Battlefield Update - 2023-04-29 (1)
The above is why our final map includes Dnieper as a border.
A Skeptic's Best Guess On Final Map (Updated)
Our old take: Our revised take:Thanks for reading A Skeptic! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Out initial Best Guess On Final Map could still happen, but is becoming unlikely. Our initial map leaned heavily on a political compromise where Ukraine conceded territory of majority Russian speakers. The assumption was that Ukraine w…
Less than a day later, the assault detachments of the Wagner PMC have achieved new significant successes in the western districts of the city:
▪️The military unit in the western districts of Bakhmut completely passed under the control of the musicians, for which there were fierce battles;
▪️there is a promotion of our attack aircraft along Pobeda and Levanevskogo streets;
▪️The orchestra knocked out the enemy from Polevaya street and took up a number of positions on Tchaikovsky street.
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From Karnauhov,
—
The attack of drones on Sevastopol was covered by NATO aircraft: Analysis of the Military Chronicle
on April 29 at 03:00, Mugin-5 Pro drones with explosives attacked the territory of an oil storage facility in Sevastopol. Due to the hit of one drone on a fuel tank in the area of the Manganari Brothers Street in the Cossack Bay microdistrict, a fire occurred on an area of 1 thousand square meters. m. A few hours before the attack, several NATO aircraft were a couple of hundred kilometers from the impact site.
Which planes coordinated the APU strike?
At about 18:00 on April 28, three NATO military aircraft appeared south of the coast of Crimea. According to the Military Chronicle, a Boeing-E3F traffic police belonging to the French Air Force was sent to this area for electronic reconnaissance. "Rafal". The cars were spotted by tracking devices in the same area where the American MQ-9 Reaper UAV crashed in mid-March. From the place where the planes violated the airspace closed to flights, to Sevastopol — about 250-300 km in a straight line. The approach of the main group to the Crimea in the area of the Bulgarian port of Constanta was covered by an Atlantic-2 aircraft of the French Navy.
What tasks did the NATO reconnaissance aircraft perform?
The electronic equipment of the Boeing-E3F SDA consists of the APY-2 radar, the AIL APX-103 IFF/TADIL-J (Tactical Digital Information Link-Joint) digital communication system, the APS-133 navigation radar and the electronic intelligence systems have fast A-NETS. This equipment allows detecting signals from air defense radars and any other military equipment with both previously known and unknown parameters at a distance of up to 400 km, thanks to which NATO forces can help the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the GUR of Ukraine in planning an attack on the necessary object. A few hours after the departure of NATO aircraft, a Mugin-5Pro drone strike was carried out on Sevastopol. These drones are capable of flying at low altitude and are a relatively inexpensive and simple means for conducting sabotage.
How was this attack built and what was the goal?
Most likely, the data on the composition and operating time of the air defense of the Russian Armed Forces in Crimea, collected during the departure, were transferred to the NATO unified information center and were later sent to Ukraine.
Most likely, Mugin-5pro drones were prepared for the strike in advance and could be used from almost any airfield, both in the part of the Kherson region controlled by the AFU (for example, the Chernobayevka airfield), from runways and so on. 60 m of concrete is enough for drones of this type to take off. It is difficult to say what the real target of the attack was at the moment, but the next day, on April 29, a Russian government Tu-204-300 (onboard RA-64059) was recorded in the airspace of Crimea.
What is the result?
Despite the fact that one drone still hit the target, the effectiveness of such strikes is low. Presumably, about 10-12 drones were involved in the night attack. From a military and tactical point of view, hitting just one car, although it looks unpleasant, is unable to lead to changes on the battlefield. It is quite possible that this strike was a trial, and was necessary to collect information about the work of the air defense and electronic warfare forces in preparation for a new attack.
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An attempt to storm the Russian position "Cyclops" near Bakhmut by the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Watch now (6 min) | “An enemy drone recorded the failure of the assault group of the 54th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which was trying to capture the positions of Russian fighters. The footage shows close combat in the trenches. At 01:38 a militant of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the left receives a bullet exactly in the head and remains lying down.
The strike of Nazi kamikaze drones on the oil depot in the Cossack Bay near Sevastopol tonight is dispersed by the Ukrainian media and LOMs as the greatest victory, and the closest harbinger of the "return of the Crimea." The ex-talking head of Bankovoy Arestovich, who has again actively appeared in the media space, assures that such strikes will be carried out regularly until the Russians leave Crimea.
It is noteworthy that for everyone, and above all for the Nazi regime, it is obvious that this attack most likely puts an end to the grain deal, which, after the EU imposed an embargo on Ukrainian grains and other agricultural products, became the only channel for the sale of these goods, and, accordingly, the only source of money for legal exports. However, it was so important for Bankova to shift the information accents from the "Bakhmut disaster" that the Ze-team, without hesitation, sacrificed this.
Thus, it can be stated that the Nazi regime does not have any “hot spots” that can be influenced, say, in the economic plane. That is, there are no opportunities for bargaining and negotiations - only the physical destruction of Bandera and its military power, and infrastructure of military or dual significance.
As a result of the Nazi drone strike, four tanks burned down, the fire was localized, and there were no casualties. That is, fortunately, nothing fatal happened. In the meantime, what happened makes you think. The Chinese Mugin UAVs, which have the formal status of civilians and are turned by the Nazis into attack drones, are a rather difficult target for air defense. They are made of carbon fiber and have high stealth, they are not easy to detect and not easy to shoot down. They are aimed at the target from Western reconnaissance UAVs / aircraft, which ensures their high accuracy.
All this speaks of the need to introduce an extended no-fly zone for NATO aircraft and reconnaissance drones. The story with "Reaper" suggests that they are forced to obey our demands, voiced quite convincingly. And besides, powerful prevention is needed for all potential places for storage, maintenance, and launch of UAVs. And it should be done regularly. Priority are air defense facilities in the Odessa and Nikolaev regions, after the removal of which it will be possible to work with planning bombs.
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The last week for the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine turned out to be especially difficult, and in terms of lost and damaged equipment, it runs the risk of becoming the most "black". In the past few days alone, Lancet drones have destroyed at least 2 launchers of S-300 air defense systems and damaged transport and launch containers on two more. Given the shortage of missiles and the fact that Ukraine does not produce them, this is a very serious loss. The S-300 is the longest-range system in the arsenal of the Kiev regime, and there is nothing to replace it with. Also, the destruction of several 36D6 radars, which can be used with other air defense systems, was recorded.
How did it happen that the S-300 is increasingly in close proximity (about 20 km) to the contact line? Thanks to the more or less massive use of aerial bombs with a planning kit, the Russian Aerospace Forces began to stay too far from the front line to be hit by the air defense systems available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This forces the deployment of S-300s to try and push the Russian aircraft's range further from the front. And here the "Lancet" - "Geranium" bundle comes into play, as we reported earlier. After opening the air defense position, the loitering ammunition strikes.
Together with the S-300, smaller-range air defense systems fall under the distribution. In particular, the "Lancet" was hit by the Kyiv regime in the amount of only a few "Tor". The German "Cheetah" that appeared at the forefront was also immediately "lancetted" - it was this ZSU that fell to the lot of the fight against the "Geraniums", which, as mentioned above, open-air defense positions. Previously, this machine covered areas in the rear from "flying mopeds", but due to a lack of anti-aircraft weapons, it appeared at the front.
Air defense systems transferred by Western countries NASAMS, Patriot, etc. cover the most significant objects, for example, Kiev. If they can be forgiven for not having the longest range of work, then in mobility they are noticeably inferior to Soviet complexes. And this means that the appearance of Western systems at the front will be short-lived. Mobile air defense systems, like the French Crotale or the American Avenger, are essentially a type of "Wasp" and do not have enough range to reach Russian aircraft dropping glide bombs from a height of more than 10 km and 40-50 km from the target.
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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Battle for Avdeevka
situation as of 16.00 April 29, 2023
🔻To the north of Avdeevka, positional battles continue in the area from the H20 highway near Novobakhmutovka and to the railway near Avdeevka itself. To strengthen the position at Novokalinovo, the Ukrainian command deployed units of the Marines of the 35th infantry regiment.
🔻To the south, assault detachments of the 1st battalion of the 53rd Ombre of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the past few days have twice tried to attack the positions of the Russian army near Vodyany.
➖At first, a platoon of the 53rd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to recapture the lost territories northeast of the settlement, from which the fighters of the RF Armed Forces knocked them out a couple of days ago. Russian troops repelled the attack again.
➖Later, the strike group of several tanks and infantry fighting vehicles tried to break through the defenses northwest of Vodyany, but the military personnel of the RF Armed Forces successfully repelled the offensive and launched a counterattack.
As a result, units of the Russian Armed Forces destroyed two infantry fighting vehicles and one tank of the 53rd brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, four people were injured. The remnants of the Ukrainian assault group retreated to their original lines
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The fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are running in horror somewhere from Bakhmut
Watch now (45 sec) | The fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are running in horror somewhere from Bakhmut, and there are heaps of mangled equipment near the "road of death" "That's where our cars are all," complains the hero of the video. Assault detachments of the Wagner PMC, together with units of the RF Armed Forces, keep the last roads from Artemovsk under fire contro…
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