Daily Report from the Ukraine Field for 2022-12-03
News, Telegram, and Twitter Articles
[ Video ]
Armed Forces of Ukraine are actively transferring equipment away from the Kherson direction at night, local citizens report.
Those who live in the Nikolaev direction claim it is increasingly difficult to sleep because of the hum of armored vehicles and say it hasn't been like this for a long time.
After the withdrawal of our troops beyond the Dnieper, enemy attacks on the Kherson front weakened due to the impossibility of forcing through the water barrier.
On the Kherson front, there are also artillery duels, skirmishes and clashes with the DRG, at night the saboteurs try to penetrate our coast, but over and over again they run into the fire of our fighters who control the coast.
From @pridnestrovec
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[Forwarded from Song of Oil and LNG]
🇪🇺⛽️ Gas celling for Europe
▪️The gas price in Europe could brake the ceiling proposed by the European Commission of $3,000 USD per 1,000 m3 and reach higher levels. In the current situation it looks quite realistic.
▪️In the past weeks we saw a minor price correction on the gas market, but this should not deceive us. The heating season in EU has just started. The US LNG terminal system capacity remains limited (https://t.me/songofoil/22) and does not match the demand.
▪️Seeking for alternative energy supplies Germany managed (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/qatarenergy-conocophillips-sign-lng-supply-deal-germany-2022-11-29/) to get some more LNG, but not right now. QatarEnergy and ConocoPhillips signed an agreement to export LNG to Germany for at least 15 years, starting in 2026. Two million tons will be supplied annually from Ras Laffan to Brunsbüttel. This small amount is no comparison to the Nord Stream (https://www.nord-stream.com/press-info/press-releases/the-nord-stream-pipeline-transported-a-volume-of-592-billion-cubic-metres-of-natural-gas-in-2021-522/), but at least it’s a long-term contract instead of spot. An unpleasant side-effect of the agreement is that German energy security will be partly controlled by a Qatari and an American company. The gas price under this contract has not yet been disclosed. So ordinary Germans can only guess how much the Middle Eastern monarchy and the American corporation will earn.
▪️The main reason for such imbalances is shortage of natural gas. Oil and gas industry was underinvested in the past 20 years. Since 2016 investments by EU companies in conventional energy sources literally collapsed. This led to a substantial gap in energy supply and demand, that can’t be filled with renewables.
▪️Historically, European gas consumption peaks in January. Just a year ago the supply of Russian pipeline gas to Europe reached about 600 million m3 / day, taking into account that EU gas storage facilities were filled up to 85-95% in general.
▪️That’s why long-term contracts were the keystone on European energy system. Such contracts are dominant on the market and allow to extend investment horizon over 5, 10 or even 15 year. Spot trading has hardly surpassed 30% of the whole gas and oil market. And this ratio has been quite stable for decades. Now it’s changing dramatically at the expense of Europe, and this change will continue to push up the retail prices.
▪️Consequences
It is clear that at some point the EU authorities will be forced to make hard decisions and cut off certain categories of consumers. Critical infrastructure will remain intact, while production, commercial and private gas consumption is in crosshairs.
▪️Price celling mechanism
As reported, the instrument proposed by the EC consists of a price ceiling of €275/MWh ($2,951/1000 m3 currently) for the next month gas futures at the TTF hub (https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?span=3&marketId=5460494).
The mechanism activates automatically when 2 conditions match:
- the estimated price of the contract will exceed €275/MWh
- TTF prices will stay above the indicative LNG price of €58/MWh for 10 consecutive trading days
Some EU energy ministers view €264/MWh price level as more acceptable. The final discussion is set for December 13th.
In any case the proposed ceiling is well above the current quotation level but below the peak prices seen in August (€350/MWh or $3,800/1,000 m3). The mechanism is likely to start working from January 1, 2023.
🔺Given that oil and gas industry was underinvested, the energy market in 2023, 2024 and 2025 will remain under sellers’ control. The price of $3,000USD is apparently inevitable. The EU states are quite limited in defending this price level. It’s necessary to use subsidies to compensate higher prices for the household gas consumption. Basically this is the only option that can help keeping prices under control for a while. A good question is - for how long subsidies will work before inflation concerns will outweight them? All other options will definitely have a positive effect, but not before 2025-2026.
#Europe #gas
@songofoil
[ Album ]
‼️🇺🇦 Tough battles on the front near Svatovo-Kreminna: the enemy tries to break through the front but dies under fire from the Russian army
Svatovo-Kreminna defensive operation. Combat summary for two days.
▪️The breakthrough near Kremenna is not confirmed from the ground. There have been several attempted attacks, all detached by the massive fire of Group O artillery brigades.
▪️3 company tactical groups of the AFU advanced to attack Chervonopopivka. The enemy's plan is uncovered in time by Special Forces, hit by howitzers and MLRS while being corrected by drones. The enemy is dispersed and pushed back to their original positions.
▪️One of the torture attacks was from the direction of Stelmakhovka, also foiled by fire
During the day's fighting in the area, up to 100 Ukrainian fighters, two tanks, two armoured combat vehicles, and 2 pick-up trucks were destroyed and wounded; 11 AFU fighters surrendered.
▪️ The Ukrainian armed forces have been attacking in the direction of Kuzemivka LNR for several days now. A day ago, active action by the Russian Armed Forces and artillery fire drove them back to their initial positions with significant losses in manpower and equipment. Then on Friday, they attacked again in the direction of Kuzemivka, losing up to 60 fighters, two tanks, a BMP, 3 APCs, and four pick-up trucks.
▪️The enemy also struck Svatovo with a pack of Grad MLRSs, followed by artillery strikes at the identified coordinates, destroying enemy MLRSs.
▪️ In the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian armed forces attacked from the area of Kotlyarovka in Kharkiv Oblast. Over 50 Ukrainian fighters, two tanks, 4 BMPs, and 2 Kozak armored vehicles were destroyed.
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/33205?single
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[ Photo ]
Map of hostilities and the situation on the fronts in the evening of December 3
👍The brutal, massive shelling of Donetsk, undertaken by the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the past few days, is based on a cynical calculation. The Kyiv regime wants to pull our air defense from the front to defend the city. Therefore, the militants use Grad MLRS for shelling a peaceful city. In addition, all this is happening on the eve of a possible offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the Svatovo-Kremennaya line. Barbaric actions have not caused any irritation in Ukrainian society for a long time, because the residents of Donbass have not been spared for eight years, and now they are even less likely to.
⚔️The situation on the fronts for the past day:
⚫️ Svatovo-Kremennoye direction
The Armed Forces of Ukraine once again counterattacked in the direction of Kuzemovka of the LPR, but thanks to the work of Russian artillery and heavy flamethrower systems, the enemy was thrown back to their original positions with losses in manpower and equipment. Also, the militants tried to advance in the direction of Kolomyychikha and Zhitlovka of the LPR, but were stopped by the work of our artillery.
⚫️Donetsk direction
All unsuccessful attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of Andreevka, Kurdyumovka, Avdeevka and Marinka were repulsed by units of the Russian army. The enemy lost up to 60 militants, two tanks and five armored vehicles.
⚫️Ugledar direction
Attack aviation strikes with the support of artillery frustrated the attempts of the militants to counterattack our positions in the areas of Sladkoye, Shevchenko and Novomayorsky. The enemy lost up to 40 soldiers killed and wounded, as well as two infantry fighting vehicles and five vehicles.
💥Ukrainian Mi-8 was shot down in the Selidovo region of the DPR. In addition, the American AN / TPQ-37 radar was destroyed in Kaleniki of the DPR.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/71883
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What a news roundup!
TQ for this thread, very revealing in all its nastyness.