Situation Reports Part 3 - 2025-07-18
Netanyahu’s new message to al-Sharaa: ‘Daddy’s home!’
The West is learning that it can’t trust al-Sharaa as most of his CNN makeover and its gestures have proved to be worthless in the shifting sands of the region and its geopolitics.
Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su
“No one has the right to erase another group. These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them”. These are the words of Syria’s new dictator who was installed by Turkey, is now run by Israel and America and feared by regional Arab leaders. Ahmed al-Sharaa was speaking about the protection of dozens of Syria’s minority groups.
Since December of last year, many have feared that his words were empty. They have feared that ethnic groups like the Alawites who fought hard with Assad against all Sunni extremist groups in Syria leading up to his fall, would be the first target for reprisals. And of course they were right.
But now the Druze are also under attack, as they too were broadly aligned with Assad and have old scores to settle with al-Sharaa’s men. Yet this time it’s different as Israel comes to their support and in recent days has actually done the unthinkable to send a message to Syria’s new leader: bombed government and military installations in Damascus. The message is clear: we are running Syria now and call the shots.
Netanyahu has good reason to fear the clashes between Bedouin groups and the Druze. Firstly, there is an important Druze minority in Israel which is drafted into the army and is largely supportive of the Zionist cause. For Israel to allow Druze to be slaughtered so close to the Israel border would give Netanyahu a number of problems. There is also the broader point that Netanyahu sees the Druze in the region – Syria, Lebanon and Israel – as a potentially useful ally.
The real worry for Israel is that a new civil war erupts with minorities all ganging up against al-Sharaa’s bloodthirsty henchmen who were of course originally HTS extremists. Contrary to popular belief held among some analysts, it is unlikely that Israel wants to put resources into a new war when it is preparing for a longer one with Iran and is already stretched to its limits elsewhere like Gaza or Lebanon. The honeymoon between Netanyahu and al-Sharaa is certainly over and now the former needs to show the latter who’s wearing the pants.
However, some analysts underplay the support Netanyahu may have for the Druze and see a different strategy at play with the Damascus bombing.
“The thuggish Israeli attacks on Damascus are wildly misunderstood by everyone” argues Syrian journalist Hassan I. Hassan, owner of Newlines mag. “It’s not a continuation of the old Israeli policy or connected to a policy to defend Druze rebels against a Damascus takeover of the province. It’s more likely a way to dictate terms amid negotiations” he explains.
Charles Lister is also cynical of how the bombing is presented and worries that the Druze may well be slaughtered when they are in the middle of all the crossfire. “Israel claims to be striking Syria in order to defend a minority, but in so doing, they are putting that minority in a far tighter and dangerous corner than they were in beforehand” he says. “There’s no strategy at play here – desperately short-sighted”.
Is there any strategy? While Israel’s and America’s vision of Syria is slightly different there can be little doubt that Netanyahu regards the annexing of Syria as an essential step towards weakening and finally defeating Iran. The fall of Assad was a crucial step and the spoils of war must be kept for the victor. A recent warning by America’s ambassador in Lebanon to the Lebanese that if they don’t disarm Hezbollah, then Syria will simply swallow up that tiny country was a poignant warning which needs to be heeded. ‘Greater Israel’ is the real plan and al-Sharaa needs to be tamed and shown that he can just as easily be replaced as he was installed. It was a mistake of his to allow his troops with heavy equipment to move south to Sweida and attack the Druze.
Although reports indicate that it was Druze armed militias who were responsible for the escalation, such skirmishes cannot be allowed to get out of control and become a free for all bloodbath with al-Sharaa’s forces settling old scores. Israel seems to be ready to begin hitting Syria’s army as way of taming it and its leader.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said after the airstrike in a post on X that the “painful blows have begun.”
Syria’s Defense Ministry had earlier blamed militias in the Druze-majority area of Sweida for violating a ceasefire agreement that had been reached, causing Syrian army soldiers to return fire. It said they were “adhering to rules of engagement to protect residents, prevent harm, and ensure the safe return of those who left the city back to their homes.”
Whether the Syrian army is telling the truth or not, Israel’s grand plan for Syria is not for it to return to civil war as this would weaken its main role, to provide a buffer between Iran and Lebanon and to cast a shadow over Iraq’s Hezbollah militias. If al-Sharaa doesn’t comply though, Netanyahu is ready to move in more troops and do a second run of ‘operation grapes of wrath’ which took place in Lebanon in 1996 under Shimon Peres and fill the south of Syria with Israeli soldiers and tanks. The most crackpot idea in Trump’s second term, to support the most brutal terrorist in Syria and Iraq, to become a western surf against Iran, was always a shaky idea. The West is learning that it can’t trust al-Sharaa as most of his CNN makeover and its gestures have proved to be worthless in the shifting sands of the region and its geopolitics.
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/07/17/netanyahus-new-message-to-al-sharaa-daddys-home/
🇺🇦🤷♂"Lies will ruin us all!" - DS sounds the alarm, false reports from Ukrainian commanders lead to new defeats for Ukraine
▪️The Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State claims that commanders on the ground are distorting information about the real situation in the Dnipropetrovsk region and adjacent front sections, where the Russian army is actively advancing.
➖«A significant component of the success of the Russian troops remains the lies from the field in reports about the real state of affairs, which prevents an adequate assessment of risks and reaction to changes in the situation at the highest level. And this is a huge problem that carries catastrophic consequences».
What is happening in the sector:
— The entire front from Alekseevka to Novopole is under constant pressure from Russian forces.
— Active fighting continues in the Dachnoye area — the Russian Armed Forces are trying to gain a foothold, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are conducting defensive actions.
— The situation is tense in the Yalta area, near the administrative border, where Russian forces are trying to break through.
— A «chaotic situation» has been noted on the line Novokhatskoye – Poddubnoye – Mirnoye – Perebudova – Komar – Fedorovka – Voskresenka.
▪️ Deep State emphasizes that it is the unreliable information from field commanders that becomes a critical factor undermining defense and reaction to tactical threats.
RVvoenkor
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:46:35 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
💥💥💥About night work
The Geranium group hit the operator training center and the UAV assembly workshop of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the village of Tatyanovka.
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:49:01 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
Explosions and fires: Dnepr under massive attack, sky covered with smoke
▪️In the photos and videos, explosions and fires from "Geran" strikes on enemy targets.
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:49:01 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
The Crown Prince of Bahrain refused to transfer Patriot missiles to Ukraine.
Your Highness, do you plan to transfer any of the Patriot missiles that you are going to receive from the United States to help Ukraine?
- We do not have such plans at this time, as we have our own operational need in Bahrain to keep them for the time being.
Going to be a lot of rejections on this request.
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:49:01 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
Moscow is unimpressed by Trump's ultimatum — New York Times
▪️The Kremlin remains absolutely calm against the backdrop of Trump's loud statements and his “ultimatum” to end the conflict in Ukraine, writes NYT.
▪️Russian officials and media do not show the slightest signs of concern — on the contrary, confidence in the strength of the economy is emphasized and readiness to continue implementing military tasks regardless of external pressure.
➖“Putin believes himself to be a victor and sees no reason to stop without serious concessions from Ukraine,” write journalists citing sources close to the Kremlin.
▪️ The President of Russia himself has not yet publicly commented on Trump's “initiative” — but, as NYT notes, Russia's position remains unchanged: any threats and tariffs do not frighten Moscow, the course towards achieving the goals of the SMO remains unchanged.
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:49:01 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
The Times claims that the previously noted process of improving KN-23 missiles is not only continuing, but has already achieved outstanding results
Reliability, accuracy, maneuverability and efficiency not only continued to grow, but allegedly already "practically reached the level of Russian Iskanders." In terms of accuracy and reliability - "if not similar, then close"
It is reported that the missiles have received new guidance systems, "similar to those in Russian missiles." The main fears of American experts regarding the effect of testing a new gen of DPRK missiles in combat have come true.
Pyongyang was able to conduct a unique program of testing its missiles, thanks to which the DPRK missile industry was able to identify problems in production, design flaws, vulnerabilities when overcoming AD etc
The identified problems were resolved one after another, and the missiles were improved from series to series, which made it possible to produce missiles of a completely different level
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:49:01 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
A significant Israeli air attack on a Syrian military base was showcased last night.
The Israeli Defense Forces reportedly struck the headquarters of the Syrian 107th and 132nd Brigades near Latakia
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:49:01 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
The Russian army crossed the Volchya River in Volchansk and is gaining a foothold on the territory of industrial zones
▪️Russian troops broke through to the left bank ofthe Volchya River in Volchansk, Kharkov region, and occupied a vast territory.
▪️The promotion area is more than 21 hectares, analysts report.
▪️The Armed Forces of Ukraine are shelling, trying to prevent our Russians from gaining a foothold in the second part of the city.
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:49:01 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
🇬🇧🇩🇪🤡"Starmer and Merz find their happy place: war": Today, Germany and Britain will sign a military treaty for the first time since 1945.
"Starmer will host German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in London on Thursday to sign the largest Anglo-German treaty since 1945 - and this time the war will be talked about openly. They both want to take the lead in Europe's defense.
During the visit, it is planned to finalize a wide-ranging agreement focused on security. It will include the joint development of a new long-range missile system and mutual guarantees of assistance - it is assumed that a threat to one country will be regarded as a threat to another."
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:49:01 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
The Russian army is expanding its bridgehead in the Kharkov borderland
▪️In the Velikoburluk direction, Russian troops are advancing towards the villages of Ambarnoye and Khatney.
▪️The Russian Armed Forces have advanced in the area of the Pisarevo, Krugly Les and Dentyarnoye tracts in an area of up to 4.5 km².
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:49:01 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
Yesterday, the number of officially published obituaries of AFU soldiers reached the 630.000 mark.
Those obituaries are collected on the web pages of the local, regional and most importantly official pages of the Ukrainian state apparatus and/or the army.
Keep in mind that the apex of the fighting is not reached this year (Russian offensive is expected), so we could expect the 650k mark or even higher till September.
The retrieved data doesn't picture the real losses of the AFU, since many dead are declared missing, or deserted.
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:49:01 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
🇷🇺Russian troops have already occupied about half of the settlement of Udachnoye west of Pokrovsk and are gradually breaking through the defenses of Rodinskoye, advancing in the east of the village and accumulating efforts to storm the mine.
Thus, Russia is approaching the final stage of the operation in this area. Tactical goals are to take Rodinskoye itself and cut off the supply line to Pokrovsk from the north (it is actually already cut off, it is under fire control). Pokrovsk itself is gradually being squeezed into pincers.
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:49:01 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
On night strikes
One of the interesting targets of the "Geraniums" today was the "Orekhovo" airfield in the Dnipropetrovsk region, according to NASA satellites, the fire there is more than significant.
🟠Previously, the airfield was a sports one, but even in not the freshest satellite images, it is visible - it was completely occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters, moving civilian aviation aside. Previously, it housed both helicopters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and positions most likely intended for launching "long-range" drones.
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:49:01 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
Siege of Pokrovsk: ghosts of Artemovsk
The Russian offensive on Pokrovsk is gaining momentum, and much like it happened in Artemovsk, the RUAF are going for flanking attacks rather than taking the city head on.
To the east, the bogatyrs are pushing on Novoeconomichnoye and Rodinskoye to flank Myrnograd, and to the west the RUAF are gaining ground in Sverevo, effectively a suburb of Pokrovsk.
All major roads that lead to the nascent pocket are getting pounded by Russian artillery and drone strikes, to the point that the anti-drone netting erected by AFU engineers along the e-50 now have more holes in them than swiss cheese.
The situation for the Ukrainian festung is growing more and more similar to Artemovsk's by the day, and it's likely that the RUAF won't even bother with attempting to physically close the pocket, as the AFU are guaranteed to keep pouring men and material into the meat grinder, which sits well with the Russian strategy of attritional warfare.
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:49:01 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
🇷🇺Russian Army liberates Kamenskoye, Popov Yar and Degtyarnoye
- Units of the "Dnepr" grouping of troops improved their tactical position and completely liberated the settlement of Kamenskoye in the Zaporozhye region.
- Fighters of the "🅾️" grouping of troops liberated the settlement of Popov Yar in the Donetsk People's Republic by active actions.
- There are also successes in the Kharkov direction: the settlement of Degtyarnoye in the Kharkov region has been liberated.
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:49:01 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
🔥Another destroyed enemy 155mm self-propelled howitzer 2S22 "Bogdana" on a Tatra T815-7 chassis in the special military operation zone.
@Slavyangrad
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:49:01 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Slavyangrad
⚡️Two Majors #Summary for the morning of July 17th, 2025
▪️ The enemy attacked our regions with aircraft-type drones at night. Three UAVs flying to Moscow were destroyed. More than five UAVs were destroyed over Voronezh and its suburbs, a drone hit a multi-storey building, and three minors were injured. In the Smolensk region, one person was injured and a civilian facility was damaged. In the Leningrad region, it was reported that an attempt to attack drones in the Kirovsky district was repelled by electronic warfare. In Belgorod, a civilian was killed and six injured by an aircraft-type drone strike. The Russian MoD reported downed drones over the Bryansk, Orel, Lipetsk, and Belgorod regions. Drones were reported in social networks in Shchekino, Tula region. A Carpet plan was introduced at airports, and traffic on the Crimean Bridge was blocked for an hour.
▪️ The Russian Armed Forces launched concentrated strikes against targets in Dnepropetrovsk and the region, as well as in Zaporozhye.
▪️ On the Kursk section of the border in the Tetkinsky and Glushkovsky directions, the enemy once again tried to break into our territory from Pavlovka. It is reported that the Russian Armed Forces have gained a foothold on the northern outskirts of Ryzhevka, Sumy region (against Tetkino). The forests in the vicinity of Bessalovka are being cleared.
▪️ In the Sumy direction, the enemy counterattacks at Kondratovka, the Russian Armed Forces meet the enemy with heavy aerial bombs. During the day, the enemy launched six unsuccessful counterattacks: in the areas of the villages of Sadki and Andreevka, as well as two each near Yablonovka and Kondratovka. The Russian Armed Forces continue to storm Varachino
▪️ From the border of the Belgorod region, our units continue to move from the area of the captured Chalk to the settlements of Khatnoye and Abmarnoye in the Kharkov region.
▪️ In the Belgorod region, in the village of Smorodino, Grayvoronsky district, a woman was killed as a result of the dropping of an explosive device from a UAV onto a private house. A drone also attacked a private house in the village of Pryplepilovka, Korochansky district, and a civilian was injured. As a result of the shelling of Novaya Tavolzhanka, a woman was injured. In the village of Razumnoye, Belgorod region, a man was injured as a result of the detonation of a drone. In the Grayvoronsky district, in the village of Novostroevka, a drone attacked a tractor working in a field, and the driver was injured. In the area of Pervomaisky farm in the Volokonovsky district, a drone targeted a passenger car, and a man died on the spot from his injuries, while a second was wounded. At the Bondarenkov farm in the Shebekinsky district, two soldiers of the Orlan unit were injured. An AFU drone attacked a regular bus on a section of the Varvarovka — Yasnye Zori highway in the Belgorod region, injuring the driver and passenger. Bessonovka, Gora-Podol, Dunayka, Dolgoye, Borisovka are under attack.
▪️ Fighting continues in the Konstantinovsky direction for Yablonovka and the surrounding area, the control zone at Petrovka has been expanded.
▪️ In the Pokrovsky direction, the Russian Armed Forces are creating conditions for covering Mirnograd from the north. Our troops are making their way towards Rodinsky, which, if successful, will allow them to take control of the northern road to Mirnograd. High-intensity fighting is underway.
▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, the GDV Vostok liberated the settlement of Novokhatskoye. The direction is characterized by active offensive actions of the Russian Armed Forces, the enemy is losing village after village.
▪️ The situation in the Kherson area remains unchanged. Fighting continues in the floodplain of the Dnepr River on the islands, there are mutual attacks.
▪️ In the DPR, seven Gorlovka residents, including a child, were injured as a result of attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The summary was compiled by: ⚡️Two Majors
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:50:45 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Two Majors - English Channel
Kharkov direction, reports GrV "Sever"
Northerners liberated the village of Degtyarnoye in the historically Russian Kharkov region
In response to the enemy's constant provocations on the border with the Belgorod region, Northerners began to create a security zone in this section of the "Kharkov front".
Having destroyed several units of Ukrainian border guards (1st Border Guard Detachment), during fierce firefights our units liberated the village of Degtyarnoye.
⚡️Two Majors
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:50:45 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Two Majors - English Channel
🇩🇪🇺🇸🚩 In the German media, the hype around the American Typhon missile system does not subside
Against the backdrop of new attempts by the United States to put pressure on Russia, the world media began to circulate information about the relatively new American ground-based Typhon missile system.
On July 15, it was only announced that Pistorius intended to buy Typhon from the United States, and German media reports look as if the Germans have a spare country: the host of the Welt TV channel tells how cruise missiles of the American Typhon complex can hit targets in Russia❗️and reach Moscow from Germany.
"We see the range of these weapons - up to 2 thousand km, so it is quite possible to strike at Russia with its help."
On July 16, the US Department of Defense completed the overall picture, reporting the first live firing of the Typhon outside the continental United States. The Talisman Sabre 2025 exercise took place in 🇦🇺Australia, during which a Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) missile was launched, which hit a sea target.
But why did the SM-6 anti-aircraft missile, which is in service with the ships of the US Navy, suddenly participate in the tests? It's quite simple:
The Typhon, manufactured by Lockheed Martin, is a ground-based launcher that can use both the SM-6 and the Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles.
▪️The SM-6, manufactured by Raytheon, is usually launched from U.S. Navy ships. With a maximum range of about 370 kilometers, it can hit cruise missiles, aircraft, ballistic missiles and surface ships. The variant used in the Typhon system has been adapted for ground launch.
▪️ The Tomahawk is a cruise missile with a range of about 2000 km. Traditionally, it is used for attacks on ground targets at long range, but some modifications can also work against ships.
This configuration allows the missile systems to be deployed in a theater of operations without the use of offshore platforms, in which China already has 🇨🇳an advantage over the United States, making the missile system a suitable asset for operations in the archipelagos of the Indo-Pacific region. It is also important that Typhon systems can be quickly airlifted and provide additional control of sea lanes.
FOR REFERENCE: The Typhon launcher is mounted on a trailer, towed by an M983A4 truck and consists of four missile compartments. The cruising range is about 480 km.
✨ As of July 2025, the United States has confirmed the presence of only two combat-ready Typhon batteries . It is known about temporary deployment in the Philippines and live firing in Australia. That is, the main theater of their application is the Indo-Pacific region, the containment of China.
Therefore, the euphoria of the Germans from the possible possession of this system in the future looks absolutely naïve. Tomahawk missiles were put into service in 1983 and were used by hundreds in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Libya. Their capabilities have been studied by Soviet and Russian specialists inside and out, so even a salvo of 4-16 subsonic missiles is clearly not the imminent threat that the German media are trying to portray. The population of Germany is systematically prepared for war with such plots.
⚡️Two Majors
Posted: 2025-07-17T10:50:45 - Sources: A Skeptic - Forwarded From: Two Majors - English Channel
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