I can't see how a movement from Belarus to Odessa can be successful, given the slow progress of even getting to the Dnieper. Maybe the defenses are thinner to the west.
Unless there isn't much for AFU left in the west. However, I think such as axis of attack would bring about far more Polish "volunteers" and probably other close by country forces as well, of course they would also be "volunteers". Maybe the Russians would call NATO's hand if they did such a move, either get in the war full time or cut your losses and get out. But it would be a much riskier geopolitical move than taking most everything east of the Dnieper...
It's definitely riskier in terms of pulling more western support.
The question is, does Odessa remain Ukrainian or Russian? Since no peaceful resolution is coming, a military solution is required. If Odessa remains Ukrainian, it will become a defacto NATO base and NATO Black Sea Port. It will remove the possibility of forcing a peace. Crimea will remain an easy target. Aside from a settlement, I see no way that Odessa can be left alone.
Taking Odessa from the east could be a fiasco for Russia. The logistics, terrain, and defenses are intense. The entire front in that direction leaves no room for maneuvers and makes Russia vulnerable. Odessa is easily resupplied supplied from the west by Poland. So far, Russian casualties are tolerable. If a bloodbath ensues trying to reach Odessa from the east, Russian home support may suffer.
A combined strike from the north and east is bold, but cuts off Odessa from easy resupply via Poland. It provides room to maneuver, encircle, and eliminates the head on assault. The center of western Ukraine is likely less defended than the east west approach to Odessa.
An attack from the north timed with an attack from the east may be able to take out Odessa, without keeping the supply lines from the north open for long.
In the west, everyone has been led to believe that Russia intends to take all of Ukraine. It will be stunning, but not unthinkable, to see Russian forces moving from Belarus to Odessa. If they are seen as bypassing population centers to reach Odessa, western opinion may not support WW3 to stop them.
I think Russia is growing tired of this shit and will just invade and takeover Kiev.
Then we can call it kiyev again. Not keeeve. Kiyevv. Two syllables.
Key-yev.
I hope these fucking ignorant Americans like myself can learn to pronounce a few Russian words properly and stop hurting my ears
I can't see how a movement from Belarus to Odessa can be successful, given the slow progress of even getting to the Dnieper. Maybe the defenses are thinner to the west.
Unless there isn't much for AFU left in the west. However, I think such as axis of attack would bring about far more Polish "volunteers" and probably other close by country forces as well, of course they would also be "volunteers". Maybe the Russians would call NATO's hand if they did such a move, either get in the war full time or cut your losses and get out. But it would be a much riskier geopolitical move than taking most everything east of the Dnieper...
It's definitely riskier in terms of pulling more western support.
The question is, does Odessa remain Ukrainian or Russian? Since no peaceful resolution is coming, a military solution is required. If Odessa remains Ukrainian, it will become a defacto NATO base and NATO Black Sea Port. It will remove the possibility of forcing a peace. Crimea will remain an easy target. Aside from a settlement, I see no way that Odessa can be left alone.
Taking Odessa from the east could be a fiasco for Russia. The logistics, terrain, and defenses are intense. The entire front in that direction leaves no room for maneuvers and makes Russia vulnerable. Odessa is easily resupplied supplied from the west by Poland. So far, Russian casualties are tolerable. If a bloodbath ensues trying to reach Odessa from the east, Russian home support may suffer.
A combined strike from the north and east is bold, but cuts off Odessa from easy resupply via Poland. It provides room to maneuver, encircle, and eliminates the head on assault. The center of western Ukraine is likely less defended than the east west approach to Odessa.
An attack from the north timed with an attack from the east may be able to take out Odessa, without keeping the supply lines from the north open for long.
In the west, everyone has been led to believe that Russia intends to take all of Ukraine. It will be stunning, but not unthinkable, to see Russian forces moving from Belarus to Odessa. If they are seen as bypassing population centers to reach Odessa, western opinion may not support WW3 to stop them.
It's all just a best guess!