Daily Report from the Ukraine Field for 2023-02-27
News, Telegram, and Twitter Articles
U.S. has a Javelin Missile problem because of Ukraine
🇧🇾🇷🇺🇺🇦 North Ukrainian direction
situation as of 11.00 February 27, 2023
🔻In the Kharkiv region, engineering and sapper units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are installing guided mines in settlements bordering Russia.
The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine believes that the offensive of the RF Armed Forces on Kharkov is being postponed. Therefore, the 124th, 129th and 209th battalions of the 113th troop battalion, operating north of Kharkov and in Bakhmut, are being transferred to Konotop to reinforce the group in the Sumy region.
▪️In Oleksandrivka and Korotych, from February 27 to March 8, training camps for the command staff of the 3rd detachment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are held, and in Volchansk, mobilization continues to resupply formations.
🔻In the Sumy region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are still expecting a Russian offensive. Guided mines have been installed in the area of the settlements of Porozok, Slavgorod and Mezenovka, the bridges have been prepared for blowing up.
▪️At the training grounds in Akhtyrka, Popovka and Tarasovka, the 57th howitzer division of the 45th division of the strategic reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is undergoing combat coordination. Artillerymen are currently training advanced gunners with copters transmitting video images using Starlink terminals.
▪️In the border areas in Seredina-Buda, Kucherovka, Pavlovka and Druzhba, there are five sabotage groups of Ukrainian special operations forces that track the movements of Russian troops.
🔻In the Kyiv region, the formation of the 5th separate assault brigade on the basis of the 5th Special Forces Assault Regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been completed, with Colonel Alexander Yakovenko appointed as its commander.
🔻 Two battalions of the brigade being formed are expected to arrive at the 233 training ground in Malaya Lyubasha in the Rivne region. Now the mobilized are undergoing a medical examination in Khmelnitsky.
🔻In Podolsk in the Odessa region, the commanders of units of the new 21 mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine talk about problems in recruiting the formation due to a lack of property and the recruitment of partially fit citizens.
#Belarus #digest #map #Kiev #Russia #Ukraine #Kharkov
Bulgarian Factories and Secret Task Forces: How the West Hunts for Soviet Arms — NYT
For the residents of Kostenets, a dying mountain town in western Bulgaria, it’s a welcome opportunity despite the risk of death. It means more jobs at the Terem ammunition plant on the outskirts of town.
The factory stopped making the 122-millimeter shells in 1988 as the Cold War came to a close. But soon the assembly lines will be running again. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has turned Soviet-era arms and ammunition into critically important matériel as Western nations seek to supply Ukraine with the munitions it needs to foil Moscow’s assault.
'But one year into the war, despite an influx of sophisticated Western arms, the Ukrainian military still relies primarily on weapons that fire Soviet-standard munitions. The United States and its NATO allies don’t produce those munitions, and the few countries outside Russia that do are mostly in the former Soviet orbit.
That has Western countries scrambling to find alternative sources, pouring millions of dollars into workarounds that keep the transactions quiet and avoid political fallout and Russian retaliation. And that brings them to some of the more remote areas of Eastern Europe, like Kostenets, and the small town of Sopot, roughly 50 miles to the northeast, which is home to another state-run arms factory.
Representatives from the U.S. embassy quietly attended the ribbon-cutting last month for the new production line in Kostenets, which took place outside the plant, a rundown low-slung building (https://terem.bg/en/pages-168-ministarat-na-otbranata-dimitar-stoianov-otkri-novo-proizvodstvo-v-terem-car-samuil-) in a corner of the town. With the new jobs it’s adding, the plant could become one of Kostenets’s biggest employers.
Bulgaria’s projected arms exports last year soared, exceeding $3 billion, around five times the sales abroad in 2019, according to government estimates from data gathered in October.
But it is hardly the only country quietly contributing to Ukraine’s war effort. Luxembourg is supplying Ukraine (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/17/world/europe/luxembourg-weapons-ukraine-nato.html) with arms that originate in the Czech Republic. Brokers with cash from the United States are scouring factories in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Romania for shells. And Britain has formed a secret task force to arm Ukraine, according to a document The New York Times obtained and officials familiar with the task force’s work.
The importance of such sources is growing as Ukraine burns through ammunition at an unsustainable rate — one that Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO secretary general, said last week was “many times higher than our current rate of production.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/23/world/europe/ukraine-weapons-ammunition-bulgaria.html
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BMA & Slavyangrad joint opinion piece about the situation in Transnistria
Introduction
Hello friends.
BMA (https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/bma-and-slavyangrad-joint-opinion) wrote a joint text with the Slavyangrad @Slavyangrad Telegram channel.
It’ll be about the situation around Transnistria.
Basics
First of all, this is NOT an analysis, but only an opinion piece.
So, it is far less objective or well researched, then my other pieces.
And it will be shorter as well.
Former developments
During the current war, we already had such a “crisis” that we are facing now. The Ukrainian army was preparing for an attack on Transnistria back in April/Mai 2022. When everyone was panicking how Russia should/could react, I have been writing, that nothing will happen. I was suggesting that it is a big diversion exercise, since Ukraine was on the backfoot in Donbass and needed to buy time for Western support. It turned out to be correct. Nothing happened.
Possible Ukrainian goals
So, what could be the current Ukrainian goals, by threatening Transnistria? I will point out some quick and not researched thoughts:
Ukraine is again on its backfoot in Donbass. As I lined out in my previous articles, I assume, that the collapse is only a matter of a few months. The only way to change the course, by prolonging the war and increasing the price for Russia (Western considerations) is to divert and trigger a reaction by Russia, which is not favourable to Russia.
Russia could be forced to divert resources, command and control and reconnaissance assets to the Transnistrian direction.
Russia would need to prepare men and material for an intervention, just in case. Even you know, that it is a pinning operation, like the Russians are pinning the Ukrainians along the Belorussian
you need to divert resources. Just in case.
It could be a consideration, that Russia fastens up its operations in Donbass, to divert Ukrainian resources back to the Donbass, away from Transnistria. This in turn would further bleed Russia, since it would need to attack well prepared positions, instead of grinding them down by artillery.
Russia would need to commit strategic assets and elite quick reactions forces to Transnistria to guard its citizens and troops there. During the deployment huge casualties are to be expected. Since, these would need to be deployed by air. Maybe by HALO paradrops. Moreover, there is the risk, that such assets (yes people) could be taken prisoner.
You are missing the capturing of the strategic ammunition depot in Cobasna? Rightfully so. It would mean a strategic advantage for Ukraine. So, it will never fall in their hand. It would be blown up in advance, even though it means huge losses for everyone involved, since the explosion could be compared to a tactical nuke. I assume, that the West came to the same conclusion, so the purpose of the current build-up is not the ammunition depot, but diversion.
Russian forces in Transnistria
In Transnistria Russia has a peacekeeping force. And it is doing exactly that. Keeping the peace. By its presence. Similar to the American “tripwire” or “chicken” concept. It also basically defends the ammunition depot. But it should not fight large scale ground combat. Moreover, there is the potential for mobilization of the Transnistrian people, of which many are Russian citizens as well.
So, let’s put a realistic combat worthy human potential, including the regular Russian peacekeeping forces there on 10,000 men. It is neither a small nor a huge force. But considering the defensive nature, it certainly could slow down any Ukrainian offensive, for a time needed, to activate the necessary contingency plans.
Continue (https://t.me/Slavyangrad/35355)....
Let’s assume that there are really 10,000 armed Russian troops ready for defence. Reduce 2,000 for rear support activities. Then you have approximately some 40 troops for each kilometer of the line of contact between Ukraine and Transnistria. That is not very good. Since the attacker has the advantage of choosing where to attack and concentrate its offensive. Hence, intelligence is everything. As I stated before, it would mean, that Russia needs to divert its intelligence resources away from the actual combat to track, where Ukraine POTENTIALLY could attack.
I see two possible scenarios for this pinning operation.
1. Putting together two real brigades with well trained and equipped troops, that are assigned for offensive operations in Donbass. To make the threat look more credible.
2. Get together some territorial defence units and bring them to the Transnistrian border. This is actually more likely. Since I can’t see any escalation measures by Russia. Such troops would have a real hard time, breaking the Russian defences in Transnistria.
Ukraine can only attack Transnistria if Moldova greenlights it. If Moldova greenlights it, it is a party of the conflict. From Russia’s point of view and from Russia’s international partners, as well. Guess who depends on Russia economically? Guess who has a huge percentage of pro-Russian citizens? Moldova. I don’t see a scenario where Moldova would greenlight that attack, and without Ukraine won’t do it. It would trigger serious consequences within the European allies. I’m sure, Germany wouldn’t want to see such developments as well as Germany wouldn’t want to see Poland enlarging its territory by annexing parts of Ukraine.
Hence, again, there is almost no way, that such an attack could really take place. The only thing that would be worth it, would be the access to the Russian ammunition depot in Cobasna. Since it is clear that it would be blown up, the only reasonable reason left, is the diversion.
Currently, we see almost NO serious reactions by Russia. At least overtly. I don’t know what is going on covertly. Yes, some hard political statements, but no real overt preparations.
I assume, that the Transnistrian territory has been well prepared for such an eventuality before the start of the SMO. It should be clear enough, that after starting the SMO, Transnistria would be a hotspot.
To be clear, the Speznas has been used in this war for purposes, that are not their real purpose. Fighting battles that are designed for the regular army. Especially before the mobilization, because of men shortage. What I described above is ONE of their real purposes. But it is such a drastic measure, with a huge loss potential, that I simply can’t imagine such a thing happening. It would have such implications, that I don’t even want to write down here.
Conclusion
Unrealistic!
— Aleks
Black Mountain Analysis (https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/bma-and-slavyangrad-joint-opinion)
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Use of UR-77 in Kremennaya area
America needs to realize how transparent it is. Especially to China!
https://bruceohara.substack.com/p/the-watchers