Daily Report from the Ukraine Field for 2022-12-09
News, Telegram, and Twitter Articles
Dr. Michael Vlahos & Col. Douglas Macgregor: Is the war in Ukraine entering its decisive phase? Pt.1
Dr. Michael Vlahos & Col. Douglas Macgregor: Why NATO strategic failure? A war of deceit, denial Pt2
After researching this story, I’ve concluded that everything Viktor Bout is accused of, the US does on a daily basis. Further, none of his dealings broke US law, until a US Sting Operation was launched. The judge in his case is quoted as saying:
Judge Scheindlin, in the interviews, also ruminated over a judge’s influence and the occasions when it goes only so far. She revealed, for example, that she believed that the 25-year sentence she imposed in 2012 on Mr. Bout was excessive and inappropriate.
But because one count carried a mandatory 25-year minimum sentence, she was unable to impose a lesser term.
Mr. Bout had been arrested in Bangkok after an elaborate government sting operation that relied on informers who posed as representatives of a terrorist group who wanted to buy arms to kill American pilots stationed in Colombia. The evidence showed that Mr. Bout had agreed to sell hundreds of surface-to-air missiles, thousands of AK-47 machine guns and five tons of plastic explosives to the informants. Prosecutors had sought a life sentence, but Judge Scheindlin recalled having reservations.
There was no doubt Mr. Bout had been an international arms dealer, she said, but by the time of his arrest, he was “pretty well retired.”
“The question was, ‘Was he still an international arms dealer, and does that matter?’” she continued.
“I’m not defending him,” she said, “but he’s a businessman. He was in the business of selling arms.” He was not, she said, a fighter or a terrorist from Al Qaeda “who lives to blow up civilians in a supermarket.”
“They reeled this guy in,” she said. “They offered him a lot of money.” She added, “I gave the lowest sentence I could possibly give.”
❗️️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Chronicle of a special military operation
for December 9, 2022
🔻Belgorod region:
Ukrainian formations fired at the Pankov farm in the Shebeken urban district, damaged a residential building. There are no victims or injured.
🔻Starobelsk direction:
▪️In the Limansky sector, Russian troops went on the attack and established control over the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the forest belt at the Kremennaya-Makeyevka line.
▪️Artillery duels continue along the entire line of contact: Russian artillery hit enemy positions in Stelmakhivka, Sinkovka, Novoselovsky and Ternakh.
🔻Soledar direction:
▪️Detachments of PMC "Wagner" are cleaning up the village of Yakovlevka. The RF Armed Forces knocked out units of the 10th Guards Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from three strongholds north of Berestovoye.
The Ukrainian command is transferring reinforcements and strengthening the defense in an attempt to avoid the encirclement of Soledar from the northeast.
▪️On the Bakhmut (Artyomovsky) section of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they tried to counterattack in Opytnoye, Russian troops held their positions.
Fierce battles continue in the southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut. The enemy throws in the attack the newly arrived units, trying to stabilize the front.
▪️Hospitals and hospitals in Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Konstantinovka and Kyiv are overcrowded due to huge losses on all sectors of the front.
🔻Luhansk People's Republic:
Ukrainian formations from cannon artillery fired at the city of Svatovo, damage was received to a residential building and a gas distribution station.
🔻Donetsk direction:
▪️As part of preparations for a possible offensive, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is deploying units of the 59th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Donetsk.
▪️In the Toretsk (Dzerzhinsky) sector, to strengthen the defense, the enemy deployed two infantry fighting vehicles with personnel to Toretsk.
▪️Motorized rifle units of the RF Armed Forces continue to fight with Ukrainian formations in the center of Maryinka.
▪️At the Ugledar sector, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are concentrating forces in the area of the Vremyevsky ledge. Enemy UAVs operate along the entire front line.
▪️Ukrainian formations from rocket and cannon artillery shelled the settlements of the Donetsk agglomeration: including residential buildings and the gas pipeline of Donetsk, at least three civilians were killed.
🔻Zaporozhye direction:
▪️English-speaking units of the "International Defense Legion of Ukraine" are used in small groups at the Bolshaya Lepetikha-Konstantinovka line to search for rear facilities of the RF Armed Forces and sabotage them.
▪️Artillery duels continue along the line of contact: the Russian Armed Forces have worked on enemy positions in Orekhovo, Dorozhnyanka, Gulyaipole and Novodanilovka.
🔻Kherson direction
▪️DRG of the "International Defense Legion of Ukraine" on boats reconnoiter the firing positions of the RF Armed Forces along the left bank of the Dnieper and direct Ukrainian artillery from the direction of Ochakov.
▪️Russian units attacked enemy concentration areas in Chernobaevka, Kazatsky, Antonovka and Berislav.
Ukrainian formations engage mortars fired at civilian objects in Nova Kakhovka and Hola Pristan.
Map
https://t.me/SLGmaps/83
#rybar
Our old take:
Our revised take:
Out initial Best Guess On Final Map could still happen, but is becoming unlikely. Out initial map leaned heavily on a political compromise where Ukraine conceded territory of majority Russian speakers. The assumption was that Ukraine would rather sue for peace than lose so many lives, and that Russia would rather not govern regions more hostile to Russia.
It’s clear now that lives lost is not a factor. The west wants to bleed Russia. The west will fight to the last Ukrainian Soldier and Polish Mercenary.
We must now take into consideration other factors.
A peaceful settlement is no longer possible.
Ukraine shells civilians and nuclear power plants. A buffer zone is needed.
Ukraine will use the Dnieper River water supplies as a tactical weapon. Control of the dams on the river is required to remove the threat downstream.
Strikes on Russia from Ukraine controlled Oblasts east of the Dnieper are too much of a threat without a settlement. A buffer is needed.
Outside of a strong settlement, the post war Ukraine economy will need to be subdued to keep the threat down. Loss of all ports and eastern agriculture will help accomplish that.
Large numbers of civilians have fled areas east of the Dnieper. Those remaining are more likely to accept Russian control.
Sharing a river border with Kiev will give Russia tactical leverage should it be needed. Exchanging shells across the new border will have far greater consequences for Ukraine, with Kiev on the front line.
Our new map sees the Dnieper River as the border in the north from Belarus to Cherkasy, and then a relatively straight line from Cherkasy to the northern border of Transnistria. This map affords a river barrier, river control, buffer territory, and a minimal front line. It incorporates all of the desired territory Russia seeks. It makes the most sense outside of a political settlement.
The best guess on the battle progression is as follows:
Massed Russian forces in Belgorod (1) will launch a major offensive west and south. Control of the Dnieper River and Ukraine resupply routes will be the priority. Kharkov, Sumy, and other areas will be cut off and taken after. Some of the massed Russian forces from the south will move northward as a pincer. The west will have difficulty rallying additional outrage so far. Most citizens in the west will not see the significance.
Once the East West front has progressed sufficiently, the best opportunity for a push on Odessa presents itself. Attacking from the south (3) involves several major river barriers and entrenched fortifications. If Ukraine still resists, this would be difficult and bloody for both sides. In this event, Russia could make a major push from Belarus (2). Such a push would happen far west of Kiev, bypassing it, and heading straight for Odessa, Mykolaiv and Kherson’s west bank. Mykolaiv and Kherson’s west bank will need to be a top priority, as it opens an east west resupply route that is far shorter and less vulnerable than north south from Belarus. This operation will generate major alarm outrage in the west. It needs to be fast and decisive, and needs to disentangle Belarus swiftly. The west is unlikely to tolerate a large Russian presence in Western Ukraine for very long. A north south supply route west of Kiev would be very difficult to maintain.
I think Russia is growing tired of this shit and will just invade and takeover Kiev.
Then we can call it kiyev again. Not keeeve. Kiyevv. Two syllables.
Key-yev.
I hope these fucking ignorant Americans like myself can learn to pronounce a few Russian words properly and stop hurting my ears
I can't see how a movement from Belarus to Odessa can be successful, given the slow progress of even getting to the Dnieper. Maybe the defenses are thinner to the west.