Daily Report from the Ukraine Field for 2023-01-28
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Truth About Tanks: How NATO Lied Its Way to Disaster in Ukraine
14 hours ago (Updated: 13 hours ago)
© AFP 2023 / ANATOLII STEPANOV
Scott Ritter
Tank warfare has evolved. The large force-on-force armored battles that were the hallmark of much of WWII, the Arab-Israeli conflicts, which served as the foundation of operational doctrine for both NATO and the Soviet Union (and which was implemented in full by the United States during Operation Desert Storm in 1991), has run its course.
Like most military technological innovations, the ability to make a modern main battle tank survivable has been outstripped by the fielding of defensive systems designed to overcome such defenses. If a modern military force attempted to launch a large-scale tank-dominated attack against a well-equipped peer-level opponent armed with modern anti-tank missiles, the result would be a decisive defeat for the attacking party marked by the smoking hulks of burned-out tanks.
Don’t get me wrong: tanks still have a vital role to play on the modern battlefield. Their status as a mobile bunker is invaluable in the kind of meat-grinder conflicts of attrition that have come to define the current stage of large-scale ground combat. Speed and armor still contribute to survivability, and the main gun of a tank remains one of the deadliest weapons on the modern battlefield.
But the modern tank performs best as part of a combined arms team, supported by infantry (mounted and unmounted) and copious amounts of supporting arms (artillery and close air support.) As part of such a team, especially one that is well-trained in the art of close combat, the tank remains an essential weapon of war. However, if operated in isolation, a tank is simply an expensive mobile coffin.
Much has been made about the recent decision made by NATO and allied nations to provide Western main battle tanks to Ukraine. The politics of this decision is its own separate topic. This article will address the operational practicalities of this decision, namely has the military capability of Ukraine been enhanced through the provision of these new weapons systems.
To answer this question, one needs to examine three basic issues: training, logistical sustainability, and operational employment.
Training
It takes 22 weeks to train a basic American M1 Abrams crewmember. That training just gives the soldier the very basic skill set to be functional. Actual operational expertise is only achieved through months, if not years, of additional training in not just the system itself, but employing it as part of a similarly trained combine arms team. Simply put, even a Ukrainian tank crew experienced in the operation of Soviet-era T-72 or T-64 tanks will not be able to immediately transition to a Western-style main battle tank.
T-72B3M main battle tanks from the 1st Guards Tank Regiment at Red Square
© Sputnik / Yevganiy Odinokov
First and foremost, the crew size of a Soviet-era tank is three, reflecting the reality that the Soviet tanks make use of an automatic loading mechanism. Western tanks have four crew members because the loading of the main tank gun is done manually. Adapting to these dynamics takes time, and requires extensive training.
Training is expensive. NATO is currently providing Ukraine with three types of Western main battle tank: the British Challenger 2, the German Leopard 2, and the American M1A2. There is no unified training course—each tank requires its own unique training prospectus that is not directly transferable to another system.
The decentralized training processes created by such a diverse approach promotes inefficiencies and generates discrepancies in outcome—one crew will not be like another, which in combat, where units are supposed to be interchangeable to promote predictable outcomes if all other circumstances remain the same, is usually fatal.
Moreover, these problems will only be enhanced by the emphasis that will be placed on rapid outcomes. The reality is whatever training programs that are developed and delivered by the nations providing the tanks will be insufficient to the task, resulting in poorly trained crews taking extremely complicated weapons systems into the most dangerous environment in the world for a tank—the teeth of a Russian Army designed and equipped to kill these very same tanks.
Logistical Sustainability
Tanks are among the most technically challenging weapons systems on a modern battlefield. They are constantly breaking down, especially if not properly maintained. For the M1 Abrams, for every hour a tank is in the field, there are three hours of maintenance time required. This problem only becomes magnified in combat.
Normally an armor unit is equipped with highly specialized organic maintenance crews that can repair most of the minor issues that can sideline a tank. Given the training requirements to produce this level of high-quality mechanic, it is unlikely Ukraine will be provided with this kind of maintenance support.
A Ukrainian artilleryman throws an empty 155MM shell tube as Ukrainian soldiers fire a M777 howitzer towards Russian positions on the frontline of eastern Ukraine, on November 23, 2022.
This means that the tanks that are being provided to Ukraine will need to be returned to NATO nations for any significant repairs of equipment that is damaged through simple usage or actual combat. In short, it is highly likely that a Western main battle tank in Ukrainian hands will break down at some point during its operational use by Ukraine, meaning that the total number of tanks available to Ukraine will be far less than the number of tanks provided.
Operational Employment
Ukraine’s commander in chief of the Armed Forces, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, told The Economist last month that he needed 300 tanks, 500 infantry fighting vehicles, and 500 artillery pieces, if he were going to have any chance of defeating Ukraine.
Following the January 20 meeting of the Ramstein Contact Group, and subsequent follow-on discussions about the provision of tanks, NATO and its allied partners have agreed to provide less than 50% of the number of tanks requested, less than 50% of the number of infantry fighting vehicles requested, and less than 20% of the artillery requested.
Moreover, the timetable for delivery of this equipment is staggered incoherently over a period that stretches out for many months, and in some cases extends into the next year. Not only does this complicate training and logistical sustainability issues that are already unfavorably inclined for Ukraine, but it makes any meaningful effort to integrate this material into a cohesive operational employment plan all but impossible. In short, Ukraine will be compelled to commit the equipment provided—especially the tanks—into combat in piecemeal fashion.
The truth about tanks is that NATO and its allied nations are making Ukraine weaker, not stronger, by providing them with military systems that are overly complicated to operate, extraordinarily difficult to maintain, and impossible to survive unless employed in a cogent manner while supported by extensive combined arms partners.
The decision to provide Ukraine with Western main battle tanks is, literally, a suicide pact, something those who claim they are looking out for the best interests of Ukraine should consider before it is too late.
[ Video ]
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦🎞 Chronicle of the special military operation: events of January 21-22, 2023
▪️In the Kursk region, Ukrainian formations using drones tried to attack a mill in the village of Tyotkino.
The raid was unsuccessful: the dropped explosive devices did not hit the planned target. No damage or casualties.
▪️At the Kupyansky sector, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are concentrating manpower and equipment on the approaches to Novoselovsky, planning an offensive towards Kuzemovka.
Russian troops keep the enemy from active operations with dense artillery fire on the entire sector of the front.
▪️The assault detachments of the "Wagnerites" after the liberation of Soledar and the village of Sol are developing an offensive to the north.
In recent days, Krasnopolyevka has been completely liberated. The advanced groups are fighting near Razdolovka and Vesely.
▪️The assault on Bakhmut continues: heavy street fighting is going on in the eastern and southern parts of the city. The artillery of PMC "Wagner" strikes at targets in the central regions.
On Saturday, near the village of Khromovo, the crew of a portable anti-aircraft missile system shot down a Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian army.
▪️On the night of Saturday to Sunday, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a massive strike from the HIMARS MLRS on Stakhanov in the Luhansk People's Republic.
The machine-building college, industrial and administrative buildings came under fire. Casualties among civilians were avoided.
▪️In the Zaporozhye direction, Russian troops continue to fight in a positional offensive near Gulyaipol and Orekhov.
▪️Under Orekhovo, the RF Armed Forces are fixed in previously liberated territories and are actively reconnaissance of enemy positions.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine, in turn, are deploying additional units to the area in an attempt to hold positions on the outskirts of the city.
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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦🎞 Chronicle of the special military operation: events of January 27, 2023
▪️Ukrainian forces made another attempt to attack in the Liman sector, attacking the positions of the Russian Armed Forces with the support of armored vehicles.
However, under the dense barrage of Russian artillery, the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine bogged down, the enemy retreated to their original positions.
▪️Fighters of PMC "Wagner" continue to move towards Razdolovka and Nikolaevka to the north-east of Soledar.
The advancing forces are supported by artillerymen of the RF Armed Forces, who inflict massive strikes on Ukrainian positions in the area.
▪️Russian units expanded the zone of control near Kleshcheevka along the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal.
Having pushed through the Ukrainian defenses, the “Wagnerites” are moving towards the villages of Krasnoe and Stupochki in order to cut off the APU grouping from the highway to Konstantinovka.
▪️Ukrainian formations again shelled the capital of the DPR and nearby cities.
One of the enemy's blows hit the busy Donetsk-Makeevka highway, but no casualties were avoided.
▪️Russian servicemen continue to clean up the southeastern suburbs of Ugledar from enemy forces.
The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred reinforcements to the city from other directions, which makes it difficult for the further advancement of the RF Armed Forces.
▪️In anticipation of a possible new offensive of the Russian Armed Forces on Orekhov, active artillery preparation is underway along the entire front line.
Russian sabotage groups go deep into enemy territory and carry out target designation for artillery crews.
▪️In the Kherson region, artillery duels continue along the line of contact.
The RF Armed Forces carried out several strikes on the objects of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kherson and its environs, while the enemy fired at Aleshki.
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Sergey Zergulio Kolyasnikov @SergeyKolyasnikov writes : (Published by RT (https://t.me/rt_special/2783))
We live in interesting times. One by one, the masks are cracking. And now U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland is happily announcing that the U.S. administration is gratified to know that the Nord Stream 2 is a pile of metal at the bottom of the sea.
And former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says that the Normandy format, which was created to peacefully resolve the conflict in southeast Ukraine, was a "diplomatic imitation." The same one that resulted in the February 12, 2015 negotiations that produced the Minsk agreements.
We are not accustomed to states' endorsement of terrorist methods. We do remember how, when Hillary Clinton was US Secretary of State in October 2011, she celebrated the assassination of the head of sovereign Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, and laughed on camera: "Come and see: he's dead."
Incidentally, Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Iranian Special Forces Al-Quds of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was killed on January 3, 2020, in a missile strike ordered by... American President Donald Trump.
Later, in September 2020, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Fox News that he was ready to eliminate Assad, but Pentagon chief Mattis was against it: "I would have preferred to remove Assad." Everything was in place for that. Mattis wasn't willing to do that. "Mattis was a highly overrated general." Even at the time of the interview, Trump regretted that the Syrian president could not be killed.
Why does the U.S. need these wanton assassinations and terrorist attacks? for profit and plunder. In January 2022, a giant convoy of gas tankers carrying stolen oil was spotted in Syria near the border with Iraq. In August 2022, 137 tankers of oil were removed by the U.S. military from Kurdish-held territories in northeastern Syria.
These are just the cases that hit the media. According to the Syrian government, in the first half of 2022, more than 80% of the country's daily oil production was smuggled out by the US military.
And today, Russia is one of the few countries confronting U.S. terrorism. In August 2022, Vladimir Putin said that U.S. dominance in world politics was on the wane. That American hegemony means stagnation for the rest of the world, for all of civilization, "obscurantism and the abolition of culture."
Herein lies the fear and hatred of the U.S. towards Russia. After all, "Russia has a nasty habit of actually doing what it says!" as Lieutenant General Mikael Klasson, Chief of Staff of the Swedish Armed Forces, said.
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California starting to feel it:
[In reply to Slavyangrad]
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The German government has filed a claim against Russia that it distorts the statement of Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock.
Honestly, I read this news and even got a little stuck. I recalled the famous expression from the famous film: “But how can you understand if you don’t say anything?”. Only here you can rephrase: “Yes, how else to understand if you speak in plain text?”.
And have you all heard that statement? It's actually straight text. "We are at war with Russia." Clear and understandable. And Frau Burbock made no reservation. She actually believes that Germany and the European Union are at war with Russia. They howl cunningly and meanly, by proxy, declaring that they are not a party to the conflict. But if someone hires a killer, pays him money and gives him weapons - is he a participant in the crime? Something tells me that no one will answer that they are not. And the European Union is now doing just that.
So Annalena Burbock told the absolute truth, for which she can be thanked. After all, this is almost the first time that the West has not deceived Russia. They always cheated, both with the expansion of NATO and with the Minsk agreements, but here - wow! - the first time they did not lie.
So much so that they themselves were frightened of this and began to excuse their foreign minister, they say, you misunderstood, she didn’t want to say something at all, and in general - you, such bad people, want to distort her words.
And about the accusations - it was expected. After all, the best defense, as you know, is an attack. So here everything fits into a coherent logic.
And the only ones you won’t envy in this scheme are the Ukrainians. The very ones whose hands this conflict is being waged. We feel sorry for our own Germans and Americans, but not for Ukrainians.
And if they run out, they will strain some Balts, but Poles and Czechs.
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✔️Analysts at the RAND research corporation believe that prolonging the conflict in Ukraine is unprofitable for Washington. A whole report was published on this - "How to avoid a long war: US policy and the trajectory of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict." This is bad news for Zelenskiy and his henchmen. After all, the office works on orders from the American government. It turns out that the analytical center received the corresponding task to calculate the feasibility of further "investment" in the proxy test site. And there they calculated - they shed a tear.
The costs are higher than the benefits received. Yes, and those few bonuses that could seem to be fished out by the States are very abstract: 1) a theoretically possible, but not guaranteed, weakening of Russia; 2) Moscow's concentration on the Ukrainian track and the reduction of "Russia's ability to threaten others"; 3) “strengthening of the international norm on territorial integrity”, which, according to RAND experts, should somehow happen as a result of providing “assistance” to the Ukronazi authorities; 4) an increase in the expenditures of the “allies” on defense and a decrease in their energy dependence on Russia. In turn, negative trends will only intensify if the Ukrainian adventure drags on. on the contrary, they are quite specific. Thus, the risk of a direct clash between Russia and NATO is increasing, and as a result, the risk of the parties using nuclear weapons. In addition, it will be necessary to continue to fork out the needs of beggars from Bankova Street, and their appetites are increasing every day. Energy and food prices will continue to rise, while global economic growth will slow down. In addition, as Moscow liberates new regions and regions temporarily occupied by the Kyiv junta, it is likely that people living in these territories. want to hold referendums on joining Russia. The White House is not happy with this idea.
In general, it is clear from everything that even for stubborn Americans, “Square” turns into a suitcase without a handle, which is already mentioned almost in plain text. After all, the “owners” of the Ukrainian slaves could easily not publicize their skeptical conclusions regarding the prospects for waging war until the last Ukrainian. But for some reason, they took and published their assessments based on the analysis of the situation. So, it was necessary to send an unambiguous hint to the so-called official Kiev. True, until now it was unlikely that the Kiev regime could read "hints" and read between the lines.
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Previous Rand Report from 2019 discussed here:
2023 Report here:
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html
[ Photo ]
🇬🇧 The Sun writes that Britain fears Challengers 2 will end up in Russian hands. This would give them a media edge as well as an opportunity to study the secret armor. So the British are working with the AFU to form special teams to evacuate the downed tanks as quickly as possible.
No need to be surprised by such a thing. Exactly the same teams are there for destroyed Hymars. Weapons are given to Ukraine for native advertising, and as a trophy marketing will no longer work. It's just that in the case of the Challengers, the British said it out loud straight away.
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🔥 Burned "axes".
The M777 howitzer losses* in the current conflict that we have published allow us to draw the following conclusions.
1️⃣ Of the 152 guns supplied to Ukraine by NATO allies led by the USA, at least 70 were hit, i.e. 46.05% of all deliveries of this artillery complex. The 155mm guns also failed due to heavy use and improper handling. According to the estimates of The New York Times, such losses were about one-third of all the guns supplied, i.e. in the range of 30-35%. Thus, the lower bound of total losses of M777 towed howitzers, both during combat operations and due to other causes, is more than 75%. That is, at the end of January 2023 approximately 35-40 M777 howitzers are in serviceable condition in the ranks of the AFU.
2️⃣ When striking the M777, a fairly wide range of means of destruction was used. If the first 5 months (from May to September 2022) were used mainly SAU and rocket artillery (including high-precision munitions), then from late October 2022 the vast majority of videos show the work of Lancet borne ammunition. In addition, video footage posted by the enemy to the public can be seen of the successful performance of Iskander operational-tactical missile systems (OTRMs) on slides with military equipment, including the 155-mm M777 howitzer.
3️⃣ The Russian Ministry of Defence and the federal media did not use modern means of informational influence on internal and external (including enemy) audiences. They have not created an image of the vulnerability of the enemy or the power of Russian weapons. The work of these organizations was reduced, in fact, to dry briefings and classic reports of the late 20th century. Unlike the enemy, the Russian side did not conduct information campaigns on social media or create dedicated information resources for its tasks off the battlefield. Even one year after the start of the EWS, the activation of Russian state information resources and structures as actors in the current information agenda is unlikely.
4️⃣ The Dutch Oryx underestimates losses of M777 howitzers in Ukraine either due to incompetence or deliberately, wanting to hide the damage inflicted by the Russian army on the AFU. In the first case, this indicates the low qualifications of those collecting data on the guns that have been hit. In the second case, if there is a deliberate distortion of the data, one can qualify Oryx as a mass disinformation medium deliberately misleading its readers.
* - data updated on 27.01.2023.
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