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War Reports - 2023-12-17

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A Skeptic
Dec 16, 2023
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Lord Bebo on X: πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ίβ€ΌοΈπŸš¨ BREAKING: Looks like the Patriot system that Germany delivered to Ukraine was destroyed yesterday with hypersonic missiles.

β€”> The Ukrainian Air Force said β€œwe’ll not going to comment what was hit” and various credible channels like yurasumy report the destruction.

A battery of Patriot air defense systems sent by Germany to Ukraine was destroyed by a Kinzhal missile near Zhitomir, west of Kyiv.

There is also a claim that it could have been a battery, partly divided between Kiev and Odessa, and that it was withdrawn to the west after the shelling of the center of Kyiv.

Five launchers, one command vehicle, and one air surveillance radar were destroyed.

Also destroyed were 80 ready-to-fire missiles worth $5.5 million and 160 spare missiles in stock.

Their value is $1.32 billion.

Over the past eight years, the United States has ordered between 108 and 328 new MIM-104 missiles. In one blow, Russia virtually wiped out a year's production.

During the attacks on Kyiv, the air defense system was integrated with the radar of the AEGIS complex and long-range radar detection and control aircraft in Poland and Romania and tried to shoot down the Kinzhals, but was destroyed.

Thus, the number of Patriot air defense systems destroyed in Ukraine has increased to four.

β€” source yurasumy, militarist and slavyngrad




Understanding American Foreign Policy

A Skeptic
Β·
October 19, 2023
Understanding American Foreign Policy

This short collection of articles will give you a better understanding of how America conducts Foreign Policy.

Read full story

A Skeptic's Best Guess On Final Map (Revised 2023-06-15)

June 15, 2023
A Skeptic's Best Guess On Final Map (Revised 2023-06-15)

Our previous Best Guess was based on a political solution. It’s clear now that lives lost is not a factor. A political solution is now all but ruled out. The west wants to bleed Russia, without any particular strategy. The west will fight to the last Ukrainian Soldier and Polish Mercenary.

Read full story


John’s Substack
UnHerd Interview on Gaza & Ukraine
I did another interview with Freddie Sayers on 12 December 2023. Much of it focuses on my substack article on Gaza: β€œDeath and Destruction” Freddy questions me on whether a realist like me can offer moral judgments on another state’s behavior β€” as I do regarding Israeli behavior in Gaza. He pushes me on all sorts of other issues involving Ukraine as well …
Read more
a year ago Β· 52 likes Β· 18 comments Β· John J. Mearsheimer


#UkraineRussiaWar

🌐 Place: #Marinka

πŸ•° Date: ~15.12.2023

πŸ“Œ Coordinates: 47.9561994, 37.4838016

πŸ“ Description: The Russian military brutally stopped the counterattack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Marinka.

πŸ–₯ id: 16122023.0834

βœ‰οΈsource: https://t.me/nm_dnr/11427


#UkraineRussiaWar

🌐 Place: #Novomykhailivka

πŸ•° Date: ~15.12.2023

πŸ“Œ Coordinates: 47.8550554, 37.5136854

πŸ“ Description: The Russian TOS dealt a crazy blow to the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Novomykhailivka.

πŸ–₯ id: 16122023.0843

βœ‰οΈsource: https://t.me/dugout_uncle_zhora/423


#UkraineRussiaWar

🌐 Place: #Chernobylets

πŸ•° Date: ~15.12.2023

πŸ“Œ Coordinates: 48.57256, 37.95438

πŸ“ Description: Russian FPV drones attack Ukrainian Armed Forces positions in Chernobylets.

πŸ–₯ id: 16122023.0850

βœ‰οΈsource: https://t.me/creamy_caprice/3612



#UkraineRussiaWar

🌐 Place: #Chernobylets

πŸ•° Date: ~15.12.2023

πŸ“Œ Coordinates: 0:00-0:20 48.565850, 37.961698

0:20-1:00 48.566287, 37.961420

1:40-2:12 48.567859, 37.959033

πŸ“ Description: Russian drones carry out multiple attacks on Ukrainian Armed Forces positions in Chernobylets.

πŸ–₯ id: 16122023.0902

βœ‰οΈsource: https://t.me/rian_ru/225001


#UkraineRussiaWar

🌐 Place: #Verbove

πŸ•° Date: ~15.12.2023

πŸ“Œ Coordinates: 47.462391, 35.943676

πŸ“ Description: The Russian military destroys groups of Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Verbove area.

πŸ–₯ id: 16122023.0830

βœ‰οΈsource: https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/13176


#UkraineRussiaWar

🌐 Place: #Vuhledar

πŸ•° Date: ~ november-december 2023

πŸ“Œ Coordinates: 47.758922, 37.246082

47.755973, 37.259668

47.764698, 37.215173

47.782528, 37.322875

πŸ“ Description: Russian MLRS are massively attacking positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Vuhledar area.

πŸ–₯ id: 16122023.1405

βœ‰οΈsource: https://t.me/dugout_uncle_zhora/424


Rand has released their thoughts (https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/12/looking-back-on-the-big-policy-stories-of-2023.html) on the world in 2023 and it included a section on "Analyzing Russia's War in Ukraine".

Here it is in all its glory:

Russia's wider invasion of Ukraine is approaching the two-year mark. In 2023, the world watched as the fighting dragged on, with no clear end in sight.

Over the past year, RAND experts have been examining this conflict from every angle, offering a wide range of perspectives, and publishing research on topics like resistance by Ukrainian civilians, Russia's logistical struggles, and who's winning the information war.

RAND experts have argued that the conflict is a winnable war for Ukraine and its backers, whose support remains critical. Researchers also analyzed the risk of escalation, including the grim possibility of Russian nuclear use, and identified implications for U.S. and NATO policymakers to help prevent the fight from intensifying even further.

RAND experts also wrote about America's interest in avoiding a drawn-out war in Ukraine. They emphasized that the United States cannot alone determine how long the fighting lasts, but there are steps Washington could take to make an eventual negotiated resolution more likely.

We also looked ahead to Ukraine's reconstruction. RAND researchers offered a formula for a successful rebuilding effort: a partnership where Ukraine sets the priorities, the United States leads on security assistance, and the European Union spearheads reform and economic assistance.

We'll continue analyzing the conflict in Ukraine in 2024.

⭐️ Don't forget, Rand are the best and the brightest in America!

Two Majors (http://t.me/two_majors)


βš”οΈSITREPβš”οΈ DECEMBER 15

◾️Russian assault smashes into Stepovoye (https://t.me/IntelRepublic/30663) and takes most of village under control, also pushing Kiev army out of surrounding areas (top map).

◾️Pobeda comes into view of Russian troops as they continue push South of Maryinka (https://t.me/IntelRepublic/31595) (bottom left map).

◾️Russian forces reach first buildings of Novomikhailovka as fighting against Kiev army begins in urban areas (bottom middle map).

◾️Outskirts of Maryinka become Kiev army graveyard with French-supplied armor and piles of Ukrainian bodies left smouldering after Russian attack (bottom right vid), while past week sees over 1,580 Ukrainian soldiers dead or wounded in Donetsk Republic.

Boost here (http://t.me/IntelRepublic?boost)! @IntelRepublic


⚑️ (https://t.me/sitrepmaps/5368)πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦βš”οΈ Front #Summary for 15 Dec 2023 by 19:23⚑️

πŸ”ΉIn #Kherson Direction, our army is diligently worsening the situation of the AFU. Based on reports from the field, our troops are not giving the enemy the opportunity to rotate. The next boats on the #Dnieper were hit. Yesterday, our anti-aircraft gunners shot down an Mi-8 helicopter near #Tyaginka. Despite these point successes, the situation for our army remains difficult. Our military cannot suppress the Ukrainian artillery, which is in full force on the other bank. The AFU shell the rear settlements on the left bank. By morning, three people were seriously wounded on the #Alyoshki - #Radensk motorway. A second drone strike attacked an ambulance that had travelled to the site. Fortunately, the medics were not injured.

πŸ”ΉIn #Zaporozhye Direction, our units are entrenched in new positions after advancing at #Verbovoye. At #Rabotino, the initiative also remains on our side, the Russians are moving forward. The weather still does not allow the full use of armored vehicles, but the artillery is working at full strength on both sides.

πŸ”ΉIn #SouthDonetsk Direction at #Maryinka, our forces are consolidating on the outskirts and continuing their advance along the reservoir. Southwest of the town there are again local successes at #Pobeda. Here our military still have to fight for key heights. Near #Novomikhaylovka without changes, heavy clashes are ongoing.

πŸ”ΉIn #Donetsk Direction, the operation to encircle #Avdeyevka continues. The enemy is also preparing for an assault and is actively gathering reserves. On the southern flank, the battle line is unchanged. Ice makes it difficult to move equipment. Therefore, attacks on the ground have slowed down. Our army has intensified the work of the TOSs. On the northern flank, our forces are advancing on a broad front towards #Novokalinovo and #Berdychi. At #Tochmash, our infantry has made significant advances along the railway tracks. From #Stepovoye it is reported that about two-thirds of the village is under our control, as are the plantings around it. North of #Stepovoye, ours have consolidated to the west of the railway tracks.

πŸ”ΉIn #Bakhmut Direction, our forces continue the fierce assault on AFU positions towards #Krasnoye (#Ivanovskoye). Over the past two days, ours significantly expanded the zone of control on the western outskirts of the so-called dachas. On the northern flank, at #Bogdanovka, our military managed to entrench on the eastern outskirts of the village. We also advanced to the southeastern outskirts of Orekhovo-Vasilyevka. Southwards, near #Kleshcheyevka our army is storming the heights northwest of the village. The AFU still manages to hold positions, and ours are able to maintain control over the dominant height and complicate their logistics.

πŸ”ΉIn #Svatovo Direction, counter battles continue in the northern part of #Sinkovka. Active clashes have resumed near #Ivanovka. Our army is trying to break through the AFU defences at the #Zagoruykovka - #Timkovka - #Kislovka line. So far, without much success.

t.me/sitreports /@olegtsarov (https://t.me/olegtsarov/9594)/#smo/


Hundreds of Israelis protested in Tel Aviv after the shooting (https://t.me/OstashkoNews/110413?single) of hostages

Earlier, IDF soldiers shot dead three Israeli hostages during fighting in Shejaiya, mistaking them for Hamas militants. The protesters are demanding urgent action to return the remaining hostages from captivity and also want Netanyahu's resignation.

At the end of November, a truce was established between Hamas and Israel, after which several rounds of exchange of prisoners and captives were successfully held. However, the truce was interrupted, allegedly after a rocket was launched from the Gaza Strip, which was intercepted by Israeli air defence - after which the IDF immediately resumed bombing the region and the ground operation.

@Slavyangrad


Israeli media published photos of the dead hostages (https://t.me/izvestia/155469)

Yotam Haim, Samer Talalka and Alon Shamriz allegedly escaped from captivity and approached the military in the Gaza Strip, who mistook them for Hamas members and shot them. The IDF is conducting an internal investigation following the incident.

A spontaneous protest began in Tel Aviv after the IDF reported the shooting of three hostages in the Gaza Strip (https://t.me/izvestia/155461), whom the Israeli army mistook for representatives of Hamas.

Among the demands is the resignation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Personnel: social networks

-Investigation will find no wrong doing I'm Guessing... that would be Anti-Zionist

@Slavyangrad


R-37M hunting it's prey as seen via the radar of a MiG-31BM while in track while scan mode.

@Slavyangrad (http://t.me/Slavyangrad)


β€ΌοΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ΄β€β˜ οΈIs Ukraine planning a new counter-offensive next year? β€”Welt

β–ͺ️The United States received a wish list from Ukraine, which includes Black Hawk and Apache combat helicopters, F-16 and F-18 fighter jets, missile systems, Abrams tanks, UAVs and ammunition.

β–ͺ️Ukraine can still count on 95% of all weapons systems supplied from the West, since they have not yet been used at the front.

β–ͺ️Zaluzhny was not a supporter of the start of the summer offensive. A quick breakthrough was impossible and a change in strategy was a smart move, important time was gained.

β–ͺ️In the south, the Ukrainian Armed Forces hold a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper and continue to expand it. From here it is only 60 km to Crimea. Crimea is a weak point for Russians.

β–ͺ️The bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper can become a starting point. Having fighter jets, helicopters and drones, Ukraine could support the offensive, especially since there are practically no Russian fortifications here.

Zin Note: "Weak point" being a matter of perspective. This "bridgehead" in Krynki has been a graveyard for the AFU thus far.

Full Article (https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus249056460/Ukraine-Krieg-95-Prozent-unbenutzte-Waffen-kann-Kiew-den-Krieg-noch-gewinnen.html)

@Slavyangrad


πŸ”ž Meatgrinder at Maryinka: the counterattack ended in disaster for the Ukrainian Armed Forces πŸ”ž

The Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a suicidal attempt at a counterattack in the Maryinsky direction. An attempt to advance enemy infantry and armored vehicles was detected in time by the UAV of the 5th brigade and the enemy was defeated and suffered heavy losses in manpower and equipment.

Also in the Maryinsky direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces infantry is attempting to gain a foothold in basements and destroyed buildings, but they are destroyed by FPV drones of the 5th brigade of the 1st Donetsk Army Corps.

@Slavyangrad



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