.
🔻In the Lisichansky sector , Russian assault detachments launched an attack on Belogorovka , as a result of which the village came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces. There is a cleanup going on at the moment.
During the fighting, a company of 81 oambr in the amount of 160 people was completely destroyed , one of the units was surrounded. The survivors fled their positions.
🔻Simultaneous advance of Wagner PMC assault detachments from Soledar , the 144th motorized rifle division of the RF Armed Forces in the Liman sector and the liberation of Belogorovka creates the preconditions for access to Seversk and its operational encirclement from the south, north and east.
A further offensive by the RF Armed Forces in this direction will call into question the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to hold it. The settlement is located in a lowland and it is virtually impossible to defend it.
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❗️Konstantinovka! Danger!
Information from the field about signs of preparation by Kyiv of a large-scale provocation in Konstantinovka is being confirmed.
Residents report a hidden exodus of remaining government workers.
According to another version, the city is being prepared for surrender or defense.
The civilian population was not warned.
Also:
❗️Donetsk Front! Attention !
Reliable sources provide information about the movement of large enemy columns from Konstantinovka to Chasov Yar.
The further transfer of reinforcements to Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) is not ruled out.
⭐️Earlier, the enemy has already lost several columns of equipment with personnel. Despite the losses trying to keep the city.
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What a Russian spring offensive in Ukraine could look like — The Telegraph (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/04/what-russian-spring-offensive-ukraine-could-look-like/)
The AFU will eventually have to retreat from Artemovsk (Bakhmut)
Mr Zelensky this week ruled out a retreat, saying on Thursday: "No one will surrender Bakhmut.
But among many people on the ground in Donbas, there is a feeling that Ukraine will eventually have to withdraw to a new line of defence - just as it did when retreating from Severodonetsk last summer.
The small town of Chasov Yar, the last stop before Bakhmut itself, is rapidly emptying as residents flee before it too becomes a battlefield.
But Bakhmut, which has drawn in vast numbers of Ukrainian troops, tanks and other resources, may prove a diversion.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US defence think tank, said on Friday that Russia’s main offensive effort would come further north, in the Luhansk region near the towns of Svatove and Kreminna.
A strike here might seek to catch the Ukrainians off balance in a less heavily defended area.
A Ukrainian officer based in Kharkiv told The Telegraph that intelligence showed the Russians were “getting ready” for a renewed offensive.
In an assessment that overlaps with the ISW’s prediction, he said they would probably attack from the east in an attempt to retake all the territory they lost to a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the region in September.
The first objective of that push would be to push the Ukrainians back from the critical supply line between Valyuki, a small town in Russia’s Belgorod region, to Svatove in the Luhansk region
They would then seek to cut the highway between Kharkiv and Izyum to interdict Ukrainian lines of supply to Donbas, he said. He said they did not have sufficient forces to attack Kharkiv city itself and doubted they would try.
And the Ukrainian officer in Kharkiv told the Telegraph he would not be surprised to see a strike further north straight across the border, perhaps in the Sumy region. The region has seen almost daily cross-border shelling, but no fighting since the Russian retreat in March. “There are many places they could go,” he said
But the wild card is in the south, said Kirill Mikhailov, an independent military researcher based in Kyiv.
“I don’t think they have the resources to do ‘February 24 redux’, an offensive on all fronts. But they’ve now got enough mobilised men to use them to hold the front lines, and concentrate their most experienced troops for a dangerous offensive in one area,” he said.
An attack on the southern front, which has been static for most of the war, would take advantage of the terrain and threaten the main supply routes to Ukrainian forces in Donbas.“It’s tank country down there,” he said, referring to the largely open spaces of the Black Sea lowlands.
“But they would also have to cover a lot of ground. It is 50 to 60 kilometres from the current front line to the highway from Dnipro to Donetsk.”
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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Soledar direction
situation at the end of February 4, 2023
🔻In the Soledar sector, assault detachments of the Wagner PMC are attacking the positions of the 10th Airborne Forces of Ukraine on the outskirts of Razdolovka , and are also moving westward from the village of Sakko and Vanzetti to Vasyukovka .
▪️Clashes continue in the vicinity of Krasnaya Gora and Paraskovievka . The enemy suffers significant losses: the Ukrainian command withdrew in the direction of Slavyansk separate units of the 46th detachment of the DShV and 147th about 116th TRO from Krasnaya Gora .
▪️Ukrainian UAV crews monitor the areas of advance of the RF Armed Forces and provide target designation of cannon and rocket artillery in the vicinity of Blagodatny .
🔻In Bakhmut , the "Wagnerites" entered the Stupka area in the north of the city. Fierce battles are going on in urban areas. Statements about a breakthrough in the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not true - Ukrainian formations continue to resist.
At the same time, the partial withdrawal of units from the northern suburbs of Bakhmut and the departure of 63 mechanized brigades from the city yesterday indicate preparations for a possible surrender of the garrison. Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are concentrating their efforts on holding the route to Chasy Yar in order to preserve the logistics hub.
▪️At the same time, intense fighting continues in the industrial zone on the eastern outskirts, as well as in residential areas in the southern part of the city, where assault squads are attacking the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Pervyy Radyansky Street.
🔻Southwest of Bakhmut , Russian units are advancing in the direction of the section of the Chasov Yar - Bakhmut highway. The Wagnerites advanced towards Krasnoe - less than one and a half kilometers remained to the suburbs.
▪️The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is transferring manpower and armored vehicles from Konstantinovka to the vicinity of Chasov Yar . At the same time, additional defensive lines are being prepared in Konstantinovka itself.
▪️Russian artillery is conducting a massive shelling of the areas where enemy reinforcements are concentrated on the Konstantinovka -Chasov Yar - Bakhmut highway.
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While a retreat from Artemovsk cannot be confirmed, the situation for the AFU is becoming more difficult by the hour. Several reports indicate that the Western masters want Ukraine to retreat to a stronger line of defense as the RF did when faced with the potential for a meat grinder in Kharkov and Kherson. However, all reports indicate that Zelensky and his circle are willing to hold Bakhmut to the last Ukrainian.
These gains and the turning fortunes are the result of the calculated decisions of the Russian military leaders and the grit and determination of the Wagner Orchestra. I'd give the latter much more credit than the former, but ultimately, given limited resources, I believe that the leadership made the right decisions to prepare for this eventuality.
The Spring brings new wunderwaffen, glide bombs and heavy tanks/armored vehicles, and the possibility of another Ukro Offensive. The Crimea is the big fish for them, but we'll see if they even get those plans in motion. Really, they'd need 5 times as many tanks as the West is currently offering, and far more than that relative to what we will actually see delivered.
Still, be prepared for a bloody and brutal slog. There are no easy days ahead. I'm sure we'll see what else the West and the Kyiv puppets have up their sleeve before this is all over.
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The first video with Scott Ritter is tremendous.