Daily Report from the Ukraine Field for 2022-07-30
News, Telegram, and Twitter Articles
Please skip the next three images if you can’t handle gore. What Ukraine is doing to Donetsk can’t be sanitized. I can’t report it any other way. It’s just reality that the west would like ignored.
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Donbass offensive: situation in Eastern Ukraine as the end of July 29, 2022 by @rybar:
▪️ The Ukrainian formations shelled the Klimov district of the Bryansk region this morning. Governor of the region Alexander Bogomaz said that the strikes were carried out in the village of Sachkovichi, power lines were damaged, there were no casualties. In addition, in the morning air defenses went off over Belgorod.
▪️ Russian artillery struck enemy positions in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv regions.
▪️ The front line in Kharkov Region remained unchanged, with position battles and artillery duels continuing in the north of the region. The Russian Armed Forces destroyed a TRO station near Feyerbach Square in the city of Kharkov and hit AFU facilities in Chuguev and Bogodukhov districts of the Kharkov region with a missile strike.
▪️ In Donbass, fighting is underway in the Bakhmut (Artemivsk) direction.
➖In Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, the Russian Armed Forces launched strikes against accumulations of enemy manpower.
➖Russian forces are fighting near the village of Vershina. A company of the 72nd Army Brigade of the AFU suffered heavy losses and lost combat effectiveness. Additional units have been redeployed to Kurdyumivka and Mykolaiv II to support the Ukrainian forces in this direction.
➖In Bakhmut (Artemivsk), the Ukrainian armed forces are preparing for a long-term defense: fortifications are being built, firing points are being created, and streets are being blocked.
➖In the area of Podgorodne and Zaitsevo, the AFU uses Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters for air strikes, and Su-24 aircraft near Paraskovievka and Ozaryanivka.
➖Ukrainian formations continued shelling towns in Donetsk agglomeration: there are wounded and killed civilians.
In the morning, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a massive strike on the territory of the penal colony in Yelenivka, where Ukrainian servicemen, including members of the Azov national regiment, were being held. Ukraine did not admit responsibility for this war crime and blamed Russia for the incident. At least 50 prisoners were killed and more than 75 wounded.
▪️ In the Zaporizhzhya direction, the Ukrainian armed forces shelled a granary in Kamenka-Dniprovska during the night hours. More than 9,000 tons of wheat were destroyed and several outbuildings, including a laboratory, were destroyed.
▪️ On the Krivoy Rog direction, the parties are preparing for a possible offensive by Ukrainian formations from the north.
➖After an unsuccessful attempt to cross the Ingulets River, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing for an offensive near Vysokopolye and Kreschenivka.
➖An Ukrainian DRG attempted to enter Russian Armed Forces-controlled territory at the Zolotaya Balka-Kreschenivka line. However, the group was spotted attempting to pass minefields, suffered losses and retreated to its original positions.
Units of the 60th detachment of the Reserve Corps were amassing forces in the area of Potemkino to prepare for an offensive. Firing positions are being established southeast of the village. Small-sized UAVs along the front line and Bayraktar UAVs south of Krivoy Rog provide reconnaissance of the RF Armed Forces' activities.
➖Additional AFU units, including members of the Aydar nationalist battalion, are deployed to Novovorontsovka.
#dijest #Bakhmut #Donetsk #Zaporozhye #karta #KrivoyRog #Lugansk #Russia #Seversk #Slavyansk #Ukraine
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🇬🇧 The rouble is soaring and Putin is stronger than ever - our sanctions have backfired by Simon Jenkins (1/2)
Energy prices are rocketing, inflation is soaring and millions are being starved of grain. Surely Johnson knew this would happen?
Western sanctions against Russia are the most ill-conceived and counterproductive policy in recent international history. Military aid to Ukraine is justified, but the economic war is ineffective against the regime in Moscow, and devastating for its unintended targets. World energy prices are rocketing, inflation is soaring, supply chains are chaotic and millions are being starved of gas, grain and fertiliser. Yet Vladimir Putin’s barbarity only escalates – as does his hold over his own people.
To criticise western sanctions is close to anathema. Defence analysts are dumb on the subject. Strategy thinktanks are silent. Britain’s putative leaders, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, compete in belligerent rhetoric, promising ever tougher sanctions without a word of purpose. Yet, hint at scepticism on the subject and you will be excoriated as “pro-Putin” and anti-Ukraine. Sanctions are the war cry of the west’s crusade.
The reality of sanctions on Russia is that they invite retaliation. Putin is free to freeze Europe this winter. He has slashed supply from major pipelines such as Nord Stream 1 by up to 80%. World oil prices have surged and eastern Europe’s flow of wheat and other foodstuffs to Africa and Asia has been all but suspended.
Britain’s domestic gas bills face tripling inside a year. The chief beneficiary is none other than Russia, whose energy exports to Asia have soared, driving its balance of payments into unprecedented surplus. The rouble is one of the world’s strongest currencies this year, having strengthened since January by nearly 50%. Moscow’s overseas assets have been frozen and its oligarchs have relocated their yachts, but there is no sign that Putin cares. He has no electorate to worry him.
The interdependence of the world’s economies, so long seen as an instrument of peace, has been made a weapon of war. Politicians around the Nato table have been wisely cautious about escalating military aid to Ukraine. They understand military deterrence. Yet they appear total ingenues on economics. Here they all parrot Dr Strangelove. They want to bomb Russia’s economy “back to the stone age”.
I would be intrigued to know if any paper was ever submitted to Boris Johnson’s cabinet forecasting the likely outcome for Britain of Russian sanctions. The assumption seems to be that if trade embargos hurt they are working. As they do not directly kill people, they are somehow an acceptable form of aggression. They are based on a neo-imperial assumption that western countries are entitled to order the world as they wish. They are enforced, if not through gunboats, then through capitalist muscle in a globalised economy. Since they are mostly imposed on small, weak states soon out of the headlines, their purpose has largely been of “feelgood” symbolism.
Continues in next post🔻
🔺(2/2) A rare student of this subject is the American economic historian Nicholas Mulder, who points out that more than 30 sanctions “wars” in the past 50 years have had minimal if not counterproductive impact. They are meant to “intimidate peoples into restraining their princes”. If anything they have had the opposite effect. From Cuba to Korea, Myanmar to Iran, Venezuela to Russia, autocratic regimes have been entrenched, elites strengthened and freedoms crushed. Sanctions seem to instil stability and self-reliance on even their weakest victim. Almost all the world’s oldest dictatorships have benefited from western sanctions.
Moscow is neither small nor weak. Another observer, the Royal United Services Institute’s Russia expert Richard Connolly, has charted Putin’s response to the sanctions imposed on him since his 2014 seizure of Crimea and Donbas. Their objective was to change Russia’s course in those regions and deter further aggression. Their failure could hardly be more glaring. Apologists excuse this as due to the embargos being too weak. The present ones, perhaps the toughest ever imposed on a major world power, may not be working yet, but will apparently work in time. They are said to be starving Russia of microchips and drone spares. They will soon have Putin begging for peace.
If Putin begs, it will be on the battlefield. At home, Connolly illustrates how Russia is “slowly adjusting to its new circumstances”. Sanctions have promoted trade with China, Iran and India. They have benefited “insiders connected to Putin and the ruling entourage, making huge profits from import substitution”. McDonald’s locations across the country have been replaced by a Russian-owned chain called Vkusno & tochka (“Tasty and that’s it”). Of course the economy is weaker, but Putin is, if anything, stronger while sanctions are cohering a new economic realm across Asia, embracing an ever enhanced role for China. Was this forecast?
Meanwhile, the west and its peoples have been plunged into recession. Leadership has been shaken and insecurity spread in Britain, France, Italy and the US. Gas-starved Germany and Hungary are close to dancing to Putin’s tune. Living costs are escalating everywhere. Yet still no one dares question sanctions. It is sacrilege to admit their failure or conceive retreat. The west has been enticed into the timeless irony of aggression. Eventually its most conspicuous victim is the aggressor. Perhaps, after all, we should stick to war.
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Vladislav Ugolny writes: Russian artillery has been actively burying Ukrainian troops for several days and nights straight—an incredibly pleasant sounds after all that happened [at the hands of the Ukrainians] in June with Donetsk and other cities.
A good old-fashioned combined arms operation is taking place in Donbass. The main forces of the First Corps (DNR) are working over the Ukrainian positions from Maryinka to Novobakhmutovka, slowly advancing through the Ukrainian defensive line.
The main units of the Second Corps (LNR) + units from Gorlovka + Wagner PMC units are moving west from Golmovsky to Seversk. They are breaking through the penultimate line of defence in front of Slavyansk. The UAF have built up a lot of fortifications, and the terrain is heavily urbanized.
In both cases there are Russian reinforcements and the air force.
The problem (for Ukrainians) is that although this is the culmination of the "Battle for Donbass", it is only a constraining blow. The main units of the Russian army are not currently involved in the in the Donbass operation. The Russian army is currently engaged in active combat in the Nikolaev direction - defensive combat, repulsing any attempts by the Ukrainians to attack. Using comparatively a smaller force to the would-be attackers.
The Russian reserve forces (those who rested after the liberation of the LNR, for example) are still in reserve, making the Ukranazis nervous. Things are going badly for the Ukrainians: Just as they had grouped up on the right bank of the Dnepr river to attack the Kakhovka hydropower plant and Kherson, they received an offensive in the Donbass. Now it is possible to attack, but the Russians may strike in the third direction.
And if they don't proceed with an attack, the Ukrainian troops deployed for the offensive will start dying under missile attacks and decompose in all sorts of ways. Pull back? The idea is good, but then the resources spent on preparations—time in the first place—goes to waste.
That’s the kind of RIPki we are having.
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@Bear007 writes: Ukrainian sources say that Russia is preparing for an offensive in the Kharkov and Kherson theatres of the conflict. In particular, it is alleged that as many as six BTGs, mostly consisting of airborne troops, have been moved from Mariupol to Novaya Kakhovka in the last week.
The 106th Tula Airborne Division, whose officers have already arrived for reconnaissance, is said to be pulling in pontoon crossings as well. There are now 14-15 airborne assault troops’ BTGs with a total strength of up to 8,500 people concentrated in the South Buzh direction, and it is planned to increase their number.
In addition, heavy equipment is being stockpiled in the Belgorod region, waiting for its time, which will most likely come in the fall. Although full-scale offensive operations by the Russian Armed Forces are still out of the question until the end of the battle for Donbass, the concentrations of personnel and equipment are possibly intended to preempt a potential counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army, which so far has not moved beyond being a figment of Ukrainian media’s imagination.
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