The following is is from Moon of Alabama (MoA). MoA is an excellent site for the conflict. It is reposted here for those who can not reach it. If you can reach it, please go there for more!
Ukraine - What Explains The Recent Russian Retreats?
Over the last months Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive against Russian positions in the Kharkov region. The attack against thin Russian forces was quite successful but has cost the Ukrainian army several thousand men and irreplaceable hardware. That does not seem to matter for Kiev.
Several reasons for the success were given. The Russian forces in the area were even smaller than people had thought and the Ukraine was willing to push every reserve it had through the Russian defense lines. The Russian artillery was equally thin and could not use enough area weapons like multiple rocket launcher systems to stop the storming Ukrainian forces.
In consequence the Ukraine took a quite large share of land. Most st of these was thinly inhabited rural areas. Even the city of Lyman which the Russian gave up on had less than 30,000 pre-war inhabitants.
But another Ukrainian counteroffensive lets me doubt the explanations given for the area losses near Kharkov.
In the Kherson-Nikopol region the Ukrainians made several attempts to push the Russian forces from the land north of the Dnieper river. All had failed with large losses for the Ukrainian side. But over the last week the Ukrainians tried a new attack along the river and breached through the Russian frontline.
The Russian troops retreated in good order and the Ukrainians pushed further.
Neither the explanation of too few men, nor the explanation of too few MLRS systems or ammunition which may explain the Kharkov success hold up for the Kherson region.
During the summer Russian troops were pulled from the Kharkov region and send to the south to defend the Kherson regions. There are lots of Russian units in the area including many artillery systems. And while the Ukrainians have damaged some bridges that cross the Dnieper the Russian forces have enough ferry equipment to keep up the supplies. Most of the previous Ukrainian attacks were defeated rather easily.
I thus find it hard to explain the current situation.
My current 'feel' is that the Russian forces have orders from high above to conserve forces and to let go of land and retreat when the pressure becomes big enough and severe Russian casualty numbers are likely.
Why were such orders given? What are the plans behind them?
I don't really know.But I am sure will find out when Russia opens the new phase of the war.
The weather has become quite bad in Ukraine with rain making the passing over fields with tanks etc nearly impossible. That is why the attack in the south was pushed along a road. In two month the ground in Ukraine will likely be frozen.
The Russian military leadership seems to believe that the Ukrainian operations will cease soon and that the mobilized reinforcements that are starting to come online will be able to decisively change the picture as soon as the winter comes.
Another potential reason behind the order to conserve forces and to not hold onto territory at any price may be political. The Russian public was starting to get a bit tired of the war but after the losses in the Kharkov region the TV pundits pushed for winning the war. That allowed Russia's president to launch the mobilization of reservists. The further losses since may be designed to allow for more political measures.
The law that will allow for the four regions to return to Russia after a hundred years of being part of Ukraine today passed the upper house of Russia's parliament:
According to the documents, the DPR and the LPR will retain their status as republics after joining Russia and Russian will be their official language. The Kherson and Zaporozhye regions will also join Russia as constituent entities and will continue to be called "regions." The borders of the republics and regions will be the same as those that "existed on the day of their creation and accession into Russia." International accords specify that their borders with other countries will be regarded as Russia’s state borders. At the same time, under the constitutional laws, the DPR and the LPR are joining Russia under the 2014 borders enshrined in their constitutions.
With the laws enacted the Special Military Operation will become a war to prevent attacks on Russian grounds and to retake the parts of Russia that are currently under Ukrainian occupation.
I expect that the gloves which Russia was still wearing during recent operations will come off.
⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (October 4, 2022)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
💥 Russian Aerospace Forces have neutralised the headquarters of Eastern Air Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) at south-western suburb of Dnepropetrovsk.
💥 Missile attacks have been launched at the concentration areas of the units from 14th and 92nd mechanised brigades of the AFU near Dvurechnaya, Petropavlovka and Kupyansk (Kharkov region) at Kupyansk direction.
◽️ The attacks have resulted in the elimination of up to 100 servicemen, including foreign mercenaries and 16 units of military equipment.
💥 Massive fire attack has been launched at the units from 66th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU and 2 provisional bases of nationalist groups near Torskoye at Krasny Liman direction.
◽️ The attack has resulted in the elimination of over 120 nationalists and 14 units of armoured equipment.
💥 Missile attack launched at the manpower and equipment of 54th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Grigorovka at Lisichansk direction has resulted in the elimination of up to 90 servicemen, 3 tanks and 6 armoured vehicles.
💥 Missile attacks have been launched at a munitions depot of 65th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Zaporozhye, as well as the manufacturing workshops for aircraft reparation at Motor Sich plant.
◽️ The attacks have resulted in the elimination of over 15 tonnes of ordnance, including projectiles for U.S.-manufactured HIMARS multiple launch rocket system, as well as 2 Ukrainian Mi-24 combat helicopters.
💥 Attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces at the units from 24th Mechanised, 17th Tank and 128 Mountain Assault brigades of the AFU deployed near Belaya Krinitsa, Arkhangelskoye, Lyubimovka and Zolotaya Balka have resulted in the elimination of 9 tanks, 12 infantry combat vehicles, 20 motor vehicles and up to 250 servicemen.
💥 Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised 5 AFU command posts near Kharkov, Kramatorsk (Donetsk People's Republic), Nikopol (Dnepropetrovsk region), Zelyony Gai (Kherson region) and Bereznegovatoye (Nikolayev region), as well as 43 artillery units, 157 manpower and military equipment concentration areas.
◽️ 5 missile, artillery armament and munitions depots have been destroyed near Torskoye, Malinovka, Zhelannoye (Donetsk People's Republic), Dimitrovo (Zaporozhye region) and Shevchenkovo (Nikolayev region).
◽️ 1 Buk-M1 air defence missile system has been destroyed near Chasov Yar (Donetsk People's Republic).
◽️ 1 radar for S-300 air defence missile has been destroyed near Aleksandrovka (Dnepropetrovsk region).
💥 Fighter aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces has shot down 1 Ukrainian Su-25 near Toretsky (Donetsk People's Republic) and 1 Su-24 of Ukrainian Air Force near Belaya Krinitsa (Kherson region).
💥 Air defence facilities have destroyed 8 unmanned aerial vehicles near Nikolayevka (Kharkov region), Urozhaynoye, Stepnoye, Zaporozhskoye (Donetsk People's Republic), Pyatikhatki, Aleksandrovka, Kakhovka and Koshara (Kherson region).
◽️ 2 Tochka-U ballistic missiles have been shot down near Rovenki (Lugansk People's Republic).
◽️ Moreover, 9 projectiles launched by HIMARS and Olkha MRLS have been destroyed in air near Novaya Kakhovka and Chernobayevka (Kherson region).
📊 In total, 312 airplanes and 157 helicopters, 2,145 unmanned aerial vehicles, 379 air defence missile systems, 5,336 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 860 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 3,445 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 6,226 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed during the special military operation.
#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #report
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Analysis of the Russian withdrawal in the northeastern part of the Kherson Oblast of the Russian Federation: The Russian army is retreating in the south to create a solid front line instead of a broken front dominated by focal engagements.
In the north of the Kherson region, our troops are urgently reformatting the front line. Due to the enemy's large numerical superiority, the Russian Armed Forces are creating a new defensive line in a narrower area, eliminating the threat of our units falling into a cauldron after a breakthrough by the AFU in the direction of Berislav.
Igor Strelkov writes:
▪️"Avoiding an outlined encirclement, the Russian Armed Forces have withdrawn along the entire front of the Ingulets River to the east of the enemy's previously captured bridgehead on the said river.
▪️ The key settlement of Davydov Brod (for which fierce fighting took place for two months) and a number of other major villages in its vicinity were left behind.
▪️The retreat continues. Apparently, the purpose of the command of our group is to reduce the front line to at least a continuous (rather than focal) front line covering Beryslav and the Novo-Kakhovsk Dam."
▪️On the other side of the Dnepr river's left bank bridgehead, during the enemy's breakthrough along the Dnieper, our troops left Dudchany and held the defence line along the Mylovoye-Borozenskoye line.
▪️Here from the right bank of the Dnieper our artillery will also be able to support the defending troops.
▪️But we urgently need reinforcements, primarily with heavy equipment.
▪️Tanks, IFVs, and other equipment are on their way to Crimea, while our mobilised units are being prepared at the training grounds. The front must be held before they can be inserted into the conflict zone.
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Report on the current situation in Svatovo
from @Cmiye (BlueBeard):
About 70 percent of the population has left the town. There is no panic, but the remaining people are very tense. They categorically refuse to talk on camera and are openly afraid to show their faces because of the uncertainty of tomorrow. But, judging by their accounts, the locals have decided not to ignore the evacuation recommendations.
The road to Starobelsk is under our control and absolutely safe. We also control the road to Kremenna, but there is still a danger of shelling, and the military did not recommend driving on it using non-armoured vehicles.
All is quiet as far as the shelling of the city is concerned, there is no shelling yet, not even the distant sounds of artillery fire can be heard.
I managed to communicate with soldiers from the 201st base who were transferred to the conflict zone from Tajikistan. They recently withdrew from Borovskoye. According to them, the enemy is now 20 km away from Svatovo. At the moment, withdrawn and incoming forces, including those called up for mobilization, are gathering in the Kremenna-Starobelsk-Svatovo triangle.
According to their commanders, in the next few days, they will start to strike with large caliber artillery at the accumulations of Ukrainian troops and then our offensive will follow.
I emphasize in red that this information was reported by the fighters and it is difficult to guarantee the accuracy of the information. The fighters describe the withdrawal as tactical in principle.
I will post the video interview with the fighter a little later, but unfortunately, the sound did not turn as well as it could have.
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Operational SitRep from the Lisichansk-Kremennaya-Svatovo triangle from Na Marshe Z:
The AFU command will not storm Kremennaya and Svatovo. The plan appears to be changing.
It is likely that an attempt by the Ukrainian army to break through to the Lisichansk-Severodonetsk agglomeration will proceed through the front along the Belogorovka-Spornoye line.
This is currently the only "gap" where it is possible to break through, taking into account the Ukrainian reserves in this direction.
It also appears that the AFU will transfer combat-ready remnants from the Liman-Yampol line to this operational area.
On-site reconnaissance reports that equipment is being moved from Liman not closer to the "zero" line, i.e. to Kremennaya, but further south, towards Yampol-Seversk.
They will not move against the Yakovlevka-Belogorvka-Berestovoye line—because there the 4th and 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the LPR are quite strong, plus not too far away, in the settlement of Victorovka, we (Wagner PMC) are already present.
It only remains for them to look for a joint between units in the direction of Topolevka-Maloryazantsevo-Lisichansk. I hope the General Staff has already calculated the operational manoeuvre for this case.
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John Mark Dougan yesterday about the northstream pipeline
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1c0jvJWqf10
"I Received a Whistleblower Letter about Military Exercises near Nordstream... It said this!"
Interesting!