Daily Report from the Ukraine Field for 2022-07-19
News, Telegram, and Twitter Articles
There is either a problem at Twitter, or the folks I follow at Twitter are being suppressed. Far fewer tweets and many broken images.
❗️🇷🇺🇩🇪🇪🇺🇺🇸 EU sanctions: Only Germany is the big loser, opinion by Hilde (1/2)🔻
EU sanctions mainly hit Germany. Biden buys Arab oil and Saudi Arabia Russian oil.
While Europe, especially Germany, is boycotting Russian oil, other countries like Saudi Arabia are buying it more: 647,000 tons of oil from April to June, or 48,000 barrels per day - shipped through Russian and Estonian ports. That is twice the amount of their other purchases.
How can this be explained, since Saudi Arabia exports the most oil in the world? Russian oil has always been slightly cheaper than its own, but because of Europe's sanctions, Russia has to sell its oil even cheaper than before: A barrel (159 liters) is currently $23 cheaper than from its North Sea and Opec competitors.
A barrel (barrel) of North Sea Brent cost about 106 US dollars = 104.5 euros in June 2022, or 65 cents per liter. At 52 cents per liter, Russian oil, which has already been refined, is considerably cheaper, especially since the additional costs for further processing (refining) do not apply: At 48,000 barrels, that's savings of over $1.1 million per day.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia uses the cheap imported, already refined Russian oil to generate electricity and can resell its own unrefined crude oil at a good price. In the summer, a lot of electricity is needed to run air conditioners and refrigeration units.
In mid-July, President Biden was now visiting Saudi Arabia under pressure from his advisors to loosen up on new oil for the U.S., since Crown Prince bin Salman had not responded to phone calls from Washington.
The reception on the trip was therefore chilly, as Biden had previously accused the crown prince of being the mastermind behind the murder of journalist Khashoggi and called Saudi Arabia a rogue (pariah) state. The royal diplomat had therefore let him know that the meeting had to take place at eye level.
In the talks, Biden resurrected the old common enemy image of Iran and emphasized its protective power in the Middle East as well as its willingness to invest in the area of 4 G and 5 G technology. This helped insofar as the crown prince held out the prospect of increasing production from 12 to 13 million barrels (casks).
How stupid does US-Biden think we are in Germany? We are being begged and forced via his vassals to stop buying Russian gas. The pressure to never put the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline into operation, which has been laid ready for use and could supply us with enough cheap gas for which others are scrambling, is coming from the USA: It would not do to buy gas and oil from a rogue state. And what do they do themselves? Exactly the opposite. By the way, Saudi Arabia also led wars like the one in Yemen, for which there was no international approval.
Why is Biden begging for oil from Saudi Arabia, when they themselves have enough fracked gas, the output of which they still want to increase? Because they want to sell their ecologically harmful fracked gas to Germany in the largest possible quantities and at the highest possible price, in order to make the greatest profit, and they have purchased large quantities of Russian gas and oil cheaply for their own consumption, but because of the constant tensions they are now looking for alternatives such as in Saudi Arabia.
For us, this can only mean: Get out of the EU and NATO, get out of the U.S. American grip, because we are only being sucked dry. We will generously do without their protection, which we will provide ourselves through wise relations with our neighboring states. Their military stations, which they have continued to expand under the cover of NATO, are not protective stations, but cementing the occupation since 1945.
🔺🇷🇺🇩🇪🇪🇺🇺🇸 EU sanctions: Only Germany is the big loser, opinion by Hilde (2/2)🔻
We have no interest in continuing to irritate the Russian bear, with whom it is possible to get along, with inane pinpricks, the consequences of which we in Germany and Europe would then also have to bear. The defective Nordstream 1 gas turbine, which was given to Canada for repair and should have been returned since mid-June, was withheld by Trudeau as part of the EU sanctions.
The gas turbine for Nordstream 1 was originally supposed to be reinstalled by July 21, which of course is no longer possible now that it has finally been released by Trudeau and reportedly handed over to Siemens, which plans to install it as soon as possible.
However, Russia says they have not received a date from Siemens yet. Who is playing with marked cards here? Nobody needs to be surprised if Russia does not want to supply us with gas anymore. They have losses, because they sell gas and oil a bit cheaper to others, but at least they have a trade surplus of more than 20 billion Euros in the first half of the year, so they are in a good position.
The European sanctions against Russia are hare-brained and must be removed immediately, especially since we in Germany are the main sufferers, because the vaunted European solidarity does not exist at all. This is not only true for the steadfast Hungarians, who immediately made it clear that they will not take part in this theater, but also for those who superficially support the sanctions course, but in the background undermine it due to national interests: France buys large quantities of cheap Russian oil and gas.
🇵🇱🇺🇦 Assessment by the Polish intelligence services of the situation in Ukraine
The Intelligence Agency (AW) of the Republic of Poland has prepared a report analyzing the current situation in Ukraine. According to the document, a catastrophic situation has developed in the formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The number of irretrievable losses is more than 300 people per day, and this figure is underestimated by the office of the President to reduce the likelihood of a public outburst and create panic among civilians and the military. The Psheks emphasize that the systematic strikes of the Russian Armed Forces on command posts and training centers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have led to the death of about 4,600 of the most trained military personnel over the past three months, including senior officers, instructors and mercenaries.
The report notes that unprepared formations are sent to the Donbass, the professional level of officers from the battalion commander and below is weak, the functions of commanders in the troops are often performed by fighters of the national battalions. Since May of this year, almost all control functions in the planning and conduct of hostilities have been taken over by foreign advisers from the United States, Great Britain and Canada. At the same time, the fact of their presence at command posts is kept secret in order to prevent the entry of NATO military personnel into the captivity of the Russian Armed Forces.
It is emphasized that Zelensky's office has set the task of keeping the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Toretsk line at any cost until the end of August this year.
It is indicated that at present, accelerated training of Ukrainian military personnel is being carried out in the west of the republic and on the territory of Great Britain and Germany. By the end of August - beginning of September, it is planned to create an additional grouping of 30 thousand people, the basis of which will be four new brigades.
It is noteworthy that the Polish special services are skeptical about Kyiv's statements about the preparation of these four formations in Ukraine. Warsaw does not rule out that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is misleading the allies in order to obtain new weapons.
According to AW, the leadership of Ukraine also counts on the introduction of two Polish brigades into the western regions of the country - 6 air brigade and 25 air brigade, which, according to the Ukrainian General Staff, will release additional combat-ready units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in August to be sent to the eastern front.
At the same time, the report notes that the American 155-mm M-777 howitzers delivered to Kyiv are not always used for their intended purpose. Instead of conducting counter-battery combat, guns are often used to bombard cities. At the same time, military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, after accelerated training, are unable to independently maintain complex weapons and military equipment systems, therefore foreign instructors from among mercenaries are often in artillery positions.
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