Russia-Ukraine Reports - 2023-08-20
August 19, Soltsy airfield, Novgorod region. A Ukrainian UAV destroyed a Russian bomber Tu-22M3.
A Skeptic's Best Guess On Final Map (Revised)
Our previous Best Guess was based on a political solution. It’s clear now that lives lost is not a factor. A political solution is now all but ruled out. The west wants to bleed Russia, without any particular strategy. The west will fight to the last Ukrainian Soldier and Polish Mercenary.
"Olaf Scholz calls protesters, who are calling for peace talks, "fallen angels straight from hell"
https://www.rt.com/news/581547-pentagon-struggles-ammunition-ukraine-materials/
Pentagon facing ammunition crisis – WaPo
20 Aug, 2023 16:40
A shortage of raw materials has left the US scrambling to restock its arsenal as the Ukraine conflict drags on
Ukrainian soldier prepares shells for artillery in Donetsk © Getty Images / Diego Herrera Carcedo
The US Department of Defense is having trouble keeping up with the demands of the Ukraine conflict, the Washington Post reported on Saturday, warning that failure to sustain current production levels could jeopardize security on the home front.
US military contractors are soon expected to double the rate of standard NATO artillery round production recorded prior to the current phase of the conflict. However, even churning out 28,000 shells per month is insufficient to satisfy what the outlet called “Ukraine’s astonishing hunger for artillery ammunition,” let alone shore up depleted reserves at home.
A shortage of raw materials – particularly the explosive TNT, which the US no longer produces – has hampered the Pentagon’s efforts to restock its own arsenal, which has been severely depleted by its support for Ukraine. Washington currently obtains much of its TNT from Poland but has been searching for new suppliers, including in Japan, after losing production partner Zarya when the region where the factory was located voted to become part of Russia in last year’s referendum.
White House admits concerns over ‘slow’ Ukrainian counteroffensive
Limited supplies of the propellant used to move artillery shells through gun barrels are also hampering defense contractors’ production capabilities, according to Czech propellant charge manufacturer Explosia. Spokesman Martin Vencl told the Post that the raw materials required to make propellant, including nitroglycerin and nitrocellulose, are in short supply.
Bureaucratic hurdles also mean that just 40.8% of the Pentagon’s $44.5 billion in Ukraine-related production contracts have been finalized, according to the Post. An industry expert from the Center for Strategic and International Studies defended the figure as better-than-usual performance, as concluding a major defense contract normally takes as long as 16 months.
An unnamed Pentagon official suggested that the solution to avoiding future shortages was to maintain “consistent high demand” for ammunition. The Pentagon should “continue to procure at that level over a longer period of time so that we have not just healthy stocks, but a healthy production and industrial base that’s able to meet them,” the person told the Post. The Pentagon hopes to increase output to 1 million shells per year by the fall of 2025.
“One of the lessons learned out of the Ukrainian experience is we need to go back and revisit those minimum standards [for ammunition stocks]. And we may have underestimated,” Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told reporters last month.
US President Joe Biden requested another $20.6 billion for Ukraine from Congress last week, even as officials began to quietly admit that Kiev’s counteroffensive has been a failure. The much-hyped initiative, which has retaken just a handful of villages since June, has cost Ukraine 43,000 troops and nearly 5,000 pieces of equipment, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.
https://www.rt.com/news/581547-pentagon-struggles-ammunition-ukraine-materials/
Kupyanskoe direction.
Today, the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed one of the crossings in the Kupyansky direction with two UFAB-500M-62.
The enemy on the left bank of the Oskol had the last crossing in the Borovaya area.
At the moment, the supply of the enemy grouping, which is now defending on the left bank of the Oskol, is becoming, to put it mildly, worthless - it can be argued that the enemy grouping is completely cut off.
Our Army is preparing for a large-scale strike, for this
all is ready.
t.me/polk105/10334
https://t.me/vicktop55
Washington Post:
The stakes in the U.S. effort to shake up a sclerotic defense acquisition system are particularly high as Kyiv tries to claw back territory from Russian control in a slow-moving counteroffensive whose fate, U.S. officials now say, hinges on the West’s ability to satisfy Ukraine’s astonishing hunger for artillery ammunition.
But industry experts warn of major challenges in sustaining an elevated output of arms and equipment needed not just to aid Ukraine but to ensure the United States’ own security in potential conflicts with Russia or China. Those include overcoming scarcity of key inputs including TNT and maintaining expanded capacity amid fluctuating budgets and uncertainty about future military needs.
Martin Vencl, a spokesman for the state-owned Czech company Explosia, which makes propellant charges, noted the scarcity of related raw materials, such as nitroglycerin and nitrocellulose. The company is running at full capacity to make propellant for 155mm rounds, but long-term investment is needed to double its output, which the company hopes to achieve by 2026, Vencl said.
Camille Grand, who served as NATO’s assistant secretary general for defense investment from 2016 to 2022, noted that the recent conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq did not consume artillery at anywhere close to the rapid pace as the war in Ukraine has, meaning that suppliers were not forced to tap so deeply into their stocks.
“We’re all relearning what it means to do mass production of ammunition, which had become a ... nonstarter” for many NATO members, Grand said.
Experts say it is important to avoid what one defense official called a “boom and bust” cycle by ensuring that Western militaries continue effectively to signal a demand for these weapons. Failure to do so could result in factory lines going cold, as occurred with Stinger missiles, with the manufacturer of the shoulder-fired missiles having to enlist retirees to help get production going again.
The challenge goes beyond accelerating near-term production. The Pentagon needs to “continue to procure at that level over a longer period of time so that we have not just healthy stocks, but a healthy production and industrial base that’s able to meet them,” the second defense official said.
https://t.me/SLGmaps/377
#Article (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/19/artillery-ammunition-ukraine-pentagon/)
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
[ Album ]
Southfront:
Ukrainian loitering munitions struck a Russian reconnaissance group along with their boat near Dnipryany;
Clashes between the AFU and the Russian Army continue near the Antonovsky Bridge;
Up to 15 Ukrainian servicemen, 2 motor vehicles, 2 howitzers, 1 Msta-B gun were destroyed in the Kherson region over the past day, according to the Russian MOD.
The Russian Army repelled the attacks of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade of the AFU near Rabotino;
The Russian Army repelled Ukrainian attacks near Urozhaynoye;
Russian artillery struck AFU positions in Staromayorskoye;
Russian artillery struck AFU positions near Priyutnoye;
Clashes between the Russian Army and the AFU continue in Mariinka;
Ukrainian artillery destroyed an ammunition depot of Russian forces near Klyuchove;
Up to 15 Ukrainian servicemen, 2 motor vehicles, 2 howitzers, 1 Msta-B gun were destroyed in Kherson region, according to the Russian MOD;
Up to 190 Ukrainian servicemen, 1 armored vehicle, 2 motor vehicles, 3 artillery systems in the Zaporozhye region, according to the Russian MOD;
The AFU reportedly hit 2 areas of accumulation of Russian weapons and military equipment, 4 artillery units, 2 control points, 2 radio stations of Russian Army in the past 24 hours.
#source (https://southfront.press/military-situation-in-southern-ukraine-on-august-19-2023-map-update/)
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
Ukraine Loses Last Chance to Reclaim Lost Territories - Washington Post
The American edition published another article criticizing the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukrainian units were able to advance only a short distance, while Russian troops are actively advancing in the Kharkiv region. Kyiv's failure to succeed could undermine its support from the international community.
The Ukrainian public is tired of the war, while the campaign to end support for Kyiv is intensifying in Washington. Military analysts note that without modern weapons and full mobilization, the Ukrainian armed forces will not be able to succeed. They also believe that Ukrainian attacks using UAVs on Russian territory are psychological in nature and will not be able to turn the tide of hostilities.
US officials are unhappy with Kyiv's move away from their recommended tactics to conserve personnel, which led to the failure of the counteroffensive.
Bob Hamilton, a retired US Army colonel, said that Kyiv does not have the capacity to build enough UAVs to launch an attack on Russian territory that would undermine its ability to fight.
#Article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/20/ukraine-counteroffensive-analysis-war-russia/
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
❗️The situation in the South-Donetsk direction
▪️ In the Vremevsky sector over the past day, the enemy did not leave attempts by small infantry groups to gain a foothold in the forest belts east of Urozhaynoye for further access to the Staromlynovka-Kermenchik line. Our artillery struck at the exposed positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Also, accumulations of enemy manpower in Urozhayne itself are still being affected. FPV drones manage to knock out vehicles in the depths of enemy battle formations.
After the TOS strikes to the west of Staromayorskoye, enemy activity in this direction decreased. Staromayorskoye itself is also subjected to regular artillery "processing" after enemy attempts to gain a foothold in partially surviving houses were revealed in the center and south of the center of the village.
As for the coming day, the marines operating in this direction note a suspicious lull in the work of enemy artillery. Apparently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are building up strength, finishing probing the defense of the RF Armed Forces in this area and preparing a massive roll forward.
▪️ The situation remains relatively calm in the Ugledarsky section . A planned defeat of enemy targets identified by reconnaissance in Ugledar itself and in the Novomikhailovka area is underway.
#source (https://t.me/voin_dv/4493)
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
The situation in the Kupyansk direction
At night, the RF Armed Forces continued offensive operations.
Settlement Sinkovka in a tactical environment. The supply route is completely cut and is under our control. Soon the settlements of Kislovka and the settlements of Kotlyarovka will be taken in pincers. At night, arrivals of FABs along Petropalovka were observed.
In Kupyansk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine completely evacuated the hospital. There is practically nothing left. At night, our DRG sent "hello" to the residents of Kupyansk.
Also, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carry out incomprehensible maneuvers. From the zero-first line - they ask for evacuation and try to escape on their own, as the command throws them to certain death. At the same time, new forces are coming to the Kupyansky district.
#source (https://t.me/ukraina_ru/165400)
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
Leopard and T-72 of the enemy became sad after meeting with our artillery.
AFU again thought to attack, but the rotary-winged pilots BURNED all his plans along with the M113!
Blazed in the best traditions of "Desert Storm"
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (20 August 2023)
▫️ In Zaporozhye direction, the Russian grouping of forces repelled 8 attacks launched by the enemy close to Rabotino and Verbovoye (Zaporozhye).
▫️The enemy's losses amounted to uo to 135 servicemen, 2 tanks, 2 IFVs, 2 Stryker APCs, 3 motor vehicles, a Krab self-propelled artillery system, a M777 artillery system, as well as a FH-79, a M119 howitzers, and an AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar.
▫️ In Donetsk direction, the Yug Group of Forces repelled 6 enemy attacks close to Andreyevka, Veseloye, Krasnogorovka, Pervomaiskoye, Veseloye, Maiorsk, and Staromikhailovka DPR over the past 24 hours.
▫️The enemy suffered losses of over 280 servicemen killed and wounded, 6 IFVs, 2 AFVs, 2 motor vehicles, a M777 artillery system, and D-20 and D-30 howitzers in this direction in the past 24 hours.
▫Field ammunition depots of the AFU were obliterated close to Kostantinovka and Ivano-Daryevka DPR.
▫️In South Donetsk direction, the Vostok Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on the enemy neat Staromayorskoye and Urozhainoye DPR.
▫️The Russian Armed Forces disabled 4 SRG detached from the 56th Mechanised Brigade and 38th Marine Brigade of the AFU close to Marfopol, Chervonoye (Zaporozhye), and Urozhainoye DPR.
▫️ More than 130 servicemen, a tank, 3 AFVs, 3 motor vehicles, a Msta-B howitzer, and 1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery unit were eliminated.
▫️ In Kupyansk direction, as a result of actions of the Zapad Group of Forces, 6 enemy attacks were successfully repelled close to Olshana, Sinkovka, Ivanovka (Kharkov), and Novoselovskoye LPR.
▫️The ene️my's losses in this direction amounted to up to 60 servicemen, 2 IFVs, 3 motor vehicles, 1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and a D-30 howitzer.
▫️ In Krasny Liman direction, 3 enemy attacks close to Torskoye DPR and Belogorovka LPR were repelled by the Tsentr Group of Forces.
▫️Up to 70 servicemen, as well as 2 AFVs, 2 pick-up trucks were neutralised over the past 24 hours.
▫️ In Kherson direction, as a result of the shelling, enemy losses totalled up to 30 servicemen and 2 motor vehicles.
▫️ An AFU ammunition depot was destroyed near Ochakov (Nikolayev).
▫️ Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of groups of forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation engaged manpower and military hardware of the enemy in 153 areas during the past day.
▫️ Air defence systems intercepted 3 HIMARS projectiles, and shot down 1 HARM anti-radiation missile.
▫️Moreover, 23 AFU's UAVs have been shot down near Novopetrikovka, Zaitsevo, Yakovlevka, Pavlovka, Semigorie DPR, Tokmak (Zaporozhye), Kamenka, Novoalekseyevka (Kherson) and Lisichansk LPR.
#MoD (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/9264)
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
Orekhov direction. Burning equipment of the enemy from among the tightened reserves.
🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Slaughter at Kleshcheevka: the defeat of the advancing enemy tank column
On the southern flank of Artyomovsk, the special forces of the RF Armed Forces, the special forces of the Russian Guard "Akhmat" and army artillerymen met with fire the advancing armored group of the enemy between Kleshcheevka and Andreevka. The coordinated actions of spotters and gunners led to the defeat of the attacking armored group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The enemy lost their IFVs, including Bradleys, tanks, and several infantry platoons.
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
Ukraine War Analyses
Everyone knows the western media narrative already. The western narrative is that Putin is insane, dying, and trying to rebuild the Soviet Union. If you are content with that, stick with MSNBC. Our normal format is daily reports. This section is for articles, discussions, and data that remain relevant over time. Each is a clickable link to a full articl…
Post 762.
Thanks, as always.
Thanks also.
Re the report that 10,000 Poles have died fighting for the UAF. I find that claim difficult to accept as it would imply WIA of some 30,000 plus a number of POWs also. I think we might have noticed this before? I think it might be a mis-reporting of 10,000 KIA,MIA and WIA total? That sounds more plausibe to me.